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NCAA Football Conference Webinar October 2014 Auction.com Research

US CRE Regional Deep Dive - ACC and Big East Conference Regions

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Slides from our 10/1 US Commercial Real Estate Regional Deep Dive Webinar. This webinar focused on the metros in the PAC 12 and Big 12 conference regions.

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Page 1: US CRE Regional Deep Dive - ACC and Big East Conference Regions

NCAA Football Conference Webinar

October 2014

Auction.com Research

Page 2: US CRE Regional Deep Dive - ACC and Big East Conference Regions

Atlantic Coast Conference

Page 3: US CRE Regional Deep Dive - ACC and Big East Conference Regions

ACC Region Economy and Demographics*

3

ACC Region Recovery Chugging Along ACC Region Employment Approaching Pre-

Recession Level ACC Region Job Count Growing on Par with

US

Regional Population Growth Outpacing Nation

Sources: Census Bureau, BLS, Maximus Advisors *ACC region defined as: DC,FL,GA,MD,NC,PA,SC,VA

Page 4: US CRE Regional Deep Dive - ACC and Big East Conference Regions

ACC: Underrated

4

Raleigh-Durham Warehouse   Job Count Reaching Devilishly High Levels

Valuations Will Remain High, Driven by Booming Biotech in Research Triangle

Sources: BLS, Reis, Maximus Advisors forecasts

Raleigh Warehouse Vacancies Will Reach New Lows

Page 5: US CRE Regional Deep Dive - ACC and Big East Conference Regions

ACC: Overrated

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Washington, DC Metro Area  

DC Region Employment Growth Leveling Off Recently

Regional Population Growth Has Slowed

Sources: Census Bureau, BLS, Maximus Advisors

Page 6: US CRE Regional Deep Dive - ACC and Big East Conference Regions

ACC: Overrated

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Washington, DC Metro Area   DC Office and Multifamily Valuations Will

Remain Range-Bound Through 2018

Suburban Maryland Valuations Moving Slower Than a Terrapin; Multifamily to

Decrease

Sources: Reis, Maximus Advisors forecasts

Northern Virginia CRE Valuations Leveling Off

Page 7: US CRE Regional Deep Dive - ACC and Big East Conference Regions

ACC: Bold Prediction

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Miami Hospitality  

Hotel Occupancies To Decline Amid Supply Additions Sweeping In Like a Hurricane

RevPAR Growth Will Slow Due to Increased Supply

Sources: STR, Maximus Advisors forecasts

Page 8: US CRE Regional Deep Dive - ACC and Big East Conference Regions

ACC: Cellar Dweller

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Pittsburgh Pittsburgh Employment Has Been Range-

Bound for Years… …While Population Growth is Non-Existent

Sources: BLS, Census Bureau, Reis, Maximus Advisors forecasts

Valuations Look to Remain Flat Through 2018

Page 9: US CRE Regional Deep Dive - ACC and Big East Conference Regions

Big East Conference

Page 10: US CRE Regional Deep Dive - ACC and Big East Conference Regions

Big East Region Economy and Demographics*

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Big East Region Underperforming US

Big East Job Count Has Surpassed Prior Peak…

…But Job Growth Lagging US Pace

Regional Population Growing Only Half US Pace

Sources: Census Bureau, BLS, Maximus Advisors *Big East region defined as: CT,MA,NY,NJ,RI

Page 11: US CRE Regional Deep Dive - ACC and Big East Conference Regions

Big East: Underrated

11

New York City Office New York City Office Employment Storming

Ahead

Sources: BLS, Reis, Maximus Advisors forecasts

Vacancies Will Approach 8% by 2018

Vacancies Have Descended Despite Massive New Supply

Page 12: US CRE Regional Deep Dive - ACC and Big East Conference Regions

Big East: Overrated

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Boston Apartment Boston May Be Overbuilding… Boston Apartment Vacancies Flying Like an

Eagle Due to Massive New Supply Additions

Sources: BLS, Reis, Maximus Advisors forecasts

Apartment Vacancies Already on the Rise, Will Plateau Near 6% as Supply Overtakes Demand

Page 13: US CRE Regional Deep Dive - ACC and Big East Conference Regions

Big East: Bold Prediction

13

New York City Hospitality RevPAR Growth Stunted by Massive Supply

Pipeline NYC Hotel Occupancies to Fall Off in

Coming Years

Sources: STR, Maximus Advisors

NYC Hotel Valuations Will Remain Quiet Through 2017

Page 14: US CRE Regional Deep Dive - ACC and Big East Conference Regions

Big East: Cellar Dweller

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New Jersey

Argh Matey! New Jersey Population Growth Slowing

New Jersey Payrolls Still Well Below Pre-Recession Peak

Sources: BLS, Census Bureau, Maximus Advisors

Page 15: US CRE Regional Deep Dive - ACC and Big East Conference Regions

Big East: Cellar Dweller

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New Jersey

Central NJ Valuations Losing the Hunt for Buried Treasure

Northern NJ Valuations Heading Nowhere; Multifamily Walking the Plank

Sources: Reis, Maximus Advisors forecasts

Page 16: US CRE Regional Deep Dive - ACC and Big East Conference Regions

Thank you for joining us for our NCAA Webinar series!

Page 17: US CRE Regional Deep Dive - ACC and Big East Conference Regions

Peter  Muoio,  Ph.D.  646-­‐352-­‐9510  pmuoio@auc<on.com    

For  our  latest  insights  follow  us  at:  www.auc4on.com/blog  Twi9er:  @maximusiQ  Facebook:    MaximusiQ  Linkedin:  Maximus  Advisors    www.auc4on.com  

For  general  inquiries  please  email:  [email protected]