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Workforce Labor Demands, Studies & Forecasts - PART 4

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1.  Managing  your  workforce  with  data  2.  Quan7ta7vely  characterizing  your  skilled  workforce  3.  Selected  case  studies    Appendix  A  –  Further  case  studies  Appendix  B  –  About  Alvarez  &  Marsal  Appendix  C  –  Speaker  bio    

Ongoing  data  capture  and  analysis  is  crucial  A  sound  approach  combines  demand  forecas7ng  with  the  talent  supply  chain  with  the  intent  of  allowing  companies  to  dynamically  align  talent  with  current  and  future  business  needs    

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Key  elements  of  a  sound  manpower  planning  approach  include:    

1.   Understanding  Demand  Pipeline  Characteris=cs:    Using  quan7ta7ve  and  qualita7ve  data  to    analyze  and  gain  insights  into  the  characteris7cs  of  the  demand  pipeline.  

2.   Quan=fying  Work/Project  Requirements:    Capturing,  qualifying  and  quan7fying  project  management  requirements  such  as  the  type  and  quan7ty  of  capabili7es  needed  and  the  7ming  needs  for  resources.  

3.   Understanding  Complex  Internal  Talent  Dynamics:    Using  available  data  to  build  a  picture  of  talent  dynamics  and  shine  a  light  on  areas  such  as  staff  availability,  under/over  u7liza7on  of  staff,  moves  between  projects  and  staff  turnover.  

4.   Quan=fying  the  Talent  Gap  and  Taking  Ac=on:    Assessing  both  sides  of  the  talent  supply  and  demand  equa7on  to  iden7fy  ac7ons  needed  to  close  gaps.  

Managing  the  workforce  takes  a  structured  plan  A  best  prac7ce  is  to  work  closely  with  project  management  leaders  to  iden7fy  what  companies  do  well  and  combine  that  with  industry  standard  protocols  to  develop  a  solu7on  that  meets  their  long  term  needs  

Startup  •  Develop  project  plan  and  gather  data  •  Develop  transforma7on  plan  

Evaluate/  Document  Current  State  •  Analyze  resource  porPolio,  pipeline  and  churn  for  

roles,  skills  and  capabili7es  •  Analyze  present  and  future  project  characteris7cs  •  Document  current  state  •  Evaluate  key  stakeholders  for  transforma7on  

readiness  

Define  Future  State  Requirements  and  Path  Forward  •  Define  model  to  simulate  and  predict  talent  

porPolio/  pipeline  demand  scenarios  •  Priori7ze  opportuni7es  •  Develop  future  requirements  

Deliverables  •  Project  plan  •  Transforma7on  plan  •  Key  inputs  to  planning  model    •  Conceptual  design  and  roadmap  

Build  Future  State  Process  •  Develop  manpower  planning  model  and  

standardized  processes  •  Validate  new  model  and  processes  with  key  

stakeholders  •  Develop  communica7on  and  training  plan  •  Prepare  for  pilot  

Conduct  Pilot  and  Incorporate  Required  Changes    •  Perform  pilot  and  document  key  findings  and  

lessons  learned  •  Adjust  model  and  process  to  incorporate  

findings  and  lessons  learned  •  Use  available  data  to  test  model  effec7veness  •  Develop  implementa7on  plan  

Deliverables  •  Finalized  planning  model  •  Documented  standardized  manpower  planning  

process  •  Implementa7on  plan:  training,  communica7ons,  

transforma7on,  etc…    

Train,  Deploy  and  Support  Solu=on  •  Deploy  training  for  model  and  process  •  Implement  standardized  approach  for  

manpower  planning  model  and  process    •  Implement  process  for  feedback  and  alignment  

with  future  needs  

Using  model  outputs,  develop  gap  analysis  •  Assess  talent  shortage  and  surplus  to  project  

pipeline  •  Iden7fy  strategies  required  to  address  gaps  •  Develop  manpower  plan  to  address  immediate  

and  longer  term  needs  

Deliverables  •  Manpower  demand  forecast  •  Finalized  list  of  key  demand  influencing  

variables  •  Manpower  plan    

Phase  One  Assess  and  Define  

Phase  Two  Build  and  Pilot  

Phase  Three  Deploy  and  Sustain  

Stakeholder  Engagement  and  Transforma=on  Management  

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Project Prioritization & Planning

