Future of the UK and Scotland presentation, 4 June 2014, London

Welcome and introduction to the ESRC’s Future of the UK and Scotland programme of activities • PHIL SOOBEN • Director of Policy, Resources and

Communications • Economic and Social Research Council

The current state of the debate CURRENT POLITICAL STRATEGIES

• PROFESSOR CHARLIE JEFFERY • Future of the UK and Scotland Research

Co-ordinator • University of Edinburgh

Scotland’s Referendum: Political Strategies

Charlie Jeffery University of Edinburgh

www.futureukandscotland.ac.uk

http://www.futureukandscotand.ac.uk/

Political Strategies

• How the two sides are approaching the referendum – The ‘big picture’ – The economic implications

The big picture strategy

Should Scotland be an independent country? Yes/No

A binary choice superimposed on a three-way split in opinion

What should the Scottish Parliament do? 2013 data, Scottish Social Attitudes

Make all decisions for Scotland (= independence)

31%

UK Government decides on defence and foreign affairs, the Scottish Parliament everything else

32%

UK Govt decides on defence, foreign affairs, taxes and benefits, the Scottish Parliament everything else (= now)

25%

UK Govt makes all decisions for Scotland 8%

The Median Voter


31%


32%


25%

UK Govt makes all decisions for Scotland

8%

Yes: What kind of independence? • Scottish Govt White Paper Nov 2013: ‘independence

with partnership’ – Doing some things markedly differently from RUK – Doing the same things as RUK but better – Doing the same things in much the same way as now in

partnership with RUK • Keeping five of the six current unions: EU, NATO, currency,

monarchy, social union




monarchy, social union – This the key terrain in the debate





• A principled vision of independence? Yes





• A principled vision of independence? Yes • Referendum tactic? That too

The Median Voter


31%


32%


25%

UK Govt makes all decisions for Scotland 2013 data

8%

The UK Govt No: the Scotland Analysis Series

• Feb 2013 to May 2014 • 14 papers, ~ 1,500 pages

– Several on economy, plus defence, security, EU/international, borders/migration, research

– Core message: status quo better than independence

– Written in measured, scholarly manner, not dismissing ‘independence with partnership’, but ‘no guaranteed access’ …

Until • Currency Union debate February 2014 • Formal sterling currency union ruled out

– By Scotland Analysis paper – By publication of civil service advice – By Conservative, Labour, LibDem figures in one voice

“it is not going to happen”

Refusal to engage on the terrain of ‘independence with partnership’

Why? • A set of beliefs at the UK level about what

‘independence’ means (see EU debate) • A pre-negotiating stance? [The Scottish Govt

view]

• Tactics: (one part of an) electoral pincer movement

The Median Voter


31%


32%


25%


8%

The Other Part: When No Means More …

• Proposals for further-reaching devolution if Scotland votes No from pro-union parties, think tanks – Tax devolution, welfare devolution – The Conservatives yesterday completed the set

• Completing the pincer movement on the median voter

The Median Voter


31%


32%


25%


8%

The Economy • Voters’ views of the economic consequences

of independence are the best predictors of Yes or No voting

The Economy (aka the £500 question) “Say it was clear that if Scotland became an

independent country (separate from the rest of the UK) the standard of living would be higher/lower and people would on average be £500 a year better/worse off.

In these circumstances would you be in favour or

against Scotland becoming an independent country?”

Scottish Social Attitudes Survey

£500

2013 £500 Better off

No change £500 Worse off

% % %

In favour of independence 52 34 15

Neither 12 9 16 Against independence

30 40 72

Last Week … • UK Govt paper: Scots £1,400 better off in

union • Scottish Govt paper: Scots £1,000 better off

with independence • Different assumptions, each challenged

– See www.futureukandscotland/blog/financial-reflections-blog-round

• A turbo-charged version of the £500 question

http://www.futureukandscotland/blog/financial-reflections-blog-round

http://www.futureukandscotland/blog/financial-reflections-blog-round

The current state of the debate THE DEBATE AROUND DEFENCE

• DR COLIN FLEMING • ESRC Scottish Centre on Constitutional Change • University of Edinburgh •

Dr Colin Fleming

Scottish Centre on Constitutional Change

The Defence Debate

• Small States vs Large States • What Scotland Wants?

• NATO and Trident?

