See ppt for first 4 slides or so
Chapter 1 - Entering a new worldScientists horrified by glacier
melt accelerationIn 10 years projected rise in sea levels went from
1.5 to 6 by centurys end 4X UNDERESTIMATEIce flow speed exceeds
anything the scientists imaginedAsias primary glacier is melting
faster than imaginable could disappear in decadesAsias glaciers are
Asias Agricultural Reservoir
Nature is the Timekeeper, and were out of time.shrinking forests
expanding deserts falling water tables collapsing fisheries
disappearing species rising temperaturesGreenland Ice Sheet melt
rises see 23W. Antarctic Ice Sheet melt rises 19
33 Sea level rise 6oo million refugees - twice US population
Time is up race between scientific and political tipping
pointsWill Greenland melting become irreversible?Or will we phase
out coal power plants fast enough?
There are many environmental tipping pointsWater is running out
world wideWill we stabilize population?Or watch death and wars over
water?Demographic trap Poverty begets population growth and
Population growth begets povertyCountries collapse under these
unresolved problems Failing States
Failing States Early Sign of Failing CivilizationIraq, Sudan,
Somalia, Chad, Congo, HaitiList grows Every yearCivilization fails
after how many states fail?
MASSIVE MARKET FAILURE IS DESTROYING USWorld bank Economist
Nicholas StudyMARKET FAILS TO INCORPORATE FOSSIL FUEL ECONOMIC
COSTSTRILLIONS OF DOLLARS
MASSIVE HUMAN GROWTH IN LAST CENTURYEnterprise 20 foldPopulation
4 foldWe now exceed the ability of earth to replenish resources
Indirect costs of burning fossil fuel CAN EXCEED THE DIRECT
COSTS OF COALNEGLECTING THESE COSTS UNDERVALUES THE MARKET ECONOMIC
DISTORTIONSSOUND DECISIONS CANT BE MADE MUST KNOW FULL PRICE OF
PRODUCTTHREATENING CIVILIZATION
MARKET DOES NOT INCORPORATE INDIRECT COSTS EXTERNALITIESNatures
contributionDestruction of the environmentFuture costs to Future
generations
Examples in USGas price in 2007 $3 / galONLY SHOWS PRODUCTION
PRICEHIDES HIDES HIDES FULL PRICE Environmental destructionMilitary
costsHealth costsBlood of our soldiersGlobal / Mid East animosity
to US$12 PER GALLON FUTURE COST TO OUR CHILDREN!!!MARKET SAYS IT IS
CHEEP!!!!
MUST RESTRUCTURE PAST SYSTEMSMUST INCORPORATE FULL COST TO
SOCIETY
EXAMPLE OF HIDING ENVIRONMENTAL COSTS1998Chinas Yangtze River
Valley400 peoples homeWorst flooding in history - $30 billion
costCost exceeded total value of rice harvestCHINA THEN BANNED
LOGGING THERETREES STANDING WORTH 3X TREES CUT FLOOD CONTROL
SERVICESMARKET WAS OFF BY FACTOR OF 3!!!!!!!!!
ENRON MOST WIDELY LOVED COMPANY7TH MOST VALUABLE CO IN US
2001THEN INDEPENDENT AUDITORSCo HAD LEFT CERTAIN COSTS OFF THE
BOOKENRON WAS WORTHLESS$90 STOCKS WENT TO PENNEY'S PER
SHARECOLLAPSE WAS COMPLETEIT NO LONGER EXISTS
WERE DOING WHAT ENRON DID LEAVING COSTS OFF THE BOOKSIF WE
INCORPORATE THE INDIRECT COSTS WERE HEADED TOWARD COLLAPSEWe need
CITIZEN LEADERS!!!!