Process

A  key  enabler  of  our  approach  –  Our  own  model  Our  model  integrates  availability  of  resources  with  an7cipated  demand  for  projects  and  addresses  numerous  other  factors   Pipeline  of  Projects  Available  Resources  

Project Type “A”

Project Type “B”

Project Type “C”

Project Type “D”

Project Type “E”

Resource Type “5”

Resource Type “4”

Resource Type “3”

Resource Type “2”

Resource Type “1”

§  Different Resources may be grouped by Type, based on skills, experience, etc.

§  Within each Type group the availability of resources will vary based on factors such as current project workload and timing, hiring plan, contractor availability, etc.

§  Specific Requirements for Types of Resources will likely vary by Type of project

§  Different projects may have varying priorities based on expected value, risks, and timing of related or dependent projects and objectives

Strategic Goals &

Priorities

Unscheduled Events

Prioritized List of Projects & Expected

Resourcing

Resource Utilization Forecast

with Gaps & Constraints Identified

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Workforce  modeling  is  an  enabler  of  strategic  planning  Tradi7onally,  companies  in  the  oil  &  gas  industry  take  ac7on  reac7vely,  moving  quickly  to  cut  costs.    With  a  workforce  planning  model,  you  can  act  on  insights  that  take  into  account  the  long-­‐term  view.  

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Model  

Past  project  data  Compiling  past  project  data  offers  the  chance  to  revisit  lapses  and  capture  best  prac=ces  

The  results  can  be  used  to  guide  your  organiza=on’s  strategy  

The  model  then  lays  bare  both  shortages  and  surpluses  by  labor  type  

Scenario  analysis   Strategic  hiring   Project  targe=ng  

Tools  produced  to  support  workforce  planning  Workforce  management  requires  robust  documenta7on  

Resource  Discipline  Defini/ons  &  Mapping   Project  Categoriza/on  &  Resource  Requirement  Modeling  

Project  Staffing  and  Organiza/on  Structures  Resource  U/liza/on  Forecasts  &  Planning  

Historical  Project  Performance  and  Demand  Forecas/ng  

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Background  •  Client  is  a  leading  Engineering,  Procurement  &  Construc7on  firm  that  focuses  on  complex  systems  for  floa7ng  oil  &  gas  produc7on  vessels  in  all  

water  depths  from  shallow  to  ultra  deep  water.    Individual  projects  can  take  years  to  design  and  build  and  can  be  valued  in  the  hundreds  of  millions  of  dollars.  

•  Client  needed  assistance  with  project  planning,  organiza7onal  design  and  manpower  planning      •  This  represented  the  largest  and  most  complex  project  they  had  ever  undertaken  and  would  require  over  130  resources  that  would  func7on  as  a  

team  for  approximately  three  years.  A&M  Role  

•  A&M’s  role  was  to  design  and  build  a  fully  capable  project  management  team,  organiza7on  structure  and  policies  &  procedures  that  would  enable  all  aspects  of  project  execu7on  and  organiza7on  setup.  

•  The  A&M  team  did  this  by:  –  Analyzing  thousands  of  pages  of  contract  requirements  to  determine  all  that  were  applicable  to  the  project  management  effort  –  Developing  an  organiza7on  structure,  roles  and  responsibili7es  and  procedures  for  the  overall  effort  including  project  management,  

various  engineering  disciplines,  project  controls,  procurement,  document  control  ,  IT  and  HR.  –  Procurement  organiza7on  design  as  well  as  policy/procedure  crea7on  were  from  the  ground  up  and  assumed  no  legacy  capability.  –  A  cri7cal  success  factor  in  this  effort  was  that  the  project  organiza7on  had  to  be  responsive  to  mul7ple  stakeholder  groups  including  

the  state  owned  natural  gas  company,  the  European  E&P  operator  and  the  consor7um  construc7on  partners.    Complica7ng  factors  for  the  project  organiza7on  included  the  need  to  deal  with  stakeholder  groups  with  poten7ally  conflic7ng  interest,  challenging  consor7um  group  members  and  several  different  languages  and  cultures.  