• Defence Relationship with the UK

The current state of the debate THE EU MEMBERSHIP DEBATE

• PROFESSOR MICHAEL KEATING • Director, Scottish Centre on Constitutional

Change • University of Edinburgh

The current state of the debate

• PROFESSOR CHARLIE JEFFERY • DR COLIN FLEMING • PROFESSOR MICHAEL KEATING

What business thinks UNCERTAINTIES FOR BUSINESS LEADERS

• PROFESSOR BRAD MACKAY • ESRC Senior Scottish Fellow in the Scotland

Analysis • University of Edinburgh Business School

THE SCOTTISH INDEPENDENCE DEBATE:

EVIDENCE FROM BUSINESS

Future of the UK and Scotland 12.30pm – 3.30pm, Wednesday 4 June 2014

Hoare Memorial Hall, Church House Conference Centre Dean's Yard, London SW1P 3NZ

Professor Brad MacKay, University of Edinburgh Business School

What risks and opportunities does the independence referendum pose for businesses in Scotland? Are businesses planning for the referendum, and if they are, how? Is the constitutional debate impacting on business decisions? What decisions might be taken in different constitutional scenarios?

The Scottish independence debate and referendum raises questions about how conditions of constitutional uncertainty are influencing business decision-making across diverse industry sectors in Scotland. Uncertainties around issues such as fiscal and monetary policies, currency, industry regulation, international agreements, or future participation in the EU have implications for businesses operating in Scotland, and influence decisions on whether to invest, re-invest, expand, withdraw, locate or relocate business activity.

THE SCOTTISH INDEPENDENCE DEBATE: EVIDENCE FROM BUSINESS

THE SAMPLE

THE SAMPLE

By Sector No. %

Financial Services (life insurance, retail, wealth management) 20 33

Energy (incl. Hydro and Oil and Gas companies) 12 20

Electronics/Technology 9 15

Life Science 7 12

Engineering/Industrial Manufacturing 12 20

Total 60 100

Other (Food and Drink) 4

COMPANY PROFILE

36

By Size No. %

Large 32 53

Medium (2XS/M) 28 47

Total 60 100

Primary Trade/Customers

No. %

Scotland 6 10

rUK 16 27

Global 38 63

Total 60 100

Ownership Structure

No. %

PLC 28 47

Private 18 30

Partnership 8 13

Trade Body 6 10

Total 60 100

Ownership No. %

Scotland 33 55

rUK 12 20

Abroad 15 25

Total 60 100

THE SCOTTISH ECONOMY

Source: McPhee, D. 2013. Business in Scotland. Scottish Government, http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/Statistics/Browse/Business/Corporate

http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/Statistics/Browse/Business/Corporate

ARE THERE RISKS?

RISKS

Industry Financial Services

Life Sciences

Electronics/ Technology

Engineering/ Ind. Manuf.

Energy (incl. oil and gas)

Key Risks

Change in Currency 14 2 5 5 5

Regulatory Changes 15 3 1 1 5

Personal Taxes 10 1 2 2 4

Corporate Tax 8 -- 2 4 5

EU 8 -- 3 4 5

Recruitment/Retention 7 1 2 1 3

Compet./Client. Reloc. 5 -- -- 5 --

Reputation 5 1 3 3 --

Investment/financing -- 4 3 4 2 Pension Costs 3 -- -- 2 --

No vote. In-out ref. etc. 1 -- 1 2 1

Cross-border Collabor. -- 2 -- -- --

Licencing/Labour Laws -- -- 1 4 2

IP -- 1 1 -- 2

RISKS

“It’s perceived risk around stability. And I guess there’s a number of subsets of that, so one of them is fiscal…issues around currency… concerns around who the regulators will be, where they’ll be based, what the influence of Europe may or may not be on that… EU safety regulation… there’s questions about Scotland’s EU membership, our infrastructure will cross boundaries … So there’s a whole host of issues but they all really come down to this question of stability or uncertainty around what these things might look like.” L, PLC, rUK, Global

40

“I think the simple answer to that is no. Because sometimes I think the people who are raising the uncertainty issues, I’m not sure they get out enough, you know…we’re all in the EU transacting cross-border… we’re dealing with a multitude of currencies, different nationalities. So for the life of me, if Scotland chooses independence, I don’t see necessarily why that is going to overcomplicate things. I just can’t see it.” (ET, M, Priv., Global)

Indicative View Minority View

WHAT ABOUT OPPORTUNITIES?


