Replacement Migration:

Revisiting a debated concept

15 years later

Forum on Migration, Citizenship and Demography

Florence - Italy, 4-5 February, 2016

Pablo LattesMigration Section

Population Division - DESAUnited Nations

Background information

International migrants in Europe by major area of origin

12.1

25.7

52.3

6.2

1.3 0.4 2.0 Africa

Asia

Europe

Latin America and

the CaribbeanNorthern America

Oceania

Others

Age distribution of foreign born in Europe 1990 & 2015

-5000 -4000 -3000 -2000 -1000 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75+

M-90 F-90 M-15 F-15

Percentage migrants over total pop by age in Europe 1990-15

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

160-4

5-9

10-1

4

15-1

9

20-2

4

25-2

9

30-3

4

35-3

9

40-4

4

45-4

9

50-5

4

55-5

9

60-6

4

65-6

9

70-7

4

75+

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Migrants stocks and flows

� EU28

505 m total population

54 m foreign born (10.7%)

20 m from other EU28

34 m from outside EU28 (6.8%)

3.5 m estimate 5yr net migration (0.7%)

Migrant stocks and flows

� USA + CANADA (North America)

357 m total population

54 m foreign born (15.3%)

6 m estimate 5yr net migration (1.7%)

� Australia + New Zealand

28.5 m total population

7.8 m foreign born (27.4%)

0.8 m estimate 5yr net migration (2.8%)

Migrant stocks and flows

� Largest 5 countries from EU28

315.7 m total population

40.0 m foreign born (12.7%)

2.7 m estimate 5yr net migration (0.9%)

� The other 23 countries from EU28

189.4 m total population

14.1 m foreign born (7.4%)

0.7 m estimate 5yr net migration (0.4%)

Summary stocks and flows (millions)

EU28 North AmericaAustralia +

New Zealand

Total population 2015 505 357 29

Foreign Bornoutside EU28

54 (10.7%)34 (not EU) (6.8%)

54 (15.3%) 8 (27.4%)

Net Migration per 5yr period 3.5m (0.7%) 6.0m (1.7%) 0.8m (2.8%)

2.5 times EU28 4.0 times EU28

Approaches to population growth -migration or fertility?

Migration a significant part of total population

LocationEstimate

2015

Zero migration

2050

WPP medium

2050% difference

EU28 505,150 465,321 499,424 7.3

France 64,395 67,272 71,137 5.7

Germany 80,689 67,746 74,513 10.0

United Kingdom 64,716 67,076 75,361 12.4

Australia 23,969 26,093 33,496 28.4

Canada 35,940 34,971 44,136 26.2

USA 321,774 340,887 388,865 14.1

Comparison of births to net migrants (thousands)

Location

Births (zero net

migration)

2015-2050

Net migration

2015-2050

+ Births from migs

Net migration /

births alone

France 26,264 3,971 15.1

Germany 20,929 6,960 33.3

United Kingdom 25,798 8,496 32.9

Australia 9,653 7,484 77.5

Canada 11,579 9,400 81.2

USA 136,409 49,417 36.2

* Births for EU-28 include births from migrants

Migration and fertility

Births (zero

migration)

2015-50

Births (with

migration)

2015-50

Additional births

in period

(per cent)

France 26,264 27,435 4.5

Germany 20,929 22,639 8.2

United Kingdom 25,798 28,293 9.7

Australia 9,653 11,773 22.0

Canada 11,579 13,879 19.9

USA 136,409 150,826 10.6

Scenarios

Base model WPP zero net migration

Migration variants

� WPP medium variant (3.5 m per 5 yr)

� North American rate (8.6m per 5 yr)

� Australia + NZ rate (14m per 5 yr)

Comparison

� Zero net +.25 TFR

� Zero net +.50 TFR

Medium

variant + .25 + .50

2015-2020 1.62 1.87 1.87

2020-2025 1.65 1.90 2.05

2025-2030 1.68 1.93 2.18

2030-2035 1.71 1.96 2.21

2035-2040 1.73 1.98 2.23

2040-2045 1.75 2.00 2.25

2045-2050 1.77 2.02 2.27

Total population in 2050 by scenario (millions)

20

15

Zero

net

mig

+ .

25

TFR

+ .

50

TFR

WP

P M

ed

ium

Var

No

rth

Am

eric

a

Au

str

alia+

NZ

430

440

450

460

470

480

490

500

510

520

Total Pop

Age distribution by scenario2050

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

2015

Zero

+.25 TFR

+.50 TFR

WPP (3.5m)

NA (8.6m)

Aus+NZ (14m)

Support ratio in 2050 (20-69 / rest)

20

15

Zero

net

mig

+ .

25

TFR

+ .

50

TFR

WP

P M

ed

ium

Var

No

rth

Am

eric

a

Au

str

alia+

NZ

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

Total Pop

Scenarios2015 WPP

Zero Net Mig

Zero Net + .25 TFR

Zero Net + .50 TFR

WPP medium (3.5 m)

N. Am. Mig(8,6m)

Aust & NZ Mig(14m)

Total pop (millions)

505 465 492 511 499 544 593

20-69 / rest 1.92 1.29 1.24 1.19 1.34 1.39 1.45

Births 2015-50 (thousands)

159 186 205 169 180 193

Net migration during 2015-50

NA NA 25 60 98

Births due to migration

10 21 24

Other important factors what to measure?

Previous revision To consider

Working / older Working / rest

Age fixed in time (15-64) Age adapted to other variables (20-69)

Migrants not followed in time Keep foreign and nativepopulations separate for analysis(look at migrant stock)

Same TFR for migrants as non-migrants

Allow for differences in TFR (would increase births)

Origin of migrants ignored (intra-migration)

Separate intra-migration from outer-migration

Return migrants

Concluding remarks

� Migration can play a major role in the size and age distribution of future population

� But Europe is experiencing much lower levels of (external) migration compared to other countries or regions

� Increases in TFR take many years to have an effect on the workforce.

� Net migration hides many of the characteristics of migrants by mixing them with total population.

� Shorter term migration is becoming more significant and has the effect of slowing down the ageing further.