THE INVISIBLE HAND OF THE MARKET IS BLIND TO EXTERNALITIESTREATS
MASSIVE SUBSIDIES TO OIL COMPANIES AS IF THEY ARE DESERVED
EARLIER CIVILIZATIONS ALSO GOT IN TROUBLEENVIRONMENTALLY INDUCED
ECONOMIC COLLAPSEIceland 600 yrs ago averted collapse by
restricting herd size to sustainable levelsSamaria BC destroyed
itself by destroying its croplandThe Mayan civilization destroyed
itself by destroying its environment trees, causing erosion,
killing food supply
Humans Extraordinary Growth this last CenturyGDP now measured in
Trillions, once in Billions2007 GDP Growth Exceeded ALL of the 1900
economyearth's natural capacities, such as its ability to supply
fresh water, forest products, and seafood, have not
increasedEconomy Exponential Growth ECLIPSES now environmental
capacity to support it.1980 WE SURPASSED EARTHS REGENERATIVE
CAPACITY!WERE NOW SURPASSING SUSTAINABLE YIELDS BY 25%
WE ARE MEETING DEMANDS BY CONSUMING OUR CHILDRENS RESOURCES
OUR EXISTENCE IS WHOLLY DEPENDED ON EARTHS NATURAL
RESOURCESClimate hospitable for agricultureHydrological processes
for waterGeological processes producing soilForests are
shrinkingGrasslands turning to desertPumping underground water
depleting available supply
WE ALL DEPEND ON PRODUCTS AND SERVICES OF EARTHS
SYSTEMS.ForestsOceansWetlands
EARTHS SERVICES INCLUDEwater purification, pollination, carbon
sequestration, flood control, soil conservation
15 of 24 major ecosystems being Degraded or Pushed Beyond
Limits40 Yr. Study of Global Eco Systems1360 scientists Fisheries
collapsing
TIPPING POINT - Were pushing the RAINFOREST TO BURNRainforests
20% cleared so farCattleSoybean Farming22% degraded by road
building and forestryDesert will result if they burnRoughly 100
BILLION TONS OF CARBON WILL BE ADDED TO THE ATMOSPHERE. STAYS THERE
FOR UP TO 800 YEARS.
Overconsumption is collapsing Global ForestsFisheriesWells,
Water supplies
Resource collapse creates refugees
China proves the EXISTING ECONOMIC MODEL IS SUICIDEChina has 4x
the population of USChina consumes more resources than the USGrain,
meat, steel1/3 more grainDouble US meat consumption3x steel
What if China catches up to US in per capita consumption?
Expected by 2030GLOBAL FORESTS GONE - 2x as much paper as produced
worldwide per day1.1 BILLION CARS world currently has 860mNeeding
roads and parking lots equal to their agricultural land area98
million barrels per day MORE THAN THE 90M BARRELS PRODUCED TODAY
THE EXPECTED PEAK.
THE WESTERN ECONOMIC MODEL IS DOOM TO US ALLFossil Fuel
BasedAuto centricThrow awayIF IT WONT WORK FOR CHINA IT WONT WORK
FOR INDIAIndia may have bigger population than ChinaWont work for 3
billion in developing countries reaching toward middle class
OVERRIDING CHALLENGE FOR OUR GENERATION BUILD AN ECONOMY BASED
ON RENEWABLE RESOURCESRenewable energyDiversified
transportationReuse and recycling of everythingWE HAVE THE
TECHNOLOGYDO WE HAVE THE WILL?
Governments collapse when Cant provide foodCant provide
securityEducationHealth careLose credibilityLose revenuesSocieties
fragmentWars ensueNations come to fear warring statesBecome hotbeds
for terrorism and drugs
Failing states GREATEST THREAT TO GLOBAL SECURITYLack
healthcareBecome sources of global diseaseNon-state governments
emergeWarlords emerge, ClansEstimated 20-47 failing
Countries[insert chart]
State Failure usually causes environmental
destructionDeforestationDesertificationSoil erosionShrinkage of
cropland and water per person
Deteriorating environmental systems and poverty reinforce each
otherDonors avoid for security reasonsState failure spills over
into the region dragging it downRwanda, Sudan
Failing states hurts ability to respond to international
needsControlling spread of infectious diseasesMaintaining raw
material flowsDisrupt local economic progress
URGENCY is needed to avoid TIPPING POINTSShrinking species
populations beyond recoveryOver-fishing
Social tipping pointsSingle issues or simultaneous multiple
threatsEconomically advanced can handle it, but not
underdevelopedAdvanced countries controlled AIDSNot the
underdeveloped countries20% or more adults in some countries
infectedUnsupportable population growthMideast and Africa78 million
new people per yearGrowth is in countries least able to support
them
Even advanced countries are getting overwhelmedFalling water
tablesExpected policy would stabilize aquifersNOT ONE COUNTRY HAS
YET DONE SOCutting carbon is obviously necessaryNOT ONE COUNTRY HAS
DONE IT YETWILL THIS BE OUR DEMISE AS SALT KILLED SAMARIA?Decline
in oil productionOnly 2 countries are planning for it!!!