Outcome  •  A&M  successfully  compiled  project  management  requirements,  developed  a  unified  organiza7on  structure  that  equipped  the  client  to  ramp  up  

quickly  and  immediately  begin  execu7ng  the  one  hundred  day  plan  followed  by  subsequent  plans  for  building  out  various  sub-­‐teams  according  to  the  design  engineering  schedules.  

•  Key  learnings  from  this  exercise  served  as  a  basis  for  enhancing  client’s  exis7ng  project  management  structure  and  processes  for  other  projects.  

Capital  project  design  and  staffing  EPC  Project  Management  Design  and  Manpower  Planning  

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Background  •  Large    privately  owned  construc7on  company  that  offers  general  construc7on,  project  management  and  construc7on  management  services.    •  Demand  for  skilled  crah  labor  across  the  Company’s  various  business  units  is  expected  to  increase,  while  the  market  availability  of  these  trades  

con7nue  to  come  under  pressure.  In  2005,  the  company  processed  approximately  25,000-­‐30,000  crah  posi7ons  and  the  specific  crah  posi7ons  and  needs  will  vary  from  job  to  job  as  well  as  across  the  Business  units    

•  A&M  was  asked  to  review  the  exis7ng  crah  employment  processes  and  iden7fy  issues  associated  with  current  prac7ces  and  develop  recommenda7ons  to  improve  the  crah  employment  processes  in  light  of  the  7ghtening  labor  market  and  forecast  increase  in  demand  for  these  skills.    

A&M  Role  •  Working  with  Employee  Rela7ons    and  the  Business  Units  to  assess  the  standard  business  processes  /  policies,  organiza7on  structure  and  suppor7ng  

tools  •  Developing  alterna7ves  and  recommenda7ons  for  improvement  across  the  following  crah  employment  ac7vi7es:  Resource  Planning,  Requisi7on,  

Selec7on,  Hiring,  Reten7on,  Jobsite  Onboarding,  and  Termina7on  •  Conduc7ng  over  100  interviews  with  client  personnel/execu7ves,  distribu7ng  an  employee  survey  to  2,000  crah  laborers,  and  analyzing  detailed  

sta7s7cal  data      Outcome  

•  Developed  nearly  40  detailed  recommenda7ons  and  presented  them  to  the  Client’s  top  execu7ves    •  Completely  redesigned  resource  planning,  recrui7ng/sourcing  process    •  Implemented  a  global  real-­‐7me  labor  forecast  of  supply/demand  of  crah  laborers  •  Created  a  redeployment  process  designed  to  quickly  and  efficiently  move  crah  laborers  from  one  project  to  the  next  •  Substan7ally  reduced  turnover  of  high  performing  crah  laborers  

Resourcing  process  improvement  Large  engineering  and  construc7on  company  

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Appendix  A  –  Further  case  studies  

Project  demand  forecas7ng  Oilfield  services  technology,  manufacturing  and  administra7ve  facili7es  

Background  •  Client  is  a  global  oilfield  services  company,  and  provides  a  wide  range  of  services  to  oil  &  gas  developers  around  the  globe.  The  Client’s  real  

estate  group  manages  facili7es  around  the  world,  including  dozens  of  facili7es  dedicated  to  manufacturing  and  technology  development.  •  Iden7fying  and  execu7ng  new  projects  was  ohen  a  very  reac7ve  process,  with  key  stakeholders  only  iden7fying  the  need  for  addi7onal  capacity  

or  loca7ons  once  facility  constraints  were  painfully  evident.  •  Client  needed  to  develop  a  more  strategic  approach  to  assessing  current  capacity  against  projected  future  needs  of  the  business  in  order  to  

beker  plan  for  real  estate  projects,  par7cularly  in  Manufacturing  and  Technology,  as  well  as  administra7ve  transac7on  facili7es  for  func7ons  such  as  finance,  HR,  and  procurement.    

A&M  Role  •  A&M’s  role  was  to  develop  a  more  proac7ve  and  strategic  approach  for  engaging  selected  func7onal  groups  in  order  to  beker  understand  their  

current  and  future  needs,  and  to  become  a  more  strategic  partner  with  a  view  into  poten7al  needs  looking  out  3-­‐5  years  in  the  future.  •  The  A&M  team  did  this  by:  

–  Interviewing  key  stakeholders  to  understand  the  underlying  drivers  of  their  resource  and  personnel  requirements,  and  ul7mately  their  need  for  facili7es.  