Life Sciences




Key Opportunities Products/Services 4 2 -- 1 1

Income tax decreases 6 -- -- 2 --

Corp tax decreases 2 -- -- 2 2

Access to government -- 1 1 1 1

Liberal Immigration 2 2 1 2 1

R&D Rebates -- -- 1 -- --

Redesign Regulations -- 1 1 -- 3

Scottish Brand/Pride 1 -- 1 1 --

Made in Scotland prov. -- -- -- 1 2

Gov. funding/subsidy -- 4 -- 2 2

Connections -- 2 1 1 --

Skills training -- -- -- 1 1

Influence EU Directly -- -- -- 1 1 Change model of independence 2 -- -- -- 1

OPPORTUNITIES

OPPORTUNITIES

“[Reducing] Import/export legislation. Taxation associated with cross border trade. Regulation of the business in Scotland… Change. And risk, and fear, and all these other things, plus opportunity, catalyse action in a way that doesn’t happen if it’s just the status quo... I think there would be a sense of immediacy in terms of what one could do that would really affect prosperity, in a way that’s maybe different in a larger country.” (EM, M. Priv., SB, FO, Global)

“I think if Scotland went Independent, it would make the most of it, and it would rise to the challenge, and everybody would do the best they could… But I think certainly initially in the short term, it would be a net loss and wouldn’t bring any benefits in the short term at all, other than to perhaps generate a bit more national pride and the will to overcome the difficulties. But it’s not just about Scotland; it’s about Scotland’s place in the larger world...” (EM, M. Priv., SB)

Indicative view … Minority view…

AND CONTINGENCY PLANNING?


Life Sciences




Contingency Planning Discussions 16 1 2 2 5

Monitoring risks 4 1 2 1 1

Analysis/tactical plans 12 -- -- 4 4 Investing in/existing option to restructure 3 -- 3 1 2 Rely on business continuity plans 3 1 2 -- --

Deferring investment -- 1 -- 1 --

CONTINGENCY PLANNING

* These numbers are fluid and, data suggests, largely reflect the time interviews were conducted and previous stability in the polls. A narrowing of the polls is likely to result in more wide-spread contingency planning, as has the publication of annual reports in recent weeks.

CONTINGENCY PLANNING

“None at all, as I say, I can only see positives if Scotland were to gain its independence. And I think a lot of the debate up here around issues going across the border are just overheated nonsense frankly.” (ET, Priv., M, Global) “[Contingency planning] is bluster. If there’s a yes vote you don’t know what the environment will be.” (EM, L., Priv., Global). “None whatsoever.” (ET, M., Priv., Global)

On the other hand … On the one hand … “Very informal. There has been no contingency plan, though I’m being asked more and more, what would you do if Scotland were to go independent… we could be based anywhere.” (FS, M. Priv., EU). “You know, I can’t afford to move the business, nor would I want to … but if there are problems by way of labour migration or customers not wanting to necessarily trade as easily, or suddenly I’m a Scottish supplier and not a UK supplier, then I’m building a supply chain, a near-shore supply chain as a contingency.” (EM, L., PLC, rUK).

WHAT CONCLUSIONS CAN WE DRAW FROM THE

SAMPLE?

DRAWING CONCLUSIONS FROM THE SAMPLE …

Uncertainty poses a challenge for business leaders; The risks expressed by business leaders are highly specific and directly concern business activity; The opportunities are less specific and tend to relate to the politics of the debate; Business leaders of medium-sized, private companies exporting globally are the most likely to emphasise the opportunities presented by the possibility of Scottish independence; PLC companies headquartered in Scotland appear most affected;

DRAWING CONCLUSIONS FROM THE SAMPLE…

Companies whose trade is mainly in the rUK (typically 90%, with 10% in Scotland) appear far more affected than companies whose trade is mainly in Scotland or is global; Medium sized, privately owned companies appear more willing to absorb downside risk than PLCs; Medium sized, foreign-owned companies trading predominantly in a global market indicate they are less affected by the constitutional debate than PLCs trading primarily in the rUK; About 10% of companies indicate they have contingency plans to restructure their businesses to migrate economic activity out of Scotland.

SUMMARY

“But this isn’t a complex or complicated debate for us. It’s really very straightforward. We have 3 categories of stakeholder whose interest we need to bear in mind: our customers, our shareholders, and our employees. And we’re a PLC … so our shareholders’ interests are obviously of paramount importance. So it’s, does the economic environment in which we operate, does it support the continued sustainability of the business and the future prosperity of those three groups. And if it doesn’t, what do we do about it. It’s not a political debate for us. It isn’t complicated. But it’s trying to take the politics out of it that’s the difficult thing. If you take any of those three stakeholder groups, employees for example, it’s very difficult to, in their minds, to differentiate between the political statement and the statement protecting stakeholders’ interests. So it’s quite difficult….But in terms of understanding what the right thing to do is, that’s not difficult at all. That’s not difficult. We’ve got to protect the interests of those three groups.” (PLC., L., rUK)

FIRM BEHAVIOUR?