These problems can lead to failure of CivilizationAnalyze the
effects of mounting stresses on global systemsFood Security is most
crucial and revealing
Farmers are failing to keep pace with population growthFalling
water tablesConverting crop land to other usesExtreme climate
eventsHeat wavesDroughtsFloodsWORLD GRAIN PRODUCTION FALLING SHORT
OF NEED IN 80% OF THE YEARS NOW2005-2007 GRAIN PRICES
TRIPLEDSURPLUS GRAIN SUPPLIES NOW PLUMMETING
US WORLDS BREAD BASKET NOW TURNING GRAIN INTO OILUP TO 30% OF
RECENT CROPS GO TO FUELDRIVING WORLD GRAIN PRICES TO UNPRECEDENTED
HIGHSUNPRECEDENTED FOOD INSECURITYSTATES FAILING
STATE FAILURE CAN BE QUICK AND UNEXPECTEDON ENVIRONMENTAL
FAILURE CAN DO ITNOW WE HAVE MULTIPLENOW STATES SO INTERCONNECTED
THAT ALL WILL RISE OF FAIL TOGETHER
Plan B shaped what may save Civilization NOT by Political
CorrectnessRequires attacking on multiple frontsEnding
povertyStabilizing populationRestoring earths natural
systemsCutting carbon 80% by 2020EfficiencyRenewable sourcesScale
and speed must be wartime speedRestructuring of the world economy
commensurate with WWII economy restructuringCars were banned for 3
years
Extraordinary challenge much hopeWe have the EXISTING
TECHNOLOGYEVERYTHING NEEDED HAS BEEN DONE SOMEWHEREAdvanced Wind
Towers can equal the energy of an oil wellJapanese refrigerators
use 12% the power of those a decade agoTodays hybrid cars 50 mpg
50% more efficient
Examples of what is possibleDenmark 20% of energy from wind
headed to 60%60m Europeans get electricity from wind40m Chinese
getting hot water from rooftop heatersIceland 90% of homes
geothermal heatedIndia using dairy based on crop residue 4x milk
production worlds biggest milk producerChina fish farming using
advanced carp first country with farm fish exceeding natural 1/3 of
worlds oceanic fish catch
Examples of what is possibleSouth Korea Reforested to 60% from
near zeroUS in 20 years reduced soil erosion in vulnerable areas
40%US farmers increased crop yields 20% in 20 yearsCuritiba, Brazil
since 1974 Population tripled while traffic 30% reductionAmsterdam
advanced urban transport 30% by bikesParis transportation
diversification headed toward 40% reduction in trafficLondon uses
taxes for traffic reduction
New technologies available permitting new outcomesPlug-in
Hybrids plus Wind Farms DRIVING ON WIND at $1 a gallon
THE TIME IS NOW BEFORE ECONOMIC COLLAPSE
NEXT 5 CHAPTERS THE ENVIRONMENTAL, DEMOGRAPHIC AND ECONOMIC
CHALLENGESTHEN 7 CHAPTERS ROADMAP OF WHERE WE NEED TO GO AND HOW TO
GET THEREWORLDS IN TROUBLE BECAUSE OF WHAT WEVE PUT IN MOTION
PROMISING TRENDS OF THE MID 2000S HAVE EVAPORATED
Ban the bulb if global could reduce the equivalent of 700 coal
fired power plants
IF WE WANT WE CAN CREATE A NEW ECONOMYWe could breathe clean
airCities less noisy, polluted, congested, more civilizedExpanding
forestsFalling carbon emission
Chapter 2 Deteriorating Food and Oil Security
20th Century was the oil century1900 the world produced 150
million barrels of oil28billin barrels 180 fold increaseCheap oil
enabled food production explosion along with population,
urbanization, mobility1900 30% in cities today 50%Grain harvest
increased 400% in 20th centMobility exploded cars, trains,
planesToday an oil based civilization
PRODUCTION SOON FALLING1981 was the peak of new discoveries2006
world pumped 38 billion barrels but discovered only 9 billion