–  Analyzing  current  and  historical  data  for  real  estate  facili7es,  including  quan7ta7ve  and  qualita7ve  assessments  of  u7liza7on  and  the  overall  performance  of  facili7es  in  mee7ng  the  needs  of  stakeholders.  

–  Developing  and  tes7ng  a  methodology  for  modeling  personnel  and  space  requirements  for  different  func7onal  groups  in  order  to  assess  the  poten7al  need  for  new  facili7es  over  the  next  3-­‐5  years.  

–  In  addi7on,  assisted  key  stakeholders  in  iden7fying  some  simplified  approaches  for  analyzing  and  forecas7ng  their  own  internal  resource  requirements  based  on  overall  strategic  forecasts  for  the  company.  

Outcome  •  Developing  and  pilo7ng  the  new  approach  to  engaging  key  stakeholders  helped  them  understand  their  own  role  in  assessing  the  longer  term  

strategic  needs  in  terms  of  new  facili7es.  •  Key  boklenecks  and  poten7al  capacity  constraints  were  iden7fied,  enabling  the  real  estate  group  to  proac7vely  engage  stakeholders  in  

assessing  the  need  for  poten7al  projects  well  in  advance  of  when  projects  would  need  to  be  executed.  •  Several  key  stakeholders  also  realized  that  they  could  use  these  tools  and  approaches  to  beker  forecast  their  own  internal  resource  needs.  

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Local  content  development  Large  upstream  oil  &  gas  operator  with  opera7ons  in  West  Africa  

Background  •  Client  is  an  oil  and  gas  company  building  opera7ons  in  West  Africa  

A&M  Role  •  A&M’s  role  was  to  develop  a  long-­‐term  organiza7onal  structure  and  human  resource  development  strategy  and  plan  to  address  growth  goals  

while  maintaining  compliance  with  local  needs  •  The  A&M  team  did  this  by:  

–  Developing  and  execu7ng  viable  long-­‐term  hiring/training  plan  and  organiza7onal  structure  to  meet  expanding  opera7onal  needs  in  Angola  

–  Integra7ng  compliance  and  “Angolaniza7on”  efforts  into  hiring  plan  and  long-­‐term  business  strategy    –  Building  near  and  long-­‐term  resourcing  model  to  address  short  term  and  longer  term  recrui7ng  and  training  needs  –  Assis7ng  client  with  recruitment  ini7a7ves  to  acquire  capable  resources  in  compe77ve  market  –  Developed  professional  career  plans  for  18  Job  Families  and  over  70  W  Africa  job  descrip7ons  –  Facilita7ng  crea7on  and  execu7on  of  training  and  development  plans  for  local  employees  to  promote  professional  growth  –  Developing  key  processes  for  the  transfer  of  knowledge  from  supervisors  to  trainees  –  Planned  /  coordinated    ELITE  Career  Fair  in  Angola  (designed  brochures,  graphics,  giveaways,  processed  resumes,  etc.)    –  Began  local  training  vendor  research  –  related  to  Contract  Program  requirements    –  Ensuring  compliance  of  client’s  HR  ac7vi7es  in  Luanda  with  all  regulatory  agencies  –  Preparing  documents,  presenta7ons,  and  templates  outlining  client’s  current  and  future  state  objec7ves  for  submission  to  regulatory  

bodies  Outcome  

•  A&M  successfully  completed  the  ac7vi7es  above  and  con7nues  to  manage  the  overall  resourcing  plans,  training  and  development  and  recrui7ng  strategies  in-­‐country  to-­‐date.  

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Appendix  B  –  About  Alvarez  &  Marsal    

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About  Alvarez  &  Marsal  For  more  than  25  years,  Alvarez  &  Marsal  has  set  the  standard  for  working  with  organiza7ons  to  tackle  complex  business  issues,  boost  opera7ng  performance  and  maximize  stakeholder  value.  

