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Presented by Scott Sambucci (Altos Research) at the IE Group's Predictive Analytics Summit, "Predicting the Housing Market with Buyer & Seller Psychology" reviews real-time and leading housing market indicators to predict future home prices.
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Scott Sambucci, Altos ResearchNovember 2010 | San Francisco, CA
PREDICTIVE ANALYTICS SUMMIT
WHO, WHAT, WHERE, WHEN, WHY & HOW
• Altos Research
• Real-time housing market analytics
• 180+ metros, 20,000 zip codes
• What is happening & what will happen, not what happened
• Wisdom of crowds
• The Active Market to forecast future market activity
APPLICATIONS OF REAL-TIME ANALYTICS
• Current Market Conditions
• Future Housing Prices
• Consumer Sentiment
• Mortgage Default Rates
• Financial Market
MISLEADING NATURE OF TRANSACTION PRICES
MIAMI CONDOS: MARKET IMPROVED IN 2009?
Did values really moved higher?
The actives knew the market was weak
PREDICTING FUTURE PRICES
7/27/2
007
8/28/2
007
9/29/2
007
10/31
/2007
12/2/
2007
1/3/20
08
2/4/20
08
3/7/20
08
4/8/20
08
5/10/2
008
6/11/2
008
7/13/2
008
8/14/2
008
9/15/2
008
10/17
/2008
11/18
/2008
12/20
/2008
1/21/2
009
2/22/2
009
3/26/2
009
4/27/2
009
5/29/2
009
6/30/2
009
8/1/20
09
9/2/20
09
10/4/
2009
11/5/
2009
12/7/
2009
1/8/20
10
2/9/20
10
3/13/2
010
4/14/2
010
5/16/2
010
6/17/2
010
7/19/2
010
8/20/2
010
9/21/2
010
125.00
135.00
145.00
155.00
165.00
175.00
185.00
195.00
205.00
$325,000
$345,000
$365,000
$385,000
$405,000
$425,000
$445,000
SPCS20R Active Prices
QE2 & THE HOUSING MARKET: SUPPLY & DEMAND PROBLEM
CONSUMER SENTIMENT & HOUSING
MORTGAGES 60 DAYS DELINQUENT FOR THE FIRST TIME
FICO & LTVS – BECOMING IRRELEVANT
DELINQUENCIES PEAK AT MARKET TROUGH
New delinquencies perfectly correlated to
market conditions
MORTGAGE DEFAULT RATES & MARKET CONDITIONS
New delinquencies perfectly correlated to
market conditions
THE HOUSING MARKET & THE S&P 500
1-Jan
-08
1-Feb
-08
1-Mar-
08
1-Apr-0
8
1-May
-08
1-Jun-08
1-Jul-0
8
1-Aug-08
1-Sep
-08
1-Oct-
08
1-Nov-0
8
1-Dec
-08
1-Jan
-09
1-Feb
-09
1-Mar-
09
1-Apr-0
9
1-May
-09
1-Jun-09
1-Jul-0
9
1-Aug-09
1-Sep
-09
1-Oct-
09
1-Nov-0
9
1-Dec
-09
1-Jan
-10
1-Feb
-10
1-Mar-
10
1-Apr-1
0
1-May
-10
1-Jun-10
1-Jul-1
0
1-Aug-10
1-Sep
-10
1-Oct-
10
1-Nov-1
0500.00
600.00
700.00
800.00
900.00
1,000.00
1,100.00
1,200.00
1,300.00
1,400.00
1,500.00
$325,000
$335,000
$345,000
$355,000
$365,000
$375,000
$385,000
$395,000
$405,000
$415,000
S&P 500 Active Prices
CONTACT
Scott Sambucci, VP Data Analytics
Altos Research
www.altosresearch.com
(415) 931-7942
http://blog.altosresearch.com
@scottsambucci
PROPERTY TAXES
http://macroblog.typepad.com/macroblog/2010/10/real-estate-and-municipal-revenue.html