newWorld reserves in free-fallHalf of world reserves used up 1
trillion leftFIRST TRILLION WAS EASY OILWHATS LEFT IS TOUGH
OILDEEPOFF SHOREUNFRIENDLY COUNTRIESPEAK OIL IS AT HANDTHIS IS A
TOTALLY DIFFERENT WORLDZERO SUM GAME OVER OIL
Food and oil are hugely linked1950-72 bushel of wheat could be
traded for barrel of oil - $2In late 2007 took 8 bushels of wheat
to buy 1 barrel of oilGrain now pegged to Oil over $60 / barrel is
highly productive2006 16% of crop went to fuel2008 could be
30%WORLD PRICE OF GRAIN MOVING TO OIL PRICE EQUIVALENTFood will
shift into fuel economy
PEAK OIL IS UPON USNew production follows new discovery by about
40 years[insert data chart]1970 US produced 9.6 million bpd2006 5.1
million bpd47% declineVenezuela peakedUK Peaked 2000
Pre-peakers Russia WORLDS LARGEST PRODUCEREclipsed Saudi Arabia
2006Canada deadly tar
sandsKazakhstanAlgeriaAngolaBrazilNigeriaUAELibya
Approaching production declineMexicoUS 2nd largest suppliers2004
3.4 million barrels per dayKey field in steep declineCould be
importer by 21015ChinaSaudi ArabiaLargest field is 50 years old2007
production of 8.9 million barrels down 6% Can pre-peak countries
make up the difference for the rest?
Major oil companiesHave not been any dramatic increases in
exploration and developmentSeems that 95% of worlds oil already
discoveredWhole world has been seismically searchedExtremely
unlikely new fields to be foundWorld demand increases annually 2m
bpdOld fields decline annually 4m bpdNeeds a whole new Saudi Arabia
every few years NOT SUSTAINABLEIF THE OIL COS HAD GOOD PROSPECTS
THEYD BE DEVELOPING THEMWORLD PRODUCTION OF 85M BPD DECLINED IN
2007Of the top 20 fields ever discovered 18 discovered between 1917
and 1970sNONE HAS COME SINCE THE 1970S
THE AGE OF DIRTY, DANGEROUS, COSTLY OIL?We can expect to drop to
67 million bpd by 2020 a 21% dropOil supply per person drop of 32%
in just 14 yearsThe 5% of conventional oil leftArctic as it
meltsAlaskaDeep deep deepTAR SANDS AND OIL SHALE and carrageen
Alberta 1.1 trillion barrelsVenezuela .4 trillion barrelsRockies
oil shale carrageenSEVERAL BARRELS OF WATER FOR EACH BARREL OF
OILALBERTA TAR SANDS 7% US OIL NEEDS 1.4 MILLION BPD
TAR SANDS ARE OUR DEATHHighly carbon intensive production
extensive use of natural gas2 tons of sand for 1 barrel of oilNet
energy yield is low 2 out of each three barrels for just production
3X DIRTIERMASSIVE LAND DESTRUCTION
WHEN PRODUCING COMPANIES AND COUNTRIES FACE THE FACT OF
REDUCTION THEYLL RATIONPRICES WILL DRIVE UP
EFFECT ON FOOD SUPPLY / COST OF FOOD
AGRICULTURE MASSIVELY OIL DEPENDENTTractorsIrrigation
pumpsFertilizerPhosphate and potash miningDeveloping countries
moving from draft animals to tractorsFertilizer uses 20% of farm
energy useUrbanization necessitates fertilizer replace human
wasteWorld food shipments send nutrients elsewherenutrients:
nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium
Irrigation manor energy user INCREASING as water tables dropUS
19% of farm energy useIndia water tables falling. 50% of ALL
electricity for pumping water from wells!!!!!No-till farming is
helping
Agriculture accounts for 1/5th of energy in us food
systemTransportprocessing, packaging, marketing, and kitchen
preparation
US food economy uses as much energy as entire UK economy12% for
transportation from farm to consumerAir transport of food fruit,
etc has exploded16% canning, freezing, drying
