LONDON PROPERTY MARKET BULLETIN

WINTER 2015

LONDON PROPERTY MARKET:IS HISTORY ABOUT TO REPEAT ITSELF?

3

WHAT HAPPENED LAST TIME?London recovered much more quickly than the rest of the UK and is now 43% above previous peak (vs 3% for the rest of the country)

Jan-

95Ja

n-96

Jan-

97Ja

n-98

Jan-

99Ja

n-00

Jan-

01Ja

n-02

Jan-

03Ja

n-04

Jan-

05Ja

n-06

Jan-

07Ja

n-08

Jan-

09Ja

n-10

Jan-

11Ja

n-12

Jan-

13Ja

n-14

Jan-

15

0

100

200

300

400

500

600UK VS LONDON PROPERTY PRICE GROWTH SINCE 1995

UKLondon

– London property prices took less than 5 years to recover after 2007 property crisis

– Now stand at 43% above previous peak

– UK property prices took 8 years to recover after 2007 property crisis

– UK property prices now 3% above pre-crisis peak

Index

Source: Land Registry Website

43%

3%

4

WHAT HAPPENED LAST TIME?Prices started to fall in London when volume halved; And they started to rise again when volume halved again

Jan-

07Fe

b-07

Mar-0

7Ap

r-07

May-

07Ju

n-07

Jul-0

7Au

g-07

Sep-

07Oc

t-07

Nov-

07De

c-07

Jan-

08Fe

b-08

Mar-0

8Ap

r-08

May-

08Ju

n-08

Jul-0

8Au

g-08

Sep-

08Oc

t-08

Nov-

08De

c-08

Jan-

09Fe

b-09

Mar-0

9Ap

r-09

May-

09Ju

n-09

Jul-0

9Au

g-09

Sep-

09Oc

t-09

Nov-

09De

c-09

200,000

225,000

250,000

275,000

300,000

325,000

350,000

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000LONDON: PRICE VS VOLUME DURING LAST CRISIS

PriceVolume

Volume drop happened

about 6 months

before price crash

Volume recovered about 3 months

before price

Price: £Volume

Prices started to decrease

when volume halved

Source: Land Registry Website

5

WHAT’S GOING ON NOW IN LONDON?Volume has dropped in Greater London, but not by enough to hinder price growth

Jan-

14Fe

b-14

Mar-1

4Ap

r-14

May-

14Ju

n-14

Jul-1

4Au

g-14

Sep-

14Oc

t-14

Nov-

14De

c-14

Jan-

15Fe

b-15

Mar-1

5Ap

r-15

May-

15Ju

n-15

Jul-1

5350,000

375,000

400,000

425,000

450,000

475,000

500,000

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000LONDON: PRICE VS VOLUME IN 2015

PriceVolume

Price: £ Volume

Volume dropped by 25% last year, but recovered slightly after election

Prices have risen steadily and at the London level show no sign of slowing

Nothing to worry about?

Source: Land Registry Website

6

WHAT’S GOING ON NOW IN CENTRAL LONDON?Central London has shown a dramatic volume decline;Is this just a Central London issue or is there a risk of contagion?

Jan-

14Fe

b-14

Mar-1

4Ap

r-14

May-

14Ju

n-14

Jul-1

4Au

g-14

Sep-

14Oc

t-14

Nov-

14De

c-14

Jan-

15Fe

b-15

Mar-1

5Ap

r-15

May-

15Ju

n-15

Jul-1

5Au

g-15

Sep-

15

800,000

825,000

850,000

875,000

900,000

925,000

950,000

975,000

1,000,000

1,025,000

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500CENTRAL LONDON: PRICE VS VOLUME: 2015

PriceVolume

Volume in Central London has halved

Prices likely to follow

Price: £ Volume

Will prices follow volume?

Source: Land Registry Website (Westminster)

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8

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