Magellan Strategies Minnesota US Senate General Election Survey April 2014

! APRIL 1st, 2014 MEMORANDUM TO: AMERICAN ENCORE/INTERESTED PARTIES FROM: DAVID FLAHERTY RE: SURVEY SUMMARY OF LIKELY 2014 MINNESOTA VOTERS ________________________________________________________________________ Although Minnesota is considered a blue state by political observers, the 2014 political environment may not be as blue as the 2012 election cycle based on the findings of an automated and cell phone survey of 1,081 likely 2014 Minnesota voters. The survey finds Senator Al Franken being potentially vulnerable this November. He has not had to face voters in a midterm cycle, and his victory in 2008 was aided by national trends favoring Democrats, and independent candidate Dean Barkley taking 15% of the overall vote. Sen. Franken has yet to show he can win a majority of support in the state, defeating Republican Norm Coleman in 2008 by 300 votes, with 42% of the vote. The Cook Political Report’s partisan voting index (PVI) for Minnesota is D+2, only marginally more Democrat than Colorado (D+1) and Iowa (D+1) and the same as Nevada and Wisconsin by comparison. It is also important to note that in 2010 Minnesota voters elected a Republican legislature, (25 seat gain in the state house and 16 seat gain in the state senate). Although it is a long way off, political professionals and observers are sensing that the 2014 cycle is shaping up to be a strong year for Republican candidates, similar to 2010. Key Findings:

! The voter mood does not bode well for incumbents, with only 31% thinking the country is heading in the right direction and 60% feeling things are on the wrong track.

! The Republican candidate leads the Democrat candidate by 3 points, 44% to 41% on a generic United States Senate ballot test.

! Al Franken’s image rating is below 50% (41% fav/45% unfav) as well as his job approval (44% approve).

! Barack Obama has a poor job approval of 41% approve and 53% disapprove.

! Sen. Amy Klobuchar shows stronger job approval numbers than Sen. Franken with 57% approve and 32% disapprove.

! Only 40% of respondents think Al Franken deserves re-election.

Magellan Strategies Minnesota 2014 Automated and Cell Phone Survey Summary 1,081n, MoE +/- 2.98%, 3/25/14 - 3/26/14 2

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! The Senate ballot tests show Al Franken with small leads over Republican candidates Julianne Ortman, 44% to 41%, and Mike McFadden 44% to 38%. Only 35% of voters in both ballot tests definitely intend to vote for Al Franken.

! Republican candidates Julianne Ortman and Mike McFadden are not well known by voters, with only 30% and 26% respectively having an opinion of either candidate.

! 54% of respondents disapprove of the Affordable Care Act, and only 38% approve.

! Democrats have a 3 point advantage in party identification, with the survey finding 31% considering themselves Democrat, 28% Republican, 31% independent, and 9% considering themselves “something else”.

Looking at the crosstab results, there is evidence of a political environment favoring Republican candidates. Among respondents that say they are extremely interested in the November election, a 12 point enthusiasm gap is evident between Republican and Democrat voters. Among Republicans, 51% are extremely interested in the election compared to 39% of Democrats, and among independent or “something else” voters, 47% are extremely interested in the election. Among the most likely voters (those choosing 7 to 9 on interest in the November election), the generic ballot advantage for the Republican candidate grows from R+3 to R+9. Al Franken’s biggest weakness is among independent voters. Among this important voter subgroup, 49% approve of Sen. Amy Klobuchar’s job performance, but only 35% approve of Al Franken’s job performance, a 14 point difference. Finally, among independent voters, 57% believe it is time to give someone new a chance and only 31% believe Al Franken deserves re-election. Minnesota Voter Opinion of Free Speech The survey also measured voter opinion of the most valued freedoms and rights in the First Amendment. The following question was asked: “Among the following list of freedoms in the Frist Amendment of the Constitution, which one do you think is the most important? Freedom of speech, freedom of religion, freedom of the press, the right to assemble or the right to petition?” Among all respondents, in order, 50% think freedom of speech is the most important, followed by 25% for freedom of religion, 6% for freedom of the press, 4% for the right to assemble, and 3% for the right to petition.

