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How do voters make How do voters make up their minds?up their minds?
Who Votes?Who Votes?
People who are registeredPeople who are registered People with more educationPeople with more education People with more interest in People with more interest in
politicspolitics People with higher incomesPeople with higher incomes African-Americans (all other African-Americans (all other
things equal)things equal)
Turnout 2008Turnout 2008
Voter Turnout, Voter Turnout, 2004 & 20082004 & 2008
72 71
89 89.6
64 63.6
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Percent Registered % Registered whovoted
Percent voted (ofvoting agepopulation)
Effect of education on Effect of education on turnout (2008)turnout (2008)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Less than high school .High school graduate .Some college or associate'sdegree
.Bachelor's degree .Advanced degree
Voted 2004 Voted 2008
Effect of income on Effect of income on turnout, 2008turnout, 2008
0102030405060708090
<$20K $20-29K $30-39K $40-49K $50K-74,999
$75K-$99,999
$100K+
voted 2004 voted 2008
Effect of race on Effect of race on turnout? (2008)turnout? (2008)
010203040506070
White,non-
Hispanic
Black Hispanic(any race)
Asian
2004 voted 2008 voted
Did race make a Did race make a difference?difference?
0
20
40
60
80
100
African American(11% -13% ofelectorate)
Whites (74% -77% ofelectorate)
Kerry Obama
Youth voter turnoutYouth voter turnout
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
18-24 years old 25-34 years old
2000 turnout 2004 turnout 2008 turnout
The year of the youth The year of the youth vote?vote?
2004 and 2008 turnout rates2004 and 2008 turnout rates
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
18-24years old
25-34years old
35-44years old
45-54years old
55 yearsand older
2004 turnout 2008 turnout
Voters are IgnorantVoters are Ignorant
What do voters know?What do voters know?
the United States is a democracy the United States is a democracy (88%)(88%)
presidents serve 4 years (93%)presidents serve 4 years (93%) know that popular votes don’t know that popular votes don’t
elect the president (69%)elect the president (69%)
What do voters know?What do voters know?
99% can name the US president99% can name the US president 25% can name both of their US 25% can name both of their US
SenatorsSenators 29% can correctly name their 29% can correctly name their
representative in the Houserepresentative in the House
What do voters know?What do voters know?
31% can describe affirmative 31% can describe affirmative actionaction
39% can locate Massachusetts on 39% can locate Massachusetts on a mapa map
15% can say what the New Deal 15% can say what the New Deal waswas
20% could name a memorable 20% could name a memorable political sloganpolitical slogan
How do voters decide?How do voters decide?
Party ID/IdeologyParty ID/Ideology
Party ID as predictor of Party ID as predictor of vote choice for presidentvote choice for president
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1952 1960 1968 1976 1984 1992 2000
Strong Dems Strong Reps
How do voters decide?How do voters decide?
Party ID/IdeologyParty ID/Ideology Evaluations of the current Evaluations of the current
president, current conditions, president, current conditions, economyeconomy
Issues (opinions not otherwise Issues (opinions not otherwise guided by above)guided by above)
The candidates’ personalitiesThe candidates’ personalities Promises and policiesPromises and policies
Do voters really decide Do voters really decide based on issues presented based on issues presented in the campaign?in the campaign?
Median Voter Theorem:Median Voter Theorem:– In a winner-take-all system, parties should In a winner-take-all system, parties should
promote policies that appeal to the voter at the promote policies that appeal to the voter at the median of the distribution of voter preferences.median of the distribution of voter preferences.
In Presidential elections, ensures that In Presidential elections, ensures that candidates will gravitate toward the middle, candidates will gravitate toward the middle, and NOT try to distinguish their positionsand NOT try to distinguish their positions
Do Presidents Win Do Presidents Win Mandates?Mandates?
Only if:Only if: Clear campaign positionsClear campaign positions Voters know what their own positions Voters know what their own positions
areare Voters know what president’s positions Voters know what president’s positions
areare President wins clear electoral victoryPresident wins clear electoral victory
