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Poll results in ireland, April 2010
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Voting IntentionTracking Poll
April 2010
Methodology and Weighting
RED C interviewed a random sample of 1003 adults aged 18+ by telephone between the 26th & 28th April 2010.
A random digit dial (RDD) method is used to ensure a random selection process of households to be included – this also ensures that ex-directory households are covered.
Half of the sample are interviewed using an RDD landline sample, with the other half conducted using an RDD mobile phone sample, this ensures 98% coverage of the population reaching landline only households, mobile only households and those with both a landline and a mobile.
Interviews were conducted across the country and the results weighted to the profile of all adults. A further past vote weighting is included that takes the current recall for how people voted at the last election, compares this to the actual results, and weights the data to halfway between the two.
Finally vote intention results are based on those who will actually go and vote, using a 10 point scale, where 1 is not at all likely and 10 is very likely, those rating 5 to 10 are included as being those who will actually go and vote.
SUNDAY BUSINESS POST – 2nd May 2010 - Opinion Poll
Labour support soars to overtake Fianna Fail
This month’s RED C/Sunday Business Post sees a dramatic uplift in fortunes for the Labour Party, which sees its support jump by a significant 7% in just one month. The rapid gains in share mean that the Labour Party end up securing 24% of the first preference, having been apparently stuck at 17% since November last year.
This type of gain is very rare in political polling, but perhaps not so rare for the Labour party in Ireland, who are making something of a habit of sharp gains over the past year and a half. The rise in support this month also crucially means that they leapfrog Fianna Fail into second place for the first time ever recorded in a RED C poll, as Fianna Fail support falls back by 1% to leave them securing just 23% of the first preference vote.
The jump in support for Labour, who have been the third force in Irish politics for some time, strangely mirrors events seen recently during the election campaign for the Liberal Democrats in the United Kingdom, with many commentators making this comparison over the last couple of weeks. However, while the gains for the Liberal Democrats in the UK were clearly on the back of the performance of party leader Nick Clegg in the election debates, the reason for Labours gains in this poll are perhaps more difficult to decipher.
Certainly it could be the case that the change in politics in the UK may have spurred people in Ireland to also believe that a real change is required here as well. It is also true that Eamonn Gilmore and the party have not been slow to utilise the events in the UK to their advantage, encouraging the idea of a three way leader debate in Ireland and the idea that a third option is a really viable alternative for voters.
When the gains in Labour support are investigated in more detail they are seen to be across all demographic groups. However, the gains are particularly prominent among 35-54 year olds and those living in the Rest of Leinster – precisely where they also made significant gains back in February 2009. It is vital for the party that they continue to appeal to these perhaps more family orientated age groups in the longer term, as they hold the key to sustained support for the party. I
t is also apparent that the Labour conference has helped to persuade many past Fianna Fail voters, now disenfranchised with the government, that Labour is a viable alternative for their vote. Over the past few months Labour has been converting just 10% of those who voted for Fianna Fail in the last election, but in today’s poll that has risen to over 20%.
So which party loses out as a result? The answer is that several parties do lose support, but the worst loss of first preference vote is seen for Sinn Fein, whose support falls back quite heavily to just 6% among all voters. However the data does not suggest that Sinn Fein voters have simply moved to Labour, some have but others have moved elsewhere, and it is perhaps simply this fluidity among the disenfranchised electorate that is also to Labours gain. For Sinn Fein this represents a fall in support of 4%, following several consecutive months where they had seen their support gradually improve. It is difficult to explain this loss without more information, but perhaps this because the party has been seen canvassing heavily in Northern Ireland, and taken its eye off the ball here somewhat. Alternatively they may well have suffered in the eyes of voters due to renewed activity by dissident Republicans in Northern Ireland.
Fine Gael also loses some support as a result of Labour gains. The party secures 33% of the first preference vote, down 2% since last month. This leaves them well ahead of both Fianna Fail and Labour, but is certainly an indication that any further gains by Labour are likely to impact on Fine Gael as much as they do on Fianna Fail.
The Green Party are one of the few who don’t lose any support; in fact they gain support slightly, taking 6% of the first preference vote. This is up 1% on the last month, after four months when they were somewhat static at 5%. On the other hand, the Independent candidates support falls back slightly, dropping 1% to leave them securing 8% - but this is very similar to where they have been in previous months.
