1990-2050 sulphur dioxide emissions data from ECLIPSE v5a for use in Met Office

HadCM3 family GCMs

Sarah Sparrow · David Wallom · Karsten Haustein Friedericke Otto · Zbigniew Klimont · Chris Heyes ·

William Ingram

Motivation• SO2 emissions are a major source of

uncertainty for climate model studies.

• In CMIP5 data the contribution from observational data ceases after 2005 and 10 year old projection data gives future estimates.

Use more recent observations and projection scenarios from the EC FP7 ECLIPSE v5a global emissions dataset:

• baseline current air quality legislation (CLE). • climate mitigation (2 degrees) CLE. • maximum feasible reduction (MFR) scenarios.

Enable use of this data in other climate models• Met Office ancillary files• NetCDF output files.

ProcedureThe 5 yearly SO2 land estimates from ECLIPSE have been• combined with shipping data• split into surface and high level

emissions• rescaled to appropriate units• converted to N96 resolution• interpolated in time to give

monthly values• converted to Met Office

ancillary file format.

Details can be found in:Sparrow, S., Wallom, D., Klimont, Z., Heyes, C. and Ingram, W. (2016), 1990-2050 sulphur dioxide emissions data from ECLIPSE v5a for use in MetOffice HadCM3 family GCMs. Scientific Data, submitted.

Vertical SplitSolid lines - vertical split based on standard Met Office assumptions i.e. high level = 100% Energy and power plants + 50% Industry emissions

Dashed lines - vertical split improved by allocating emissions from copper and nickel smelting in Russia, Canada, Latin America and the Caribbean to the high level.

Baseline CLE 2009-2020

Baseline CLE – RCP4.52009-2020Surface SO2 Emissions

High Level SO2 Emissions

Comparison with RCP4.5

Attribution of SO2 emissions in Tmax

Indian and North East China Cooling • Consistent with increased aerosol• Occurs during SON when incoming SW

radiation is strong

Two 500-member ensembles for Weather@Home South Asian region

• RCP4.5 SO2 emissions• Baseline CLE SO2 emissions

Compare ensembles to see whether there is an attributable signal in Tmax

Next Steps?• ECLIPSE Data published for SO2 , NOx, NH3,

nmVOC, BC, OC, PM2.5, PM10, CO, CH4

– Generate further ancillary files beyond just SO2 and publish for usage within the wider community?

– How do we productionise (i.e. make collection of actual measurements less of a heroic effort) the process for the fast turn around necessary for the global HAPPI activity with possibly more than annual updates?

• Where would compliance checking for global emissions fit within the 1.5Degree effort and would access to that collected data be available?