AGT Case Study:

 THE ORANGE REVOLUTION 

Vaida TamelaitytėEdgaras VorobjovasJaime Mato Alonso

Ruben Rebollo Feliciano

Vilnius, 2011

Content

• Pre-elections• Elections• Protests• Outcome• The game theory

Presidential Elections First Round

CandidatesOleksandr Moroz Petro

Symonenko

Viktor Yushchenko

Opposition leader

Viktor YanukovychIncumbent,

Prime Minister

4,97% 5,82%

39,87% 39,32%

Presidential Elections Second Round

V.Yushchenko vs V.Yanukovich

Cronology of the demonstrations

• 22nd of November: THE PROTESTS BEGIN• 23rd of November: March to the Supreme Rada

THE FIRST WEEK

• Creation of the Committee of National Salvation

• Yushchenko taking Presidential Oath illegally

• The threat of the BLUES

• November 28th: The threat of the ARMY

• KGB with protesters?

• December 1st- The support of the Supreme RADA:

      Non-confidence vote

• The President Leonid Kuchma's refusal

• 3rd of December: The Supreme Court acts

RE – ELECTIONS

• The DEAL:

           New elections ONLY

           If Constitution is reformed    

 December 26:

• 3rd round of electionsResults:

  Viktor Yushchenko 51.99% vs 44.20% Yanukovich

 January 2005 • Viktor Yushchenko swear in

as the 3rd President of the Republic of Ukraine

The conflict

• The conflict began after the declaration of the winner by the Election Authority. Was maintained over weeks due to the fact that both the incumbent (the holder of the office or the Blues) and the opposition (the Oranges) had great beliefs that had great potential to win; without forgetting the important role played by the society that, for the first time since the recent creation of the state became aware of itself to defend what was theirs.

• And at the end, as all we know, only the oranges turned out to have the best view of the situation.

The Players:

Defender of the SQ Law Enforcement

The Revolutionary Agent

Preferences

Assumption for G:

Up > U~p

Up can be achieved by:

Soft Power

Use of Force

Assumption for O:

Uo >U~o

Uo can be achieved by:

Demanding

Revolting

etc.

The Game Tree

 

Preferences

G:  B1 > B2 > 01 > 02

O:  01 > 02 > B1 > B2

The Government vs Revolutionary AgentWho gets it all?!

G:  B1 > B2 > 01 > 02

O:  01 > 02 > B1 > B2

No Revolution?

No Revolution?Not really!

=> Not Stable Preferences!

 Not Stable Preferences, the proof

 => "Alliance Portfolio"  

 => Multidimensional policy space 

THE END