The big question following this very good poll for Labour, is whether the party can maintain this level of support in the months ahead, or if the results are somewhat exaggerated by the lack of focus on other parties. To give us some clues in how this may pan out, we can look back to the last time they gained rapid support in recent times.
At the end of 2008 the party gained 8% support in one month, and then fell back the following month. However the fall wasn’t as great as the gain, and the party effectively gained 5% in the medium term despite the fall back after the initial poll. Then again in early 2009 the party saw another increase of 8% in one month, which initially fell back to a 4-5% gain, and then fell back again but still provided the party with a 3% gain overall in the longer term. If we were to overlay a similar pattern to the next few months this would see the party consolidating at about 21-22% of the first preference vote in the medium term.
Should this scenario pan out, RTE may well have to re-consider its leaders debate format, along the lines suggested by Eamonn Gilmore at the party conference two weeks ago, to include three parties instead of two in the run up to the next general election.
33%
23% 24%
6% 6%8%
Fine Gael Fianna Fáil Labour Sinn Féin Green Party Independents/ Other
If there were a general election tomorrow, to which party or independent candidate would you give your first preference vote?(Base: All adults WHO WILL VOTE 18+)
23%
36%
17%
10%
5%
9%
27%
34%
17%
8%
5%
9%
27%
34%
17%
9%
5%
8%
24%
35%
17%
10%
5%
9%
23%
33%
24%
6% 6%
8%
10%
6%
42%
27%
7%
5% Fianna Fáil Fine Gael Labour Sinn Féin Green Party Independents/
Other
General election 2007
November 2009
January 2010
February 2010
March 2010
April 2010
If there were a general election tomorrow, to which party or independent candidate would you give your first preference vote?(Base: All adults WHO WILL VOTE 18+)
Dec’05
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
If there were a general election tomorrow, to which party or independent candidate would give your first preference vote?(Base: All adults 18+)
Fianna Fáil
Fine Gael
Labour
Sinn Féin
Green Party
PDs
33%
24%
23%
Independent
May’09
Mar’06
Apr’06
May’06
Jun’06
Jul’06
Sep’06
Oct’06
Nov’06
Jan’07
Feb’07
Mar’07
Apr’07
May’07
May’07
May’07
May’07
GE2007
Sep’07
Oct’07
Nov’07
Jan’08
Feb’08
Mar’08
Apr’08
May’08
Jun’08
Sep’08
8%
Oct’08
Nov’08
Jan’09
6%
Feb’09
Mar’09
Apr’09
GE2002
Feb’06
Jan’06
Nov’05
Sep’05
May’09
Sep’09
Sep’09
Oct’09
Nov’09
Jan’10
2006 2007 2008 2009
Mar’10
2010
Feb’10
Apr’10
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
If there were a general election tomorrow, to which party or independent candidate would give your first preference vote?(Base: All adults 18+)
Fianna Fáil
Fine Gael
Labour
Sinn Féin
Green Party
PDs
33%
24%
23%
Independent
GE2007
Sep’07
Oct’07
Nov’07
Jan’08
Feb’08
Mar’08
Apr’08
May’08
Jun’08
Sep’08
8%
Oct’08
Nov’08
Jan’09
6%
Feb’09
Mar’09
Apr’09
May’09
May’09
Sep’09
Sep’09
Nov’09
Oct’09
Jan’10
2008 2009
Feb’10
Mar’10
2010
Apr’10
CURRENT FIRST PREFERENCE SUPPORT
Core figures
28th Mar 2010
Excluding undecided
2007 Election Results
% % %
Fine Gael 27 33 27
Fianna Fáil 19 23 42
Labour 20 24 10
Sinn Féin 5 6 7
Green Party 5 6 5
Independents/Others
6 8 6
Undecided 18
If there were a general election tomorrow, to which party or independent candidate would you give your first preference vote?(Base: All adults WHO WILL VOTE 18+)
If there were a general election tomorrow, to which party or independent candidate would you give your first preference vote?(Base: All adults WHO WILL VOTE 18+)
