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Page 1
E R S T E G R O U PB A N K A G
Rainer Münz
Paris, February 25, 2015
Global Migration
Page 2
E R S T E G R O U PB A N K A G
Yesterday’s and today’s migration
1990 2000 2010 2013
The number of international migrants increases
United Nations, Population Division/DESA
Absolute numbers and proportion of migrants in total population
Where do they come from? Where do they go to?International migrants by origin and destination, 1990, 2010, millions
Source: United Nations, Population Division
Magnet societies: EU, Asia, US
20131990
International migrant stock by macro region, 1990 – 2013, in mn
Source: Trends in International Migrant Stock: The 2013 Revision
Page 6
E R S T E G R O U PB A N K A G
Top 10 emigration countriesAbsolute number of emigrants, in millions, 2010
Source: World Bank, UNPD 2011
11.4
11.1
8.3
6.6
5.4
4.7
4.7
4.3
4.3
11.9
0 4 8 12
Mexico
India
Russian Federation
China
Ukraine
Bangladesh
Pakistan
United Kingdom
Philippines
Turkey
Page 7
E R S T E G R O U PB A N K A G
Top 10 immigration countriesNumber of foreign-born individuals, in millions, 2010
42.8
12.3
10.8
7.3
7.2
7.0
6.9
6.7
5.5
5.4
0 15 30 45
United States
Russian Federation
Germany
Saudi Arabia
Canada
United Kingdom
Spain
France
Australia
India
Source: World Bank, UNPD 2011
Today most migrants come from middle- and low-income countriesNet migration rates 2005-2010 (annual average per
1000)
Above income levels of US-$ 9,000 per capita net-emigration recedes Annual average net migration per 1000 inhabitants (2005-10)
Data Source: UN; Erste Research
Page 10
E R S T E G R O U PB A N K A G
Millions of migrants are neither documented and
nor counted in our statitstical data bases
Page 11
E R S T E G R O U PB A N K A G
The example of Europe
Page 12
E R S T E G R O U PB A N K A G
Source: Eurostat, UN DESA
Net migration in Europe 2001-2009Net migration, yearly average, per 1000 inhabitants
.
-2% to 0% 0 to +2+2% to +5%
below -5%-5% to -2%
above +5%
Page 13
E R S T E G R O U PB A N K A G
Source: Eurostat and own calculations 2013
Net migration in Europe 2010-2012Net migration, yearly average, per 1000 inhabitants
.
-2% to 0% 0 to +2+2% to +5%
below -5%-5% to -2%
above +5%
Direction changed recently
Page 14
E R S T E G R O U PB A N K A G
There are millions of people in need of
protection living in Europe’s neighborhood.Many more than the EU member states will ever
be able and willing to accommodate
Page 15
E R S T E G R O U PB A N K A G
Can we project today’s migration pattern into
the future?
1990 2000 2010 2013
The number of international migrants is projected to increase further
2030
Absolute numbers and share of migrants in total population
United Nations, Population Division/DESA
1990 2000 2010 2013
United Nations, Population Division/DESA
2050
The number of international migrants is projected to increase further
Absolute numbers and share of migrants in total population
Net migratory flows to more developed countries1950-2010 (actual), 2010-2100 (different projections), in mn
All more developed countries
USA
xx xx
Source: Joel E. Cohen
UNPDestimate
WPP2010projection
Gravity model
Linear model
Even for Europe we do not have good dataEuropean countries with largest net out and in-migration 2005-2009, by source
Rank Country EUROSTAT USCB UNPD WiC1 Romania -904,615 -32,058 -46,342 -100,0002 Lithuania -145,981 -12,801 -166,978 -36,0003 Belarus -145,678 32,671 52,266 -51,0004 Poland -85,558 -88,979 -60,268 55,0005 Latvia -84,549 -25,675 -89,138 -10,0006 Bulgaria -53,329 -135,993 -80,423 -50,0007 Armenia -31,776 -92,399 -139,099 -75,0008 Albania -28,818 -145,067 -170,893 -48,0009 Estonia -17,556 -21,187 -13,612 0
10 Republic of Moldova
-14,854 -196,149 -183,069 -172,000
10 Czech Republic 232,025 255,036 297,005 240,0009 Sweden 249,653 250,997 263,075 265,0008 Belgium 288,023 63,487 342,395 200,0007 Switzerland 301,164 224,792 338,020 182,0006 Turkey 361,867 224,053 -79,266 -49,0005 France 490,483 415,630 593,334 500,0004 Russian
Federation1,055,101 1,479,888 2,471,475 1,135,000
3 Italy 1,364,695 1,747,460 1,993,177 1,999,0002 United
Kingdom1,369,091 961,339 928,982 1,021,000
1 Spain 2,645,920 2,496,953 2,416,659 2,250,000Source: T. Buettner
Migration flows: Uncertain past, uncertain future – Poland
Source: T. Buettner
Migration flows: Uncertain past, uncertain future – Niger
Source: T. Buettner
Migration flows: Uncertain past, uncertain future – Philippines
Source: T. Buettner
Why does it matter?Contribution of international migration to population growth / decline by 2050 as proportion of the total population in 2010
Per cent
Polynesia -45Micronesia -21Caribbean -14Central America -10Central Asia -8Northern Africa -6Western Africa -4Melanesia -4South-Central Asia -3Southern Asia -3Eastern Africa -2Middle Africa -2South-Eastern Asia -2South America -2Eastern Asia -1Southern Africa 1Eastern Europe 2Western Asia 3Southern Europe 8Western Europe 10Northern Europe 16Northern America 20Australia/New Zealand 36
Source: Francois Pelletier