About A&M �  Founded  in  1983  by  co-­‐CEOs  Tony  Alvarez  II  and  Bryan  Marsal  �  2,300+  professionals  �  39  ci7es;  16  na7ons;  4  con7nents  �  300+  Managing  Directors    North  America  New  York  (Global  HQ)  Atlanta Birmingham Boston Charlotte Chicago Dallas Denver Detroit Houston Kansas City Los Angeles

Miami  Nashville  Philadelphia  Phoenix  San  Antonio  San  Francisco  Seakle  Toronto  Vancouver  Washington,  D.C.  

Europe and the Middle East London (European HQ) Amsterdam Dubai Madrid Milan Latin America São Paulo (Latin American HQ) Bogotá Asia Hong Kong (Asian HQ) Beijing Mumbai Seoul Shanghai

Mexico  City  

Moscow Munich Paris Warsaw

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Appendix  C  –  Speaker  bio    

•  David  Vaucher,  a  Director  with  Alvarez  &  Marsal  in  Houston,  specializes  in  upstream  opera7ons  and  opera7onal  costs.    Mr.  Vaucher’s  insights  on  costs  in  the  oil  &  gas  industry  and  opera7ons  to  support  shale  oil  &  gas  development  in  North  America  have  been  sought  out  and  published  by  global  news  organiza7ons  such  as  Thomson  Reuters,  The  Wall  Street  Journal  (La7n  America),  the  Financial  Times  and  The  Economist,  and  local  ones  such  as  the  Houston  Chronicle  and  the  San  Antonio  Express  News.  

•  Mr.  Vaucher  has  deep  technical  knowledge  of  oil  &  gas  workover  ac7vi7es,  and  has  published  and  presented  several  Society  of  Petroleum  Engineers  (SPE)  papers  on  this  topic.    He  has  years  of  hands-­‐on  field  experience,  and  is  highly  knowledgeable  about  comple7on  tools  generally,  and  “thru-­‐tubing”  interven7on  tools  specifically.      

•  Prior  to  joining  Alvarez  &  Marsal,  Mr.  Vaucher  worked  for  IHS  where  he  managed  the  Upstream  Opera7ng  Cost  Analysis  Service  and  was  instrumental  in  driving  the  product’s  growth,  whose  membership  more  than  doubled  during  his  tenure.    His  biggest  contribu7on  was  spearheading  the  year-­‐long  effort  to  forecast  opera7ng  cost  escala7ons  for  every  single  market  in  the  cost  service  for  over  a  dozen  countries,  under  all  3  of  IHS’  global  energy  scenarios,  over  a  forecast  period  that  spanned  more  than  two  decades.  

•  He  began  his  oil  &  gas  career  as  an  engineer  at  Schlumberger  based  in  Texas,  focusing  on  cemen7ng  and  well  construc7on  opera7ons,  and  then  worked  for  TAM  Interna7onal  (a  maker  of  specialty  comple7on  tools)  as  a  Technical  Advisor  suppor7ng  the  company’s  global  field  opera7ons.    

•  Mr.  Vaucher  is  a  past  editor-­‐in-­‐chief  of  “The  Way  Ahead”  magazine,  the  SPE’s  official  publica7on  for  young  professionals.    In  this  role  he  managed  a  team  of  45  editors  located  around  the  world  to  deliver  a  publica7on  in  print  and  online  to  roughly  26,000  readers.    He  currently  writes  the  weekly  column  “Building  Hydrocarbon  Bonds”  for  the  Houston  Chronicle,  and  is  the  author  of  the  book  “Drilling  Ahead:    Your  Guide  to  Star7ng,  Building,  and  Securing  a  Career  in  the  Oil  &  Gas  Industry.”      

•  Mr.  Vaucher  speaks  French  fluently,  and  holds  a  Bachelor  of  Science  degree  in  mechanical  engineering  from  Rice  University,  an  MBA  from  the  University  of  Texas  at  Aus7n,  and  a  Master  of  Engineering  in  petroleum  engineering  from  Texas  A&M  University  at  College  Sta7on.  

E-­‐mail:  [email protected]  

 

   

David  Vaucher,  MBA,  MEng  Director  in  Alvarez  &  Marsal’s  Energy  Prac7ce  

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