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Toronto Real Estate Monthly Charts
Creative Commons license
Scott Ingram
CPA, CA, MBA
Realtor
Chalmers House
by Blok 70
Toronto Real Estate
Monthly Market Charts
@areacode416 century21.ca/scott.ingram
Introduction
You read that sales last month were up 13% over last year. What does that really mean??
Was last year a down year, an average year, or a record year? Was that due to houses or
condos? The charts that follow will add context and perspective to Toronto’s monthly real estate statistics (Toronto meaning just the 416 and not the whole GTA).
I separate Toronto’s two distinct market segments: Houses and Condos, because you probably care more about one than the other and lumping them together hides a lot of
information. I aim to give you deeper insight into market movements and trends and better
historical context.
Source for all numbers: Toronto Real Estate Board (TREB) “Historic Housing Stats”
What’s happening in
Toronto Real Estate?
Monthly Market Charts
@areacode416 century21.ca/scott.ingram
Source for all numbers: Toronto Real Estate Board (TREB) “Historic Housing Stats”
November 2016 highlights
- House sales usually drop off in November and December, but this year it was more of a leveling off, as November sales were up 11% vs. 2015 – despite new mortgage measures.
YTD sales are up a little over last year ( 1.7% YTD) but listings have been scarce – sitting
between 60% and 70% of last year’s levels for the last 8 months. That has led to quick sales
(low DOM) and crazy-low inventory levels (MOI) - House prices $283K over last Nov (30.1%) and $33K over last month
- Condo sales are way up over last year ( 18% YTD) and listings are way down (October
was only 50% of last year’s level), leading to 7 days less on market and record lows in
inventory (October’s MOI was 60% lower than last year’s)
- Condo prices $57K over last Nov(13.4%) and $9K over last month
416 Market Breakdown
@areacode416
1 year ago: Condos 54% / Houses 45%
5 years ago: Condos 52% / Houses 47%
10 years ago: Condos 45% / Houses 53%
As the supply of houses is essentially fixed, and more
condos are completed, transaction share should keep
shifting towards condos. Also, condos are often a “starter
home” and not held onto as long on average as houses.
While houses are only 42% of sales transaction volume, they
account for 64% of dollar volume in the last 12 months.
Houses 42%
Condos 57%
Share of Transactions - last 12 months
Detached 72%
Semi 20%
Row 7%
Share of House Transactions - last 12 months
Apartment 88%
Townhouse 12%
Share of Condo Transactions - last 12 months
416 Average Sold Price (Dollar volume ÷ number of transactions in the month)
@areacode416 century21.ca/scott.ingram
Nov vs. ‘15: $283K (30.1%)
Nov vs. ‘11: $516K (73%)
5 year avg. annual growth: 11.6%
Clear year-over-year growth is evident each year in every
month, and this year it’s higher than ever. The average
price has grown $26K a month in 2016. #FOMO
Detached $1,358K / Semi $906K / Row $883K
Nov vs. ‘15: $57K (13.4%)
Nov vs. ‘11: $121K (34%)
5 year avg. annual growth: 6.0%
Though the top of the condo chart is the bottom of the
house chart, there is still impressive YoY growth (13% at
October) and average price has grown $7K a month.
Condo Apt $471K / Condo Townhouse $571K
958
1,110 1,074
1,156 1,170 1,157
1,104 1,096
1,182 1,187 1,220
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
1,100
1,200
1,300
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
$000s Houses (Det & Semi & Row)
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
421
444
428
452 456 459
438
459 462
474 483
300
350
400
450
500
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
$000s Condos (Apt & Town)
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
The $1,000 Ticker (Based on YTD increase of the average price)
1 day 6 hours 19 minutes*
Time it has taken this year for the price of an average 416 house or condo to go up $1,000
Houses
30:19
condos
110:41
4 days 14 hours 41 minutes
*Houses jumped $155K in Jan/Feb 2016. The last 9 months are up $110K ($10K a month) for a $1,000 Ticker Time of 59:53
416 Residential Sales (number of sold transactions in the month)
@areacode416 century21.ca/scott.ingram
Nov vs. ‘15: 11.1%
YTD vs. ‘15: 1.7% (vs. Prior 5 years: 4.2%)
With a more finite supply, House transactions don’t vary
much from year to year (the last 5 years have stayed within
4% of the average 5 year volume). Sales for the year should
end up just over 17K — the highest since 2009 but far off
the record 20.4K in 2007
Nov vs. ‘15: 24.6%
YTD vs. ‘15: 18.1% (vs. Prior 5 years: 32.4%)
Condo supply keeps growing as new ones are built, and
some people denied by high house prices are turning to
condos. As such, each month in 2016 has seen record
transactions. By October condo sales had already
exceeded the total sales for all of 2015.
