Scotland Public Opinion Monitor August 2014

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Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential © Ipsos MORI

Scottish Public Opinion Monitor August 2014

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Should Scotland be an independent country?

Referendum voting intention

Base: All (1,006); all certain to vote (831). Data collected among 1,006 Scottish adults 16+, 28th July – 3rd August 2014

Yes 37%

No 52%

Undecided 11%

All voters

Yes 40%

No 54%

Undecided 7%

Certain to vote

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Referendum voting intention – recent trend

Base: All certain to vote. Data collected among c1,000 Scottish adults

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14

No

Yes

Undecided

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Voting intention excluding undecided

Base: All excluding undecided (893); all certain to vote excluding undecided (771). Data collected among 1,006 Scottish adults 16+, 28th July – 3rd

August 2014

Yes 42%

No 58%

All voters

Yes 42%

No 58%

Certain to vote

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Referendum voting intention excluding undecided –

recent trend

Base: All certain to vote excluding undecided. Data collected among c1,000 Scottish adults

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%


No

Yes

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Voting intention amongst those certain to vote and

definitely decided how they will vote

Base: All certain to vote and definitely decided (683). Data collected among 1,006 Scottish adults 16+, 28th July – 3rd August 2014

Yes 41%

No 59%

All definitely decided and certain to vote

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Feb-13 May-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Feb-14 May-14 Aug-14

No

Yes

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And, how likely would you be to vote in an immediate referendum, on a scale of 1 to 10, where 10 means you would be absolutely certain to vote and 1 that you would be absolutely certain NOT to vote?

Turnout is likely to be high

Base: All. Data collected among c1,000 Scottish adults

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%


55+

All

16-24

% Absolutely certain to vote

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33% Scots who…

may not vote (19%)

will vote but are undecided (5%)

will vote but may change their vote (9%)

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17% 20% 15%

83% 80% 85%

All Yes voters No voters

Definitelydecided

May changemind

Have you definitely decided to vote in this way or is there a chance you may change your mind before you vote?

Definitely decided or might you change your mind?

Base: All giving a voting intention (893). Data collected among 1,006 Scottish adults 16+, 28th July – 3rd August 2014

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

Feb-13 May-13 Aug-13 Nov-13 Feb-14 May-14 Aug-14

% Definitely decided

No

Yes

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Which way are you most inclined to vote?

Which way are undecided voters leaning?

Base: All undecided (113). Data collected among 1,006 Scottish adults 16+, 28th July – 3rd August 2014

Yes 29%

No 23%

Undecided 47%

All undecided voters

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If you still haven’t made up your mind on the day of the referendum, which of the following are you most likely to do?

What will voters do if they haven’t made up their

minds by polling day?

Base: All who are undecided or may change their mind (254). Data collected among 1,006 Scottish adults 16+, 28th July – 3rd August 2014

Vote Yes 26%

Vote No 38%

Not vote at all 22%

Other/Don't know 14%

All who are undecided or may change their mind

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Long-term trend of support for independence

Data taken from MORI and Ipsos MORI polling (1999-07 data taken from Scottish Social Attitudes Survey)

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 2013

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Voting intention by gender

Base: All certain to vote (831). Data collected among 1,006 Scottish adults 16+, 28th July – 3rd August 2014

47%

48%

Yes

No

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

Men Women

% voting Yes

33%

59%

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40%

53%

7%

Voting intention by age group


Yes

No

44%

54%

56%

36%

8%

33%

60%

7%

16-24 25-34

35-54 55+ 0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

16-24* 25-34 35-54 55+

*Jan 2012 – May 2013 this was 18-24 year olds

% voting Yes

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Voting intention by levels of deprivation


43%

56%

26%

66%

Most deprived areas Least deprived areas

Yes

No

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Most deprived areas Least deprived areas

% voting Yes

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95% 4% 90% 5%

Voting intention by party support


Yes

No

84%

11%

18%

77% 5%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

SNP Lab Con Lib Dem

% voting Yes

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Impact of the Commonwealth

Games

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18

Commonwealth Games

Very closely 27%

Fairly closely 42%

Not very closely 16%

Not closely at all 15%

How closely, if at all, have you been following the games?

