Review of the article

The China factor in US alliances in East Asia and the Asia Pacific 1

Allen San Pablo-Baviera

Slides prepared by: Shree Krishna Silwal

10/21/2014

Main theme of Article

1. What are China’s perception and concernsregarding the US alliance system as a whole andregarding specific bilateral military alliances ofthe US?

2. What is the China’s place in the US worldviewafter cold war ?

3. What are the view of US allies regarding China?

4. What are the changes in the perception of Chinaregarding the future alliance development inafter math of post 9/11 incident ?

Topics included

• Main arguments

• Critical views.

• Conclusion.

What is Alliance?

• A union or association formed for mutualbenefit, especially between countries ororganizations.

• A relationship based on similarity of interests,nature, or qualities.

US Allies in East Asia and Asia-Pacific

China’s view of US alliances.

• China’s attitude towards the US alliancesystem had always been pragmatic.

• Though there was a close strategic andsecurity cooperation between them duringthe cold war period, the Sino-US relation hasdeteriorated after the end of cold war.

Contd..

• China’s human right situation, militarymodernization, weapons sale to countriesperceive as hostile to the US, provision ofmissile technology to some developingcountries, irredentist claim over Taiwan andthe South China sea are the issues for whichChina has been highly criticized by the US andits allies.

Contd..

• China also regards some of the activities ofWashington as a challenge. The policy ofGeorge W. Bush in 2001 to take any measuresto defend Taiwan and military sales to Taiwanis taken as a violation of the one China policy.Similarly, on Tibet issue, China regards theinvolvement of the US as interference in itsinternal affairs.

What is the China’s place in the US worldview after cold war ?

• It seems that the US has not taken decisionwhether to consider China as a ‘strategicpartner’ or ‘a strategic competitor’.

• It may be due to the clashes of ideologiesbetween them regarding the liberal values,market economy and democracy.

Contd..

• China has been put forward as a new threat topeace and stability in the Asia-Pacific region atleast prior to 9/11 as it has emerged as a risingand dissatisfied power and huge critic of USforeign policy on the issues of interventionand unilateralism

What are the view of US allies regarding China?

• The allies of US view China differently but most ofthem consider China as a possible threat to thesmaller and weaker neighbors and there is a self-fulfilling prophecy called ‘China Threat Theory’which is growing stronger.

• Among Washington allies, the most committedone who has agreed to defend Taiwan against theuse of force by China and who is much moreconcerned about the growing military potential isAustralia.

Contd..

• The attitude of Japan towards China has longbeen dominated by historical and cultural factors.The territorial law passed by China whichincluded the Senkakus and conductive nuclearweapons test has alarmed Japan and she regardsChina as her threat.

• For Philippines, the occupation of Mischief Reefand the increased presence of Chinese navalvessels in its claimed waters posed a threat.

Contd..

• Regarding the South East Asia’s the majorconcern about China is the territorial andmaritime disputes in the South China sea and thepower projection in the maritime arena.

• But all claimants do not wish to drag the US toresolve the issue. South-East Asian nations likeMalaysia, Indonesia agrees to find solutionthrough bilateral means.

• Even Vietnam who have waged war against Chinado not openly support US involvement and haspreferred to focus on bilateral negotiations.

Contd..

• The neutrality of the ASEAN nations can be seen duringthe Chinese use of force against Taiwan, in which theyeven do not support for the US action of sending in itsaircraft carriers.

• The assistance packages provided by China duringfinancial and economic crisis of 1997 to Indonesia andThailand helped to change the image of China as apotential economic threat to a potential benefactor.

• Although US allies see China as a possible threat but‘new security concept’ of China has emerged andpaved a way to mitigate conflicts through peacefulconsultations and cooperative security.

The 9/11 after math

• Prior to 9/11, China was taken as a serious rising threatbut post 9/11 has altered the situation and that alsoimplies to relation between US and China .

• One school of thought view this incident have helpedChina as it draws away the attention of the US and itsallies and the international community as a whole fromthe ‘China threat’.

• And the detention facilities in Guantanamo forsuspected terrorist has brought the US under criticismand this has put less pressure to China from the West.

Contd..

• However, the legitimization of the US globalleadership and strengthening the hegemonicposition of US has created a possibility ofencirclement of China with the Asia.

Critical views- China factor won’t make it next super power

1. ’China threat’ among the US allies is due to thegreater number of military force but it is untestedone and hasn't fought a major campaign since adisastrous war with Vietnam in 1979.

2. China’s role in alliance formation with countriesof Asia eg.Russia, Japan, its role as an observer inSAARC, ASEAN +3 and BRICS is limited in economydimension rather than other dimensions.

Contd..

3. China has not been able to influence itsneighboring countries through the use of softpower (culture, language, values) and henceweakening its impact on the global arena.

4. The ‘new seurity concept’ put forward byChina to avoid the security dilemma and theCPC’s focus on China’s national rejuvenationfollowing a realist notion seems contradictory .

Contd..

5. The China factor is still evolving. Though the ideology and political culture is unique in itself it has not been a favored one by the East Asian and South-East Asian nations leaving some exceptions.

Contd..

• 6. Though the emergence of the String of Pearls (the network of Chinese military and

commercial facilities and relationships along its sea lines

of communication ) is an indication of China’s growing geopolitical influence, but the encirclement of China by US allies is still prevalent and difficult to penetrate through.

conclusion

• The China Factor is definitely came into play after 9/11 and grows even more after the financial crisis of 2008 . Though it might surpass the US in economy in near future, it would be too soon to make a conclusion that China is next super power.

• A truly strategic partnership between countries of Asia is needed

• A cooperative method It will have to be followed toward removing the bases for strategic mistrust.

• Beyond that an inclusive and effective provisions for regional security needed to reinforce for building peace and security.