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2nd Bifacial PV Workshop in Chambery, France
$1/W System Price: How Bifacial Modules will Beat the Needed Efficiency and Cost Targets
Fatima Toor, Ph.D.
Research Analyst
Lux Research, Inc. May 26th, 2014
2 2nd Bifacial PV Workshop in Chambery, France
Agenda
Photovoltaic (PV) Market Trends
Defining the Need for PV Innovation
Bifacial Modules as the Winning Crystalline Silicon Module Technology
3 2nd Bifacial PV Workshop in Chambery, France
100% Overcapacity in 2012…..however 2015 will Bring Supply Constraint
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Module Supply/
Demand (MW)
Supply - Tier 1 Supply - Tier 2 Supply - Tier 3 Demand
Source: Lux Research Q4 2013 Supply Tracker
4 2nd Bifacial PV Workshop in Chambery, France
Crystalline Silicon Will Dominate the PV Module Demand
Source: Lux Research
5 2nd Bifacial PV Workshop in Chambery, France
Cost, Efficiency, and Price are the Fundamental Drivers of the Photovoltaic Industry
Price & Profit Margin
Incentives & Demand
Cost & Module Efficiency
Source: Lux Research
© Lux Research 6 2nd Bifacial PV Workshop in Chambery, France
Projected Utility-scale Installation Prices Will Not Reach SunShot Targets with Today’s Technologies
$0.50
$1.00
$1.50
$2.00
$2.50
$3.00
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
202
1
2022
2023
202
4
2025
202
6
2027
202
8
202
9
2030
Installed system price
($/W)
CdTe mc-Si Target
$0.90/W
$0.27/W $0.13/W
Source: Lux Research Report, “Continuing Education: Going Back to School for Photovoltaic Innovation”
© Lux Research 7 2nd Bifacial PV Workshop in Chambery, France
Incumbent Module Technologies in 2013 Are Far above Target Cost and Efficiency Needed to Reduce System Prices Below $1/W
$0.00
$0.50
$1.00
$1.50
10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
Module Cost ($/W)
Module Efficiency (%)
Target module efficiency and cost necessary to reach $1/W system price
Below target
Above target
CdTe
CIGS
mc-Si
c-Si
TF-Si HCPV
Source: Lux Research Report, “Continuing Education: Going Back to School for Photovoltaic Innovation”
© Lux Research 8 2nd Bifacial PV Workshop in Chambery, France
Disruptive x-Si PV Technologies Include, (A) Bifacial Solar Cells, (B) Silver-free Solar Cell Metallization, and (C) Epitaxial Silicon Solar Cells
Source: Lux Research Report, “Continuing Education: Going Back to School for Photovoltaic Innovation”
© Lux Research 9 2nd Bifacial PV Workshop in Chambery, France
Key Research Labs and Corporations Developing Disruptive x-Si PV Technologies
Key Innovations Champion Cell Efficiency
(%) Leading Research Groups
Large Corporations and Start-ups
Bifacial solar cells 21.3% (Front)
19.8% (Rear)
Rohatgi (Georgia Tech), Harney (ISC-Konstanz), Warta
(Fraunhofer), Yang (Jiao Tong University)
ITRI, LG Electronics, Hitachi, Panasonic, Gamma Solar, Trina
Silver-free metallization
23.5% (Electroplated copper) Glunz, (Fraunhofer), Poortmans (IMEC), Lee (Sejong University),
Lemiti (Lyon University)
SunPower, SolarWorld, First Solar/TetraSun,
Solexel, Silevo, Hyundai Heavy Industries, Total, Kaneka, Technic, Rena,
Schmid
Epitaxial Si 20.6%
Poortmans (IMEC), Minowa (Tokyo Institute of Technology), Willeke (Fraunhofer), Bergmann
(University of Stuttgart)
Solexel, Silevo, Applied Materials, Integrated
Photovoltaics, AmberWave, Crystal Solar
Source: Lux Research Report, “Continuing Education: Going Back to School for Photovoltaic Innovation”
© Lux Research 10 2nd Bifacial PV Workshop in Chambery, France
Standard Mono-Crystalline Silicon (c-Si) Modules will be Below Target with 21% efficiency at $0.46/W in 2030
Source: Lux Research Report, “Continuing Education: Going Back to School for Photovoltaic Innovation”
© Lux Research 11 2nd Bifacial PV Workshop in Chambery, France
Bifacial x-Si Modules will Beat the Efficiency and Cost Targets Needed for $1/W System Price
Source: Lux Research Report, “Continuing Education: Going Back to School for Photovoltaic Innovation”
© Lux Research
2nd Bifacial PV Workshop in Chambery, France
2x2 PV’s Technology Disruption Grid to Evaluate Future-Facing PV Technologies
Commercial Feasibility Technology Potential
• Manufactured Efficiency Potential (40%) • Materials Cost (25%) • Durability/Lifetime (25%) • Throughput Impact (10%)
• Process Maturity (40%) • Scalability (30%) • Material Similarity (20%) • Capital Cost (10%)
Vertical Axis Horizontal Axis
Source: Lux Research Report, “Continuing Education: Going Back to School for Photovoltaic Innovation”
© Lux Research 13 2nd Bifacial PV Workshop in Chambery, France
Bifacial x-Si Modules will Lead the Way in PV Innovation
Source: Lux Research Report, “Continuing Education: Going Back to School for Photovoltaic Innovation”
14 2nd Bifacial PV Workshop in Chambery, France
Easy to Scale and Manufacture, Bifacial x-Si Modules will enable Cheap Solar Electricity Generation
PV innovation across the value chain is necessary for
• manufacturers to differentiate products and maintain sustainable profit margins
• solar electricity to become cost competitive to coal and natural gas
x-Si bifacial modules have the potential to reach 30% efficiency at $0.36/W manufacturing costs by 2030 enabling below $1/W system price at sustainable margins (>=15%) for module manufacturers
With minor additions to the existing cell production lines a lot can be gained by manufacturing bifacial modules relative to the incumbent one-sided x-Si modules
Thank you
Fatima Toor, Ph.D.
Research Analyst
+1 (617) 502-5318