Base: All. Data collected among 1,006 Scottish adults 16+, 28th July – 3rd August 2014

Very successful

67%

Fairly successful

29%

Fairly/very unsuccessful

1%

Don't know 3%

Based on what you have read, seen or heard, how successful or unsuccessful do you think the

Games have been overall?

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What impact, if any, do you think the Games will have on how you plan to vote in the referendum?

Impact of the Games on referendum voting

More likely to vote Yes

7%

More likely to vote No

3%

Make no difference

89%

14%

1%

10%

0%

5%

1%

Yes voters No voters Undecidedvoters

More likely Yes More likely No


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Scottish Parliament voting

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If there were elections to the Scottish Parliament tomorrow, how would you use your first vote?

Voting intention for Scottish Parliament elections

Base: All aged 18+ giving a voting intention (851); all aged 18+ certain to vote and giving a voting intention (632). Data collected among 1,006 Scottish

adults 16+, 28th July – 3rd August 2014

SNP 36%

Lab 34%

Cons 16%

Lib Dem 6%

Green 4%

Others 3%

All giving a voting intention

SNP 39%

Lab 32%

Cons 17%

Lib Dem 6%

Green 3%

Others 3%

Certain to vote

SNP lead

+2

SNP lead

+7

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If there were elections to the Scottish Parliament tomorrow, how would you use your first vote?

0

10

20

30

40

50

60 Labour SNP Conservative Liberal Democrats Other

Base: All certain to vote. Data collected among c1,000 Scottish adults.

Voting intention for Scottish Parliament elections

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Perceptions of key figures

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How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his job as First Minister/Leader of the Better Together Campaign?

Salmond versus Darling: head to head

Satisfied 49%

Dissatisfied 43%

Don't know 8%


Satisfied 37%

Dissatisfied 44%

Don't know 18%

Net

satisfaction

+6

Net

satisfaction

-7

Alex Salmond Alistair Darling

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How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his job as First Minister/Leader of the Better Together Campaign?

Salmond versus Darling: satisfaction among voters

83%

23%

56%

18%

54%

24%

Yes voters No voters Undecided voters

% Satisfied

Salmond Darling


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Q. How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his/her job as First Minister/Prime Minister/Leader of Scottish

Labour/the Scottish Liberal Democrats/the Scottish Conservatives?

Satisfaction with party leaders

49% 43%

8%

Alex Salmond

Net

rating

+6

34%

17%

50%

Patrick Harvie

40%

34%

27%

Johann Lamont

23%

34%

43%

Willie Rennie

34%

36%

31%

Ruth Davidson

30%

64%

6%

David Cameron

Net

rating

+17

Net

rating

+6

Net

rating

-11

Net

rating

-2

Net

rating

-34

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How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his/her job as First Minister//Prime Minister/Leader of Scottish


Satisfaction with party leaders trend

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Apr-11 Aug-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Jun-12 Oct-12 Feb-13 May-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Feb-14 May-14 Aug-14

Alex Salmond Johann Lamont Ruth Davidson Willie Rennie Patrick Harvie David Cameron


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How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his/her job as First Minister//Prime Minister/Leader of Scottish


Net Satisfaction with party leaders trend

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

Aug-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Jun-12 Oct-12 Feb-13 May-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Feb-14 May-14 Aug-14

Alex Salmond Johann Lamont Ruth Davidson Willie Rennie Patrick Harvie David Cameron


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Q. How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his/her job as Deputy First Minister/Leader of the Better

Together Campaign?

18%

44%

37%

16%

36%

48%

Don't know

Dissatisfied

Satisfied

Satisfaction with campaign leaders

15%

31%

54%

11%

14%

76%

Don't know

Dissatisfied

Satisfied

All Own campaign supporters

Nicola Sturgeon Alistair Darling

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Technical details

• This presents the topline results from Scotland

• Results are based on a survey of 1,006 respondents

(adults aged 16+) conducted by telephone

• Fieldwork dates: 28th July – 3rd August 2014

• Data are weight by: age, sex and working status using

census data; tenure using SHS data; and public-private

sector employment using Scottish Government Quarterly

Public Sector Employment series data

• Where results do not sum to 100%, this may be due to

computer rounding, multiple responses, or the exclusion of

“don’t know” categories

• Results are based on all respondents (1,006) unless

otherwise stated

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Thank you [email protected] | 0131 240 3269

[email protected] | 0131 240 3264 @IpsosMORIScot

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