School Bell SignalsIn MissouriNew Polling on

K-12 Education & School Choice

Expanded Opportunities DiscussionApril 25, 2014

Paul DiPernapaul@edchoice.org

About the Friedman Foundation

edchoice.org

• Established in 1996 by Milton & Rose Friedman• 501(c)(3) / Nonpartisan / Nonprofit• Based Indianapolis, IN• Activities and Services in 30+ states

• What do we do?

Outreach ~ Education

Research ~ Data Analysis

Advocacy ~ Marketing

Survey ProfileData Collection: Braun Research, Inc. (BRI)

Interview Dates: February 27 to March 11, 2014

Interview Method: Live Telephone | 70% landline, 30% cell phone

Interview Length: 14 minutes (average)

Sample Frame: Registered Voters

Sampling Method: Dual Frame; Probability Sampling; RDD

Population Samples: MISSOURI = 660 St. Louis Metro = 227Kansas City Metro (including oversample) = 165

Margins of Error: MISSOURI = ± 4.0 percentage points St. Louis Metro = ± 6.5 percentage pointsKansas City Metro = ± 7.6 percentage points

Response Rates: Landline (LL) = 9.7%Cell Phone = 8.3%

Weighting? Yes (Landline/Cell, Age, Race, Ethnicity, Gender, Region)

Oversampling? Yes (Kansas City Metro)

Observing the following metrics…

~ Levels

~ Margins (i.e. differences, gaps)

~ Intensities (strong positive – strong negative)

~ Min vs. Max

Topics

• Direction of K-12 education• Rating the state’s public school system• Grade local schools (public, private,

charter) • Preferred school type, and why

• Tax-credit scholarships• Interdistrict student transfers

Missouri’s K-12 Profile

Average State Rank on NAEP 28

High School Graduation Rate 83.7%

# Regular Public School Students 900,842# Charter School Students 17,868# Private School Students

93,066# Home School Students

n/a

% Regular Public School Students 89.0%% Charter School Students 1.8%% Private School Students 9.2%

# School Districts 522

# Regular Public Schools 2,451

# Charter Schools 38

# Private Schools 565

$ Revenue Per Student$11,069

$ “Total” Per Student Spending$10,963

$ “Current” Per Student Spending$9,461$ “Instructional” Per Student Spending $5,669

What do voters say about the

state of K-12 education in Missouri?

How do voters grade schools in their communities?

What type of school is first preference?

BETTER EDUCATION / QUALITY 71INDIVIDUAL ATTENTION / ONE-ON-ONE 62

ACADEMICS / CURRICULUM 59BETTER TEACHERS / TEACHERS / TEACHING 57

SOCIALIZATION / PEERS / OTHER KIDS 48CLASS SIZE / STUDENT-TEACHER RATIO 35

DIVERSITY / VARIETY 32ENVIRONMENT / CULTURE / COMMUNITY 32

SAFETY / LESS DRUGS, VIOLENCE, BULLYING 27DISCIPLINE / STRUCTURE 26

Q8. What is the most important characteristic or attribute that would cause you to choose a [INSERT SCHOOL TYPE FROM PREVIOUS QUESTION] for your child? Please use one word, or a very short phrase.

Top 10 | Specific impressions offered by respondents in the statewide sample. Numbers represent counts (n), not percentages.

What do voters say

about tax-credit scholarships?

Favor Oppose Margin Intensity% % N=

ALL RESPONDENTS 67 27 + 40 + 16 660

St. Louis Metro 64 32 + 32 + 8 227Kansas City Metro 65 29 + 36 + 23 165

School Parent 71 25 + 46 + 21 210Non-Schooler 66 29 + 37 + 13 437

COMMUNITYUrban 64 33 + 31 + 14 120Suburban 66 30 + 36 + 15 271Small Town 76 20 + 56 + 19 123Rural 63 25 + 38 + 13 136

PARTY IDDemocrat 63 32 + 31 + 8 181Republican 76 19 + 57 + 25 177Independent 64 31 + 33 + 14 194

AGE GROUP18 to 34 80 17 + 63 + 21 15135 to 54 66 28 + 38 + 18 24055 & Over 58 35 + 23 + 17 251

HOUSEHOLD INCOMEUnder $40,000 70 21 + 49 + 15 239$40,000 to $79,999 67 29 + 38 + 18 233$80,000 & Over 62 35 + 27 + 6 133

RACE/ETHNICITYBlack 70 26 + 44 + 27 49Hispanic 80 20 + 60 + 36 16White 66 28 + 38 + 12 546

What do voters say about

interdistrict student transfers?

Levels of Support

67% Tax-Credit Scholarships64% Charter Schools62% Vouchers60% ESAs60% Interdistrict Student Transfers

Margins (favor vs. oppose)

+40 Charter Schools+40 Tax-Credit Scholarships+30 Interdistrict Student Transfers+30 Vouchers+28 ESAs

Takeaways

• Missourians are negative about the quality and direction of K-12 education in the state

• Major disconnect between survey preferences and actual school enrollment patterns

• Private schools are viewed very positively

• Broad support for school choice policies

• Right now voters are most likely to support tax-credit scholarships and charter schools

Thank You

Missouri K-12 & School Choice Survey

to be publicly released on May 6

Full report and supplemental files will be availableon edchoice.org and showmeinstitute.org

Paul DiPernapaul@edchoice.org