Ouzounov et al. Presentation at the EGU General Assembly Vienna 2015 Prospective validation of pre-earthquake atmospheric signals and their potential for short–term earthquake forecasting

Prospective validation of pre‐earthquake atmospheric signals and their potential for

short–term earthquake forecasting

D.Ouzounov1,5, S.Pulinets2,5, K.Hattori3,5, L.Lee4, J.Y.Liu4,5, M.C.Kafatos1

1 Chapman University, One University Drive, Orange, CA, USA2Space Research Institute, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia

3Department of Earth Sciences, Graduate School of Science, Chiba University, Japan4Institute of Space science, National Central University, Zhongli City, Taiwan

5International Space Research Institute, Bern, Switzerland

EGU2015-7840 1

Current retrospective validation of pre‐earthquake signals are like "Texas sharpshooting:” Shoot at the barn and then draw circles around the bullet holes.

Our goal is to start detection of pre‐earthquake signals prospectively only for M6+ over several validation sites

EGU2015-7840: Ouzounov et al - Prospective validation of pre-earthquake atmospheric signals

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1. Geo space approach to study pre-earthquake phenomena

2. Multi Sensor Networking– A join analysis of atmospheric satellite and ground observation observation

3. Some 2014 prospective case studies – Japan, Greece, California

4. Summary

Outline


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M6.9 Aegean seaM6.0 California

M6.5 Japan

Where we should start looking for pre‐earthquake signals?M6+ for 2014


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Concept of Multi Sensor Observations

Observations:


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Multi Sensor Networking Analysis (MSNA)

GPS /Total Electron Content

Seismo – tectonic pattern

Water Level/ Water Temp

Data Integration

Radon/ Gas variations

Ionosphere

Atm. Temp &Humidity (AcP)

Satellite ThermalAnomalies

New Observations

Methodology


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SatelliteSensor

Detection

SatelliteSensor

SatelliteSensor

Modeling

Monitoring

Alerting

SatelliteSensor

GroundSensor

GroundSensor

GroundSensor

GroundSensor

Data Mining IntegrationLAICMechanism

MSNA Processing

M 6.9 ‐ AEGEAN SEA ‐ 2014‐05‐24 09:25:02 UTCPre – earthquake signature in atmosphere and ionosphere

Pre –earthquake signature detected by Satellite thermal radiation observations. Alert for NE Greece –NW Turkey was issued on April 17, 2014.

Anomaly detection -37 days

Validation with MSNA : #1 Greece


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M 6.9 ‐ AEGEAN SEA ‐ 2014‐05‐24 09:25:02 UTCPre –earthquake Atmospheric potential anomaly

May 23, 2014 May 23, 2014 May 24, 2014 May 24, 2014

18:00 21:00 00:00 03:00

TIR Anomaly detection -37 days Atmospheric anomaly -1-2 days

Validation with MSNA : #1Greece


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M 6.9 ‐ AEGEAN SEA ‐ 2014‐05‐24 09:25:02 UTCValidation with MSNA : #1Greece


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Retrospective analysisPre –earthquake TEC signature in the ionosphere –

from GPS observatory ‐ Athens, Greece

TEC anomaly with Seismo -ionospheric originDuration- 8 hours, Lag time- 38 hours in advance

Day of the year, 2014

Validation with MSNA : #2 Japan M6.5 of July 12, 2014 Eastern Honshu, Japan

With red star – epicenter of M6.5 07.12.2014, Red solid lines‐ plate boundaries , Brown lines –fault systems, orange dash circle – estimated region for the future epicenter

Alert was issued on June 18, 2014, 24 days in advance


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M 6.5 of July 12, 2014 Eastern Honshu, Japan

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06.17.2014 06.18.2014 06.19.2014

ALERT06.18.2014‐24 days

07.12.2014M7 E. Honshu

Earthquake

24 days

Daily Detection Map: Alertwasissued on 06.18.201424 daysin advance

threshold


Validation with MSNA : #2 Japan

July 25, 2014 July 26, 2014 July 27, 2014 July 28, 2014

July 29, 2014 July 30, 2014 July 31, 2014 Aug 01 , 2014

Daily satellite OLR detection maps over CA July25‐Aug 05, 2014

Aug 02, 2014 Aug 03, 2014 Aug 04, 2014 Aug 05, 2014

Check poster

EGU2015‐6014


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Validation with MSNA ‐#3 California

08.24.2014M6.0

M6.0 August 24, 2014 South Napa

OLR (NPOES)

OLR mapAug‐01‐2014(NPOES)


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Check poster

EGU2015‐6014Validation with MSNA ‐#3 California

08.24.2014M6.1 S. Napa, CA

Earthquake

ALERT08.04.2014‐20 days

20 days

M6.0 August 24, 2014 Napa, CA

ACP (NASA GEOS5)

OLR (NPOES)


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Check poster


M6.0 August 24, 2014 Napa, CA


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Check poster


CODE GIM

Lower bound TEC anomaly 1 day before Seismic event

Red/black mark indicates upper/lower‐bound anomaly days

GPS/TEC Cross –correlation coefficients

GPS TEC

Points to take home 1.We study specific physical parameters variation in atmosphere and ionosphere which we found connected with the earthquake preparation process. LAIC concept can explain some processes driven by atmospheric ionization, related to natural process (earthquake, volcanoes) and environmental radioactive pollution;

2. Validation #1: MSNA -We have designed MSNA as inter- disciplinary approach aimed to study physical processes preceding major earthquakes events (M6+). This Multi-sensor Web systematically analyze the transient processes in atmosphere and ionosphere based on several types of space and ground observations as: thermal radiation field, GPS/TEC, Atm. temp/RH and and gas/Ion;

3. Validation #2.MSNA Prospective validation demonstrated that prospective detection over major hazards regions is feasible. The lead time for the pre-earthquake anomalous signals varies between 1 and 40 days. A joint response been observed when multiple parameters were analyzed.


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Presentations & Public Speaking

Ouzounov et al. Presentation at the EGU General Assembly Vienna 2015 Prospective validation of pre-earthquake atmospheric signals and their potential for short–term earthquake forecasting