Magellan Strategies Minnesota 2014 Automated and Cell Phone Survey Summary 1,081n, MoE +/- 2.98%, 3/25/14 - 3/26/14 2

Magellan Strategies |1685 Boxelder Street, Suite 300 | Louisville, CO 80027

MagellanStrategies.com | 303-861-8585

Survey Methodology The results were based on a statewide automated voice recorded and cell phone interview survey of 1,081 likely 2014 Minnesota general election voters. The interviews were conducted on March 25th and 26th of 2014. The individuals interviewed for the survey were selected from a Minnesota voter file and were selected proportionate to the state’s likely non-Presidential voting population in accordance with a probability sample design that gives all voters an equal chance to be included. The results were slightly weighted to reflect past gender and age demographics of the non-Presidential voting population. The survey’s margin of error is +/- 2.98% at the 95 percent confidence interval. Any questions regarding this survey should be directed to David Flaherty of Magellan Strategies at [email protected] or 303-861-8585. Survey Commissioned By: This survey was commissioned by American Encore. About Magellan Strategies Magellan Strategies is a full-service survey research firm offering quantitative, qualitative, and predictive data modeling services to Republican candidates, campaigns and conservative organizations across the country.

!!!!!Magellan Strategies Minnesota US Senate General Election Survey Topline Results Magellan Strategies are pleased to present the topline results for a 1,081n autodial and live cell phone survey of registered voters in the state of Minnesota. The interviews were conducted March 25th and 26th, 2014. This survey has a margin of error of +/- 2.98% at the 95 percent confidence interval. This survey was weighted based upon past general election demographics.

T1. Are you registered to vote? Yes ........................................................................ 100%

T2. How likely are you to vote in the November general election for the United States Senate and Congress? Extremely likely ....................................................... 82% Very likely ............................................................... 11% Somewhat likely ........................................................ 7%

Magellan ID#: MNSEN-032514 Minnesota US Senate General Election Survey Topline Results Field Dates: 3/25/14 – 3/26/14, MoE +/- 2.98%, 1,081n, CONFIDENTIAL

Magellan Strategies | 1685 Boxelder St. Suite 300 | Louisville, CO

www.MagellanStrategies.com | (303) 861-8585

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T3. How interested would you say you are in the November election for the United States Senate? On a scale of one to nine, with nine meaning you are extremely interested and one meaning you are not interested at all, press a number between one and nine that best describes your interest in the election. Press zero if you are unsure or do not have an opinion. 9- Extremely interested ............................................ 45% 8 ............................................................................. 10% 7 ............................................................................. 13% 6 ............................................................................... 7% 5 ............................................................................. 11% 4 ............................................................................... 4% 3 ............................................................................... 3% 2 ............................................................................... 1% 1- Not interested ....................................................... 6% Unsure or no opinion ................................................ 0%

T4. Generally speaking, do you think things in the country are headed in the right direction or do you feel that things are off on the wrong track? Right direction ........................................................ 31% Wrong track ............................................................ 60% Unsure or no opinion ................................................ 9%

T5. If the election for the United States Senate were being held today would you vote for the Democrat candidate or the Republican candidate? Republican candidate ............................................. 44% Democrat candidate ................................................ 41% Some other candidate ............................................... 6% Undecided ................................................................ 8% No opinion ............................................................... 1%




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T6. In general, when it comes to considering candidates for federal office like the United States Senate and Congress, are you most interested in… Economic issues like taxes, government spending, jobs, and the budget; Foreign affairs and national defense issues including terrorism and wars; Domestic issues like education, health care, and the environment; or Social and moral issues like abortion and gay marriage? Economic issues ...................................................... 57% Domestic issues ...................................................... 25% Social and moral issues ............................................. 9% Foreign affairs and national defense issues ................ 5% Some other issue ....................................................... 2% Unsure or no opinion ................................................ 2%

T7. Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Al Franken? Favorable ................................................................ 41% Unfavorable ............................................................ 45% No Opinion ............................................................ 11% Never Heard Of ........................................................ 1% Unsure ...................................................................... 2% Name ID ................................................................. 97% Hard Name ID ........................................................ 86%

T8. Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Julianne Ortman? Favorable ................................................................ 12% Unfavorable ............................................................ 18% No Opinion ............................................................ 30% Never Heard Of ...................................................... 37% Unsure ...................................................................... 3% Name ID ................................................................. 60% Hard Name ID ........................................................ 30%




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T9. Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Mike McFadden? Favorable ................................................................ 12% Unfavorable ............................................................ 14% No Opinion ............................................................ 28% Never Heard Of ...................................................... 42% Unsure ...................................................................... 4% Name ID ................................................................. 54% Hard Name ID ........................................................ 26%

T10. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing as President? Approve .................................................................. 41% Disapprove ............................................................. 53% Unsure or no opinion ................................................ 6%

T11. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Amy Klobuchar is doing as United States Senator? Approve .................................................................. 57% Disapprove ............................................................. 32% Unsure or no opinion .............................................. 11%

T12. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Al Franken is doing as United States Senator? Approve .................................................................. 44% Disapprove ............................................................. 44% Unsure or no opinion .............................................. 12%