672
1162
1513
1889
2102 2066
1320 1162
1511 1534 1406
860
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Houses (Det & Semi & Row)
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
1000
1609
2066
2297
2468 2472
2134 2217
2040 2145
1947
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
416 Sales - Condos (Apt & Town)
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
416 Active Listings
(snapshot of properties available for sale at end of each month)
@areacode416 century21.ca/scott.ingram
Nov vs. ‘15: 30%
YTD vs. ‘15: 30% (vs. Prior 5 years: 39%)
Here’s the big issue with the market: the supply of listings.
The last 8 months have only been at 60-70% of last year –
and that was a low year already. More buyers are
competing for fewer listings.
Nov vs. ‘15: 50%
YTD vs. ‘15: 29% (vs. Prior 5 years: 26%)
Condo supply as a % of last year has grown worse every
month this year, and by November, listings were only 50%
of the 2015 level. The 2,203 active listings at month end
were the lowest month since Feb 2002 (177 months).
1168 1300 1392 1452 1633
1456 1283
1119
1629 1612 1307
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Houses (Det & Semi & Row)
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
3491 3718
4028 4177 4249
4041
3608
3134 3111 2791
2203
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Condos (Apt & Town)
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
416 Months Of Inventory (active listings at month end ÷ sales for month)
@areacode416 century21.ca/scott.ingram
Nov vs. ‘15: 0.5 months (37%)
Nov vs. Prior 5 years: 0.8 months (46%)
Supply and demand influences together on one chart. A
“balanced market” is 5-7 months of inventory. Toronto has
been in a “seller’s market” for at least 20 years and the
trend continued to get more extreme in 2016 with MOI at
record lows all year long at around the 1 month mark.
Nov vs. ‘15: 1.7 months (60%)
Nov vs. Prior 5 years: 2.1 months (65%)
Condo MOI has been below 2.0 months for 9 consecutive
months, the first time it has fallen below that barrier. The 1.1
months in November is a new record low and this is the
closest Condo and House MOI has been since September
2009.
1.7
1.1 0.9
0.8 0.8 0.7 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1 0.9
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Houses (Det & Semi & Row)
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
3.5
2.3
1.9 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.7 1.4 1.5
1.3 1.1
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Condos (Apt & Town)
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
416 Average Days On Market (Days from listed to sold, for those properties sold during the month)
@areacode416 century21.ca/scott.ingram
Nov vs. ‘15: 7.0 days (33%)
Nov vs. Prior 5 years: 7.0 days (33%)
With an extreme seller’s market and a low inventory of
listings, houses that are on the market are being snapped
up quickly. The first month with a 15 DOM or lower was April
2010. 2016 has seen a record 10 months with 15 DOM or
lower (the previous record was 5 last year).
Nov vs. ‘15: 10.6 days (34%)
Nov vs. Prior 5 years: 12.3 days (37%)
The same inventory crunch on the condo side is driving
sales quicker there too. Ten years ago the average condo
was 39 DOM, and 5 years ago it was 32. This November an
average condo sold in 2/3 the time it took last year, and 21
DOM is a new record low.
24
15 13
11 12 10
13 15
12 12 14
0
10
20
30
40
50
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Houses (Det & Semi & Row)
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
39
31
24 23 22 22 23
24 23
21 21
0
10
20
30
40
50
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Condos (Apt & Town)
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
416 Annual Average Price Increases (December average price compared to December of prior year)
@areacode416 century21.ca/scott.ingram
20 year house performance: 18 years 2 years. Avg $47K. 20 year CAGR (as at Oct) is 7.0%.
20 year condo performance: 18 years 2 years.. Avg $17K. 20 year CAGR (as at Oct) is 4.8%.
15 19 46
(11)
27 36
2
49
10 12
130
(51)
57 40
22 33
117
54
105
265
10 2 19 12 20 12 3
19 7 11 42
(34)
60
20 4
(6)
29 17 22
73
(100)
(50)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1997 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 2016 YTD
$000s $ Increases
Houses Condos
6%
7%
17%
(3%)
9%
11%
1%
13%
2% 3%
29%
(9%)
11% 7%
3% 5%
17%
7%
12%
28%
7%
2%
12%
7%
11%
6% 2% 9% 3% 4%
17%
(12%)
23%
6% 1%
(2%)
9%
4% 6%
18%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
1997 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 2016 YTD
% Increases
Houses Condos
Your home is the single largest investment you'll make — trust it with an accountant.
Having built up 20 years of trust as an accountant in Toronto's art and music communities,
Scott combines his analytical skills and business savvy with his hometown knowledge and
passion to help artists and professionals alike find their next home. Scott works with the
venerable CENTURY 21 brand at the Regal Realty Inc. brokerage on Queen St. West.
@areacode416 century21.ca/scott.ingram
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