Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
GROWTH AND OPPORTUNITY IN FRANCHISING BUSINESS INDUSTRY
MARKET FOCUS: ASEAN ECONOMIC COMMUNITY (AEC)
By Jeffrey Bahar, Deputy CEO Spire Research and Consulting
June 2015
AGENDA
• Economy and Market Overview
• Growth and Opportunities of Franchise Sector in AEC
• Current and Forecast Trends of Sector
• Leading Players in the Industry
• Market Attractiveness for Malaysian Franchises and Regional Challenges
Economy and Market Overview
THE COUNTRIES: FACTS AND FIGURES 2013 (1)
Source: World Bank, Spire Analysis
+250MILLION
1.2%
868 BUSD
3,475
INDONESIA MALAYSIA THAILAND VIETNAM SINGAPORE
+30MILLION
1.6%
313 BUSD
10,538
+67MILLION
0.3%
387 BUSD
5,779
+90MILLION
1.0%
171 BUSD
1,910
+5.5MILLION
1.6%
298 BUSD
55,182
Population Population Growth GDP GDP per Capita
THE COUNTRIES: FACTS AND FIGURES 2013 (2)
Source: World Bank, Indonesian Bureau Statistic, Singapore Department of Statistics, Malaysian Ministry of Finance, General Statistics Office of Vietnam, Central Intelligence Agency, Spire Analysis
The Growth and Opportunities of Franchise Sector in
AEC
US$ 3.8 Trillion
Global FRANCHISE
Industry Value, 2014
ASIA
US$0.6Trillion
(2014)
USAUS$2.4
Trillion
(2014)
Franchise
establishments
Revenue
Output, $
+1.5%
+4.9%
2014
+1.6%
+5.4%
2015
± 30%
± 25%
2014
± 15%
± 20%
2015
Source: International Franchise Association (IFA) 2015 Outlook Report, Spire Analysis
GROWTH OUTLOOK
FRANCHISE INDUSTRY OUTLOOK & TRENDS: 2014 - 2015
FRANCHISE INDUSTRY OUTLOOK & TRENDS: 2014 - 2015
FOOD
Quick Serves
Source: International Franchise Association (IFA) 2015 Outlook Report, Spire Analysis
FRANCHISE
COMPOSITION Total establishments
PERSONAL
SERVICES Education, Health Care,
Laundry, Entertainment, etc.
RETAIL Products & Services Groceries (MGR), Clothing,
Footwear, Other Non-Food
Products
FOOD
Restaurants
#1
20%
#8
4.8%
#2
15%
#3
13%
#3
20%
#1
35%
#9
3%
#2
25%
Current and Future Trends in Food and Beverages
INDONESIA: CURRENT AND FORECAST TREND IN FOOD & BEVERAGE
High Level,
1%
Medium
Level, 37%
Low Level,
62%
Bali, 11.5%Central Java,
3.7%
East Java,
6.8%
Jakarta,
28%
North
Sulawesi, 2% North Sumatra,
13.2%
Others, 7.1%
Riau, 2.7%
South
Sulawesi, 5.1%
West Java,
11.8%
Yogyakarta,
8.1%
Other,
27.7%
RESTAURANT Based on GEOGRAPHICAL SPREADRESTAURANT Based on LEVEL
246,405241,337
171,028160,892
2013 2016
+2%+6%
FOOD Restaurant Outlet
FOOD Quick Serves Outlet
48.7 Bn US$
53.3 Bn US$+9.4%
Industry Revenue
VIETNAM: CURRENT AND FORECAST TREND IN FOOD & BEVERAGE
% of Urban Population
32%
How Often Vietnamese People go eating out?
40% 37%13% 6%
5%
Eating out
everyday
Eating out
weeklyEating out
monthly
Eating out
more than a
month
never
114,440111,706
457,762446,824
+2%+2%
2013 2016
FOOD Quick Serves Outlet
FOOD Restaurant Outlet
33.1 Bn US$ 37.9 Bn US$+14.1%
Industry Revenue
THAILAND: CURRENT AND FORECAST TREND IN FOOD & BEVERAGE
12%
24%
19%
15%
30%
everyday
1-2 times a week
2-3 times a week
3-6 times a week
seldomly eat outBangkok South East Central North West Northeast
45%
22%
16%
6% 5% 3% 3%
Thai consumer Eating out Behavior Restaurant Establishment
13,85613,413
124,712120,721
2013 2016
+3%+3%
FOOD Restaurant Outlet
FOOD Quick Serves Outlet
22.8 Bn US$26.1 Bn US$+14.4%
Industry Revenue
SINGAPORE: CURRENT AND FORECAST TREND IN FOOD & BEVERAGE
5,0074,815
22,39921,333
+4%
20162013
+5%FOOD Quick Serves Outlet
FOOD Restaurant Outlet
8.3 Bn US$8.7 Bn US$+4.6%
Industry Revenue
Street Stalls, hawker foods, Fast food outlets
81%
Restaurants/cafes67%
Friend’s House 6%
Other 2%
Where do you mostCommonly eatFood when you are not at home?