Business behaviour will be driven by protecting: Customers Ability to sell products/services (location of customer base,

regulations, reputation); Ability to access markets (ie. MOD, EU, rUK, trade agreements).

Employees Ability to attract high value, skilled labour (ie. quality of life); Ability to maintain high value, skilled labour (ie. personal taxes).

Shareholders Ability to create value (ie. perception, profitability); Value destruction (ie. through increasing costs/complexity).

Environment/Government Support Trading environment competitiveness/Government support

THE SCENARIO MATRIX

INDEPENDENCE HEAVY

(HIGH TRANSITION COSTS)

DEVO MINOR

INDEPENDENCE LITE

(MODEST TRANSITION COSTS)

DEVO PLUS

Behaviours Conflict Partnership

Referendum Vote

Yes

No

THE SCOTTISH PRIVATE SECTOR IN THE TRANSITION?

Source: McPhee, D. 2013. Business in Scotland. Scottish Government, http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/Statistics/Browse/Business/Corporate

http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/Statistics/Browse/Business/Corporate

@UKScotland #indyrefbusiness futureukandscotland.ac.uk

What business thinks SURVEY EVIDENCE ON BUSINESS AND INDIVIDUAL ATTITUDES TO CONSTITUTIONAL CHANGE • PROFESSOR DAVID BELL • ESRC Senior Scottish Fellow and part of the ESRC

Scottish Centre on Constitutional Change • University of Stirling •

The Independence Debate: Views from Business

PROFESSOR DAVID BELL DIVISION OF ECONOMICS STIRLING MANAGEMENT SCHOOL UNIVERSITY OF STIRLING

Business Attitudes to the Independence Debate

• Economy is vital to the referendum outcome

• University of Stirling has carried out two surveys of business opinion

• Key issues for businesses – Taxation – Currency – Regulation – Relationship with EU

How important is the following factor in deciding how you are going to vote …

05

101520253035404550

Perc

ent

How the Scottish economy will fare

YouGov Poll for University of Stirling taken Dec 2013 n = 2037

Exploring business attitudes: surveys of Scottish Chambers of Commerce members in June 2013 and Feb 2014

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

0 1-9 10-49 50-250 250+

Num

ber o

f Com

pani

es in

Sam

ple

Number of Employees

Jun 2013Feb 2014

broadly the same size distribution ….

Where does your company mainly trade?

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

MainlyScotland

Mainly rUK MainlyEurope

Mainly RoW

Num

ber o

f Com

pani

es

Jun 2013Feb 2014

Most focussed on Scottish market …

Share of firms viewing each issue as ‘important’ or ‘very important’ in relation to independence

Growing concerns in the business community …

Main concerns for firms by main trading area ….

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Income TaxRates

Corporationtax

BusinessRegulation

Currency Migration

Perc

ent o

f firm

s vi

ewin

g is

sue

as

'impo

rtan

t' or

'ext

rem

ely

impo

rtan

t'

Mainly ScotlandMainly rUKMainly EuropeMainly RoW

Opportunities with independence …

shar

e of

firm

s

Source: Second Survey - Feb 2014 Scottish Government

Risks with independence …

shar

e of

firm

s

Source: Second Survey - Feb 2014

More firms take the view that there are ‘No opportunities’ rather than ‘No risks’

Risks with independence by main trading area …

38%

27%

8% 8% 9% 10%

39%

15%

7% 4%

23%

11%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

Uncertainty/time it takes to

transfer toindependence

Less access /business linkswith the rUK

Lessidentification

with the'UK/British

brand'

Contraction ofthe firm

No risks Other risk

Perc

ent o

f firm

s

Mainly rUKOther

Source: Second Survey - Feb 2014

Opportunities – business views – ‘More Scottish appropriate policies which will lead to a closer

identification with a Scottish brand which I think will have greater traction with a global market.‘

– ‘Lower taxation & economic incentives. International inward investment.’

– ‘Although we might be hammered by differential exchange rates on our importation of ingredients and raw materials - mostly sourced outside Scotland, we might also benefit if a new Scottish currency is created and the value sinks against our major trading currency partners. This could improve competiveness?’

Risks – business views – ‘Higher taxation, greater investment risk.’

– ‘Antagonisms currently being generated that seems to be sending the

wrong messages to the other UK members.’