T13. Do you think Al Franken has done a good enough job to deserve re-election or do you think it is time to give someone else a chance to do a better job? Time to give someone else a chance ....................... 50% Deserves re-election ................................................ 40% Unsure or no opinion .............................................. 10%




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T14. From what you know about him, do you consider Al Franken to be somewhat conservative, moderate, somewhat liberal, or very liberal in his political beliefs? Somewhat conservative ............................................. 4% Moderate ................................................................ 18% Somewhat liberal .................................................... 31% Very liberal ............................................................. 38% Unsure or no opinion ................................................ 9%

T15. If the election for the United States Senate were being held today for whom would you vote if the candidates were Al Franken, Democrat, and Julianne Ortman, Republican? Al Franken .............................................................. 44% Julianne Ortman ...................................................... 41% Some other candidate ............................................... 6% Definitely Franken ................................................... 35% Probably Franken ...................................................... 9% Definitely Ortman ................................................... 20% Probably Ortman .................................................... 21% Undecided ................................................................ 9%

T16. If the election for the United States Senate were being held today for whom would you vote if the candidates were Al Franken, Democrat, and Mike McFadden, Republican? Al Franken .............................................................. 44% Mike McFadden ...................................................... 38% Some other candidate ............................................... 6% Definitely Franken ................................................... 35% Probably Franken ...................................................... 9% Definitely McFadden ............................................... 18% Probably McFadden ................................................ 20% Undecided .............................................................. 12%




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T17. Do you approve or disapprove of the Affordable Care Act, the health care law passed by Barack Obama and Congress back in 2010, also known as Obamacare? Approve .................................................................. 38% Disapprove ............................................................. 54% Unsure or no opinion ................................................ 8%

T18. Among the following list of freedoms in the First Amendment of the Constitution, which one do you think is the most important? Freedom of speech, freedom of religion, freedom of the press, the right to assemble or the right to petition? Freedom of speech .................................................. 50% Freedom of religion ................................................. 25% Freedom of the press ................................................. 6% Right to assemble ...................................................... 4% Right to petition ........................................................ 3% Unsure or no opinion .............................................. 12%

T19. Thinking now about last year’s IRS scandal…As you may know, Al Franken wrote two letters to the IRS requesting a crackdown on tax exempt conservative organizations. Knowing this information, do you approve or disapprove of Al Franken’s actions? Approve .................................................................. 42% Disapprove ............................................................. 40% Unsure or no opinion .............................................. 18%

And now I have a couple of questions for statistical purposes… T20. Do you consider yourself to be very conservative, somewhat conservative, moderate, somewhat liberal or very liberal in your political beliefs? Conservative ........................................................... 46% Moderate ................................................................ 30% Liberal ..................................................................... 21% Very conservative .................................................... 18% Somewhat conservative ........................................... 28% Very liberal ............................................................... 6% Somewhat liberal .................................................... 15% Unsure or no opinion ................................................ 3%




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T21. Generally speaking, do you think of yourself as a Democrat, a Republican, an independent or something else? Democrat ................................................................ 31% Republican .............................................................. 28% Independent ............................................................ 31% Something else .......................................................... 9% Unsure or no opinion ................................................ 1%

T22. Are you a man or a woman? Woman ................................................................... 52% Man ........................................................................ 48%

T23. Which of the following age groups applies to you? 18-29 ........................................................................ 7% 30-44 ...................................................................... 20% 45-54 ...................................................................... 20% 55-64 ...................................................................... 23% 65 plus .................................................................... 29% Unsure or no opinion ................................................ 1%

T24. What is your marital status? Married ................................................................... 67% Widowed .................................................................. 9% Separated .................................................................. 1% Divorced ................................................................... 6% Single and have never been married ....................... 12% Unmarried living with a partner ................................ 2% Unsure or no opinion ................................................ 3%

T25. What is your race? Press 1 if you are white, press 2 if you are black or African American, press 3 if you are Hispanic or Latino, press 4 for some other racial group. White ...................................................................... 90% Black or African American ........................................ 3% Hispanic or Latino ..................................................... 1% Some other racial group ............................................ 6% Refused ..................................................................... 0%




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Survey Methodology This survey was conducted using automated telephone touchtone technology and live dialing to cell phones. The sample used for this survey was randomly drawn from a Minnesota voter file. The survey response data was weighted based upon past general election demographics. The interviews were conducted on March 25th and 26th, 2014. Three attempts were made to interview each household in the sample. This survey has a margin of error of 2.98% at the 95 percent confidence interval.

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Magellan Strategies Minnesota US Senate General Election Survey April 2014