30%
3 times a week or more
less than a month22%
10%
a few times a month
once or twice a week
37%
How often do you dine out?
Current and Future Trends in Wholesale and Retail
INDONESIA: CURRENT AND FORECAST TREND IN WHOLESALE & RETAIL
Types and Number of Retail Stores in Indonesia (2014)
2.5 mio STORES
Traditional Retail Modern Retail (Minimarket) Modern Retail (Supermarket)
13,000 STORES 11,000 STORES
Number of Modern Retail
Stores(2004-2014)“In average, the
amount of modern
retail stores has
17.57% annual
growth in the last
10 years.”
+40%
468,809
20162013
335,024
Re
tail s
ale
s in
Mn
US$
VIETNAM: CURRENT AND FORECAST TREND IN WHOLESALE & RETAIL
97
85
76
67
20142013 2015 2016
Re
tail S
ale
s in
Bn
US$
+13%
125
700
8,600
Total Establishment
Traditional markets
Supermarket
Shopping Centres
29%
71%
local-owned
foreign-owned
THAILAND: CURRENT AND FORECAST TREND IN WHOLESALE & RETAIL
129,414119,811114,692118,471
2013 2014
Re
tail s
ale
s in
Mn
US$
+3%
2015 2016
-3%
40%
60%
Traditional Trade
Modern Trade
Retail Business
Modern Trade
Hypermarket
Supermarket
Convenience
Department Store
Category Killer
Specialty Store
Traditional Trade
The first retail business was not established in
Thailand until 1955
Until that time 100% of economic activity occurred
within ad hoc market/trading environment
dominated by small traders and highly inefficient.
This still persists in many area.
Modern Retail is the term officially given to the organized,
scalable and professionally managed retail industry.
By 1998, 35% of the value of goods sold in Thailand was
claimed by Modern Retail. This growth trajectory has
continued with Modern Retail expected to capture 65% by
2015
SINGAPORE: CURRENT AND FORECAST TREND IN WHOLESALE & RETAIL
49,769
40,760
+22%
Re
tail s
ale
s in
Mn
US$
20162013
In 2014
YearGrowth (%)
Prime Orchard Prime Suburban
2015 -3% to -5 % 0% - -3%
2016 0% 0%
Singapore’s economic growth isforecasted to be at a moderatepace, ranging between 2.0%and 4.0% in 2015, while the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has lowered its global economic growth projections to 3.5%. Hence,
slower retail sales (excluding motorvehicles) may continue to loom dueto weaker tourism and economicdevelopment.
Rental Growth Forecast
Leading Players for F&B, Retail, and Personal Services
FRANCHISE INDUSTRY PLAYERS: FOOD SERVICE
1. Top Food Indonesia
2. Kebab Turki Baba Rafi
Source: Franchise Information Manual Slideshare, Agriculture and Agrifood Canada, Spire Analysis
1. Secret Recipes Cakes & Recipe
2. Old Town White Coffee
1. Vie Thai Int. Thai Stock
2. Nam An Group
1. MK Restaurants
2. 5 Stars Grilled Chicken
1. Tung Lok Restaurants
2. Crystal Jade Culinary Concepts
FRANCHISE INDUSTRY PLAYERS: RETAIL
1. Indomaret
2. K-24
1. Clara International
2. Focus Point
1. Metro Cash & Carry
2. Parkson
1. Petland
2. Ziebart
1. Laundrymart
2. TTQ Massage
Market Attractiveness for Malaysian Franchise
MARKET ATTRACTIVENESS FOR MALAYSIAN FRANCHISE AND REGIONAL CHALLENGES
Population GDP
PPPUrbanization
Population
Growth
Slight CLM Market Overview
Population GDP
PPPUrbanization
Population
Growth
Myanmar
Cambodia
Laos
AutomotiveCommercial &
Residential
ServicesLodging
Business
Service
Quick
Service
RestaurantsReal Estate
Personal
Services
Retail
Products &
Services
Table/Full
Service
Restaurant
Retail
Food
MARKET ATTRACTIVENESS FOR MALAYSIAN FRANCHISE AND REGIONAL CHALLENGES
Tel: (62-21) 5794 5800Fax: (62-21 5794 5808
Wisma 46 Kota BNI, 25th Floor, Unit 07 & 09
Jalan Sudirman Kav. 1, Jakarta 10220
www.spireresearch.com
DID: (62-21) 5794 5801
M: (62-812) 1005 940
