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Today we introduce the Purple Election Perspective. This monthly snapshot will provide a bipartisan look at key indicators for 2012. In our first edition, we focus on critical economic and opinion data points that will set the national political terrain for the upcoming cycle. We also add essential context – comparison data for other incumbents over the last eight cycles. At this early stage, President Obama finds himself facing an extremely difficult political environment as he ramps up his re-election campaign. Nearly every indicator – economic and opinion – puts him in a poor position relative to other successful incumbents. It is important to emphasize that it is premature to make predictions – and as you’ll see in this month’s Purple Election Perspective, other incumbents have seen dramatic improvements during their re-election year. Enjoy, and let us know if you have any thoughts or comments ([email protected]).
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The 2012 Election September, 2011
T h e P u r p l e P e r s p e c t i v e :
815 Slaters Lane Alexandria, VA 22314 | 703.548.7877 | www.purplestrategies.com
Doug Usher, Ph.D. Managing Director, Purple Insights
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Unbiased, data-driven analysis of the political environment that helps our clients prepare for the future.
Key metrics put in proper historical context to offer real insight, not just the latest spin from either side.
Updated regularly to provide the latest take on current political conditions.
What is The Purple Perspective?
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Overview
Obama faces substantial headwinds going into the 2012 campaign
Structural economic factors are driving a sour national mood
Polling indicators are at critical levels compared to other incumbents
Nonetheless, it remains too early for predictions:
Numbers have changed dramatically in past re-election campaigns
The GOP brand is not strong
Obama is likely to have a 9 figure financial advantage
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Early head-to-head match-ups at either the state or national level
What to watch… and not watch.
Fundraising numbers, including related Super PACs
Monthly job numbers
Obama job ratings at the national and state levels
Daily reports from the campaign trail
Watch:
Avoid:
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By nearly every key metric, Obama is at a disadvantage compared to other incumbents
Implications for Incumbent
Metric STRUCTURAL
Growth Rate in GDP
Unemployment Rate
Average Monthly Job Creation
OPINION
Presidential Approval
Party Favorability
Satisfaction with Direction Of The Country
Current State of Economy
Prospective Evaluation of Economy
Personal Financial Situation Last Year
Expected Financial Situation Next Year
TOTAL
v
GDP growth is middling compared to others at this point
Growth Rate in GDP (Through Second Quarter, Year 3)
Carter 0.4%
Clinton 0.9%
Bush II 3.4%
Reagan 9.3%
Obama 1.0%
Bush I 2.7%
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis 6
-‐10%
-‐5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
1/2 2/2 3/2 4/2 1/3 2/3 3/3 4/3 1/4 2/4 3/4 4/4
Econ
omic Growth Rate
Quarter/Year in term
Growth Rate in GDP (2005 Dollars)
Carter Reagan Bush I Clinton Bush II Obama
There has been wide variance in GDP growth in election years
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis 7
2011 unemployment puts Obama in a weak position
Unemployment Rate (July, Year 3)
Carter 5.7%
Bush II 6.2%
Obama 9.1%
Bush I 6.8%
Reagan 9.4%
Clinton 5.7%
Source: Bureau of Labor StaKsKcs 8
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
11%
1/3 2/3 3/3 4/3 5/3 6/3 7/3 8/3 9/3 10/3 11/3 12/3 1/4 2/4 3/4 4/4 5/4 6/4 7/4 8/4 9/4 10/4 11/4
Une
mploymen
t Rate
Month/Year in term
Unemployment Rate
Carter Reagan Bush I Clinton Bush II Obama
Reagan saw dramatic improvements in unemployment during his re-election
Source: Bureau of Labor StaKsKcs 9
Monthly job creation is particularly troublesome
Source: Bureau of Labor StaKsKcs 10
Average Monthly Job Creation (Through July, Year 3)
Carter 315
Bush II -85
Bush I 44
Reagan -16
Clinton 253
Obama -103
-‐600
-‐400
-‐200
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1/3 2/3 3/3 4/3 5/3 6/3 7/3 8/3 9/3 10/3 11/3 12/3 1/4 2/4 3/4 4/4 5/4 6/4 7/4 8/4 9/4 10/4 11/4
Jobs Created
, In Th
ousand
s
Month/Year in term
Average Monthly Job CreaKon Carter Reagan Bush I Clinton Bush II Obama
Reagan’s spike in job creation during the election year buoyed him
Source: Bureau of Labor StaKsKcs 11
Obama’s job approval hovers at the low end for incumbents at this point
% Saying Approve (August, Year 3)
Do you approve or disapprove of the way _____ is handling his job as president?
Source: Gallup 12
Bush II 60%
Bush I 69%
Reagan 43%
Obama 38%
Clinton 45%
Carter 32%
50% appears to be a key demarcation line
Do you approve or disapprove of the way _____ is handling his job as president?
Source: Gallup 13
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
1/3 2/3 3/3 4/3 5/3 6/3 7/3 8/3 9/3 10/3 11/3 12/3 1/4 2/4 3/4 4/4 5/4 6/4 7/4 8/4 9/4 10/4 11/4
% App
roving
Month/Year in term
Job Approval
Carter Reagan Bush I Clinton Bush II Obama
At the same time, the Republican brand is damaged
The Democratic Party
The Republican Party
Favorable 47%
NET 0
Unfavorable 47%
33%
-26
59%
Source: CNN/Opinion Research CorporaKon 14
Satisfaction with the country’s direction is very low
% Saying Satisfied (August, Year 3)
Bush II 46%
Reagan --
Clinton 32%
Bush I 43%
Obama 11%
In general, are you saKsfied or dissaKsfied with the way things are going in the United States at this Kme?
