Prospective scenarios about city in 2030

Mathieu Baisez – Research & Innovation Division

Ecocity World Summit 2013

Cities in 2030: a changing and booming market

2

R&I of GDFSUEZ decided to carry out a prospective study about cities in 2030

in order to build contrasted and consistent scenarios

Vegetal City - Luc Schuiten

ZAC de Bonne – Grenoble / France Dongtan - China

Bus district in Mentougou - China

A methodology thought to build

4 consistent and contrasted scenarios

3

• Relying on a tried and tested scientific methodology (prospective

methodology of CNAM – Michel Godet)

• Structured on critical

cities evolutions in order

to build consistent cities

scenarios

• Based on information and implication of various Group

representatives (Energy, Energy Services, Environmental Services)

City with strong

political autonomy

City with weak

political autonomy

“Environmental”

focus

“Economic”

focus

SELF CITY - 1

PLANET CITY - 2

3 - CASTLE CITY

4 - PATCHWORK CITY

Self city

Dwellings

Shops and offices

Industries

Agriculture

A participatory and autonomous city with a

committed society

Sustainable development and relocation of activities

A city with several mixed villages

The advent of the decentralised renewable and

shared system

Services with strong territorial roots, requiring an integrated, shared system and a global environmental

approach

A territoriality that works in favour of town planners and

developers

Planet city

Dwellings

Shops and offices

Industries

Agriculture

An informed and active supranational governance structure that introduces environmental regulation

An individualistic services consumer society, cocooning oriented A widely spread and well-

connected city where location no longer matters

Maintaining of centralised systems that improve their

environmental efficiency and become “smart”

An integrated, multiservice approach that depends chiefly on the ability to manage and supervise

systems

A dominating position for IT players and equipment

suppliers

Castle city

Dwellings

Shops and offices

Industries

Agriculture

An autonomous city that wants to safeguard and

develop its economic appeal A planned and densely

populated city

Cost cutting and security of supply provide the best compromise between a

centralised and a decentralised system

Standardised energy and water efficiency solutions combined with specific

management and supervision of the city

A city scenario which is not in anyone’s favour

Patchwork city

Dwellings

Shops and offices

Industries

Agriculture

A free-market city, with no autonomy or policy

An unequal and individualistic society that seeks self-sufficiency and

safety

A privatised city that is widely spread and

segregated into specialised neighbourhoods

Coexistence of systems that depend on income:

centralised and generic or decentralised and specific A diversity of services

related to citizens’ income

The privatisation of the city works in favour of players in the financing sector and the

construction and public works sector

4 stories and 4 urban forms contrasted

City with strong

political autonomy

City with weak

political autonomy

“Environmental”

focus “Economic”

focus SELF CITY - 1

PLANET CITY - 2

3 - CASTLE CITY

4 - PATCHWORK CITY

Thank you for your attention

Mathieu.baisez@gdfsuez.com

A brochure about these

2030 city scenarios is

available on the internet

http://www.gdfsuez.com/en/

news/what-will-cities-be-

like-in-2030/