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Transformation & Transitions
Social Differences
Policy implications
Principles, perspectives … & .. Asia
Asian success: Rising Rural Wages in Asia
Vietnam
5
10
15
20
25
30
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Red River delta North East
North West North Central Coast
South Central Coast Central Highlands
South East Mekong River delta
Despite Asian success, much gloom
TheoryAgriculture: limited scope for productivity gains, few links, low & falling prices
Manufacturing = Innovation
Agglomeration economies in urban
areas
Empirical
Africa’s limited transformation
Asian examples unrepeatable??
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
Mal
i To
min
ian
Mal
i Dié
ma
Mal
i Ko
uti
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Mal
i Mac
ina
Sen
egal
Cas
aman
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Sen
egal
Mek
hé
1
Sen
egal
Nio
ro
Sen
egal
Hau
t D
elta
Sen
egal
Mek
hé
2
Sen
egal
Bas
Del
ta
Mad
agas
car…
Mad
agas
car
Ala
otr
a 1
Mad
agas
car…
Mad
agas
car
Itas
y
Mad
agas
car…
Mad
agas
car
Ala
otr
a 2
Ken
ya B
un
gom
a
Ken
ya N
yan
do
Ken
ya N
aku
ru N
ort
h
Mo
rocc
o C
hao
uia
Mo
rocc
o S
aïss
Mo
rocc
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ou
ss
Nic
arag
ua
Mu
y M
uy
Nic
arag
ua
Terr
abo
na
Nic
arag
ua
La L
iber
tad
Nic
arag
ua
El V
iejo
Nic
arag
ua
El C
uà
Mex
ico
Sie
rra
SM.
Mex
ico
Tie
rras
Baj
asGin
i Co
eff
icie
nt,
inco
me
sb
y h
ou
seh
old
Dorward et al: SOAS/Wye
Step Up: Potential FT commercial SF
Step Out: diversified RNFE
Hang In: Marginal SF
Perspective: Latin America: 12 Cs
3%9%
20%
43%
25%
Commercial Farms
Class A family farms
Class B family farms
Class C family farms
Rural landless
Consensus on basics (2)
• Bullet slide 22pt Verdana
16
Rural Public Goods
• Roads, power, irrigation, etc.
• Education, Health, Water
• Research & Extension
Debate: Failings in rural (factor)
markets: solutions?
State intervention? e.g. Fert Sub
Institutional Innovation e.g.
Contracts, Co-ops, etc.
17
Matters most for B, C smallholders & women
Social Protection for
SF on low incomesChallenge of graduation: linking from SP to Productive Investments
Priorities for development partners?
Encourage Basics: evidence strong
Fund Rural Public Goods
Market Failures: fund trials [challenge funds?] & learning
Pilot Graduation from SP