Source: Gallup 15
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
1/3 2/3 3/3 4/3 5/3 6/3 7/3 8/3 9/3 10/3 11/3 12/3 1/4 2/4 3/4 4/4 5/4 6/4 7/4 8/4 9/4 10/4 11/4
% Saying SaKsfie
d
Month/Year in term
SaKsfacKon with Ways Things Are Going in the US
Bush I Clinton Bush II Obama
Watching the trend over time will be critical In general, are you saKsfied or dissaKsfied with the way things are going in the United States at this Kme?
Source: Gallup 16
Positive evaluations of the economy are low
% Saying Excellent or Good
(August, Year 3)
How would you rate economic condiKons in this country today -‐-‐ as excellent, good, only fair, or poor?
Source: Gallup 17
Bush II 25%
Reagan --
Clinton --
Obama 8%
Bush I --
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
1/3 2/3 3/3 4/3 5/3 6/3 7/3 8/3 9/3 10/3 11/3 12/3 1/4 2/4 3/4 4/4 5/4 6/4 7/4 8/4 9/4 10/4 11/4
% Saying Excellent/G
ood
Month/Year in term
Current State of the Economy Bush I Clinton Bush II Obama
Recent winning incumbents have seen upswings
How would you rate economic condiKons in this country today -‐-‐ as excellent, good, only fair, or poor?
Source: Gallup 18
Voters are slightly more optimistic about the direction of the economy than under Bush Sr. and Clinton at this point
% Saying Better (August, Year 3)
Do you think the naKonal economy is geZng be[er, staying the same, or geZng worse?
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Bush II 26%
Reagan 50%
Bush I 17%
Obama 21%
Clinton 15%
Source: American Research Associates *Pre-‐May 2011 quesKon wording: For each item I name, please tell me if it’s geZng BETTER, geZng WORSE, or staying about the same. How about [ITEM]? Is that geZng MUCH be[er/worse or SOMEWHAT be[er/worse? The naKonal economy (Washington Post)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
1/3 2/3 3/3 4/3 5/3 6/3 7/3 8/3 9/3 10/3 11/3 12/3 1/4 2/4 3/4 4/4 5/4 6/4 7/4 8/4 9/4 10/4 11/4
% Saying Ge
Rng BeT
er
Month/Year in term
ProspecKve Economic EvaluaKon Reagan Bush I Clinton Bush II Obama
However, Obama’s trend is in the wrong direction Do you think the naKonal economy is geZng be[er, staying the same, or geZng worse?
20 Source: American Research Associates *Pre-‐May 2011 quesKon wording: For each item I name, please tell me if it’s geZng BETTER, geZng WORSE, or staying about the same. How about [ITEM]? Is that geZng MUCH be[er/worse or SOMEWHAT be[er/worse? The naKonal economy (Washington Post)
Retrospective evaluations of the economy are at lows for an incumbent
% Saying Better (Dec., Year 2)
Would you say that you (and your family living there) are be[er off or worse off financially than you were a year ago?
*August Year 3 data available for previous presidents; December Year 2 available for Obama
Source: Thomson Reuters and The University of Michigan poll 21
Bush II 41%
Reagan 36%
Bush I 37%
Clinton 45%
Obama 23%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
1/1 3/1 5/1 7/1 9/1 11/1 1/2 3/2 5/2 7/2 9/2 11/2 1/3 3/3 5/3 7/3 9/3 11/3 1/4 3/4 5/4 7/4 9/4 11/4
% Saying Be
Ter Last Y
ear
Month/Year in term
Financial SituaKon Last Year
Reagan Bush I Clinton Bush II Obama
There is not an upward trend going into 2012 Would you say that you (and your family living there) are be[er off or worse off financially than you were a year ago?
Source: Thomson Reuters and The University of Michigan 22
There is little optimism about potential economic improvement
% Saying Better (August, Year 3)
Bush II 36%
Reagan 37%
Bush I 37%
Obama 25%
Clinton 37%
A year from now, do you expect the financial situaKon in your household to be be[er than it is today, the same as it is today, or worse than it is today?
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Source: American Research Group
*Pre-‐2011 quesKon wording: Now looking ahead-‐-‐do you think that a year from now you (and your family living there) will be be[er off financially, or worse off, or just about the same as now? (Thomson Reuters and The University of Michigan)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
1/1 3/1 5/1 7/1 9/1 11/1 1/2 3/2 5/2 7/2 9/2 11/2 1/3 3/3 5/3 7/3 9/3 11/3 1/4 3/4 5/4 7/4 9/4 11/4
% Saying Be
Ter Next Y
ear
Month/Year in term
Financial SituaKon Next Year
Reagan Bush I Clinton Bush II Obama
There has been a down-tick in the most recent data
A year from now, do you expect the financial situaKon in your household to be be[er than it is today, the same as it is today, or worse than it is today?
Source: American Research Group
*Pre-‐2011 quesKon wording: Now looking ahead-‐-‐do you think that a year from now you (and your family living there) will be be[er off financially, or worse off, or just about the same as now? (Thomson Reuters and The University of Michigan) 24
Summary, September 2011
Implications for Incumbent
Metric STRUCTURAL
Growth Rate in GDP
Unemployment Rate
Average Monthly Job Creation
OPINION
Presidential Approval
Party Favorability
Satisfaction with Direction Of The Country
Current State of Economy
Prospective Evaluation of Economy
Personal Financial Situation Last Year
Expected Financial Situation Next Year
TOTAL
v
Electoral calculations
Focus on Purple States
Party prospects in Congress
Future Purple Perspectives will include…
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