Coalition Government in the UK[How] will it work?

27 May 2010

Akash PaunInstitute for Government

The 2010 Election: An exception to the rule?

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Coalition

Majority

Labour National GovernmentConservative

Liberal

Unionist

1890-99 1900-09 1910-19 1920-29 1930-39 1940-49 1950-59 1960-69 1970-79 1980-89 1990-99 2000-10

Minority

But the two-party system has been declining for decades

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Only a highly disproportionate electoral system preserved majority rule for so long

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• One Labour MP elected for every 33,000 votes won.• For Conservatives the figure was 35,000.• For LibDems and others, the figure was 120,000.

2010 General Election

Coalition government is rare in the UK but common elsewhere in the democratic world

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UK

Source: Woldendorp, Keman and Budge (2000), Party government in 48 democracies (1945-1998): composition, duration and personnel, p.86.

• Across the EU only 3 countries have single-party majorities in parliament: France, Malta and Greece.

• 19 of 27 EU member states are governed by coalition governments.

• Minority governments are also quite common: currently ruling Spain, Portugal, Denmark and Hungary, as well as Scotland, New Zealand and Canada.

Challenges and tradeoffs facing coalition governments

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Are coalitions less stable?

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Source: Woldendorp, Keman and Budge (2000), Party government in 48 democracies (1945-1998): composition, duration and personnel, p.86.

Why do coalitions fail?

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Cause of breakdown Example

Scandal In 1994 the Irish Labour Party withdrew from coalition with Fianna Fail after financial scandals involving the larger FF. A new coalition with formed without an election between Labour and Fine Gael.

External crisis The Icelandic coalition fell in 2009 in the midst of the country’s financial crisis.

Dispute over economic or fiscal policy

A Swedish coalition government collapsed in 1981 after disagreement over whose taxes should be cut as the government sought to reduce the size of the state.

Irreconcilable policy dispute

The Belgian government broke up in April 2010 over failure to agree on the status of a region on the border of French and Dutch Belgium.

Breakdown in trust The Dutch government recently broke up after relations between two of coalition parties’ leaderships deteriorated.

One partner spies a better option

In 1982, the junior partner in the German coalition joined with the opposition to overthrow the government and form a new coalition.

Party split New Zealand’s government collapsed in 2002 after the junior Alliance Party disintegrated over disagreement on NZ’s involvement in the war in Afghanistan.

Challenges and tradeoffs facing coalition governments

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The formation of the UK coalition was swift in comparative terms

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Source: de Winter, L. (1995), ‘The role of parliament in government formation and resignation’, in Doring, H. (ed), Parliaments and Majority Rule in Western Europe, p.118.

Challenges and tradeoffs facing coalition governments

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All the major spending departments are led by Conservatives

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Challenges and tradeoffs facing coalition governments

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Are coalitions less effective at controlling spending?

THANK YOU

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Coalition and minority governments elsewhere have successfully managed fiscal consolidation processes

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New Zealand

(1992-95)

United Kingdom

(1993-2000)

Canada(1992-00)

Australia(1993-99)

Iceland(2003-05)

Ireland(1985-89)

Sweden(1982-87)

Finland(1993-00)

Sweden(1993-00)

Source: Wagschal & Wenzelburger (2008)IfG analysis

Single party

Multi party

Minority

Majority

Was the Conservative-LibDem coalition the only realistic option, given the election result?

• The Conservatives could have governed alone but would have been 18 seats short of a majority.

• A Labour-LibDem coalition would have been 8 seats short of a majority.

• Labour + LDs + various small parties could have formed a Rainbow Coalition, with a tiny majority.

• Conservatives + LibDems was the only two-party grouping with a majority (other than Tories + Labour).

• The alternative was a looser ‘confidence and supply’ arrangement but the party leaders opted for formal coalition.

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2010 Election Result (seats won, %)