– ‘The obvious risk is that the Scotland will be unable to meet its debts when they fall due as the proposals from Salmond are lacking in any business credibility’

– ‘If there is a yes vote overseas students will be uncertain where and how they can apply for a Scottish Visa so they will study in another country’

Evidence of negative effects on trade – “the border effect” • Border effect - trade is much higher within countries than across national

boundaries. Current evidence suggests high levels of trade “friction” between Scotland and Rest of World (excluding Rest of UK) but very low level of friction between Scotland and ruK

• Estimated effect of borders ~ 5 per cent of GDP

Source: http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/archives/41434

Final thoughts …

• Large scale surveys suggest that businesses believe that risks associated with independence outweigh opportunities

• Businesses strongly support the retention of a monetary union with rUK. In

their view, other currency options will have a negative or very negative impact on their businesses.

• Independence is not the only risk/opportunity faced by Scottish businesses. Leaving the EU, whether as part of the UK, or as an independent country is viewed negatively by the majority of Scottish businesses.

• [Source: Bell, D. and McGoldrick, M. (2014) ‘Business attitudes to Constitutional Change’

Accessed at: http://www.futureukandscotland.ac.uk/papers/business-attitudes-constitutional-change ]

http://www.futureukandscotland.ac.uk/papers/business-attitudes-constitutional-change








What business thinks

• PROFESSOR BRAD MACKAY • PROFESSOR DAVID BELL

Scottish independence: what the public thinks PUBLIC ATTITUDES AND SCOTLAND'S INDEPENDENCE REFERENDUM • PROFESSOR JOHN CURTICE • ESRC Senior Scotland Fellow • NatCen/ScotCen Social Research • Strathclyde University

Public Attitudes and the Referendum

John Curtice whatscotlandthinks.org

@whatscotsthink

Two Questions

• Who is ahead? • What matters most to voters?

The Referendum Race

38 39 39 41 43 43

62 61 61 59 57 57

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Feb-May 13 July-Sept.13

Oct-Dec. 13 Jan-midFeb. 14

Mid Feb-Mar 14

Apr - May14

YesNo

Based on 9 polls conducted Feb-May 13; 11 July-Oct 13; 8 Oct-Dec. 1;, 7 Jan-mid Feb 14; 12 mid-Feb-Mar 14; 11 Apr-May 14. Don’t Knows excluded

House Differences

45 45 44 41 40

38

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Panelbase ICM Survation TNS BMRB YouGov (Ipsos MORI)

% Y

es

Based on all polls since Jan. Don’t Knows excluded

Partly A Question of Identity

67

46

16 9 7

18

39

71 81

87

0102030405060708090

100

Sc not Br More Sc thanBr

Equal More Br thanSc

Br not Sc

YesNo

Source: Ipsos MORI May 14. Don’t Knows included in denominator

But Identity Largely Unchanging (and Dual)

24 23 24 23 22 24

30 27 28 26 25 24

33 33 33 34 33 34

4 5 5 7 6 6 7 9 8 8 9 9

0102030405060708090

100

Feb May Sept Dec Feb May

Sc not Br More Sc than Br Equal More Br than Sc Br not Sc

Source: Ipsos MORI

Economy Matters More

87

2

62

15

0102030405060708090

100

Better Worse

% Yes

EconomyEquality

Source: ICM Research May 2014. Don’t Knows included in denominator

And Tracks Ref VI Better

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

Sept Jan Feb Mar Apr May

No Lead Net Economy Net Equality

Source: ICM Research. Don’t Knows included in denominators

Summary

• The No lead narrowed in the winter – but has remained stable (at the lower level) in the spring. Still differences between polls.

• People’s sense of national identity provides a starting point, but is far from being a sole determinant

• Thus the importance of the debate about the economy (but less so equality). Yes progress in this debate helps explain the smaller No lead

Scottish independence: what the public thinks THE ECONOMIC DIMENSION IN PUBLIC OPINION • PROFESSOR LIAM DELANEY • ESRC Scottish Centre on Constitutional Change • Stirling University

Citizen Preferences for Constitutional Change in Scotland

David Bell, Liam Delaney and Michael McGoldrick

Stirling Management School University of Stirling

Overview • Scottish Independence Referendum • Behavioural Economics • Processing of Risk particularly Economic Risk • Risk Perceptions • Risk Aversion • Future Work

• Designed by Research Team • Administered by Yougov in December 2013 • 2037 Respondents • Follow-up from Scottish Election Survey • Wide range of demographic and other questions • Simple measure of risk aversion validated in recent papers • Validated Measures of future orientation

Survey

Likelihood of Voting

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Perc

enta

ge o

f eac

h se

t of v

oter

s

Certainty of voting 0 - lowest 10- highest

Certainty of voting

Yes to independence No to independence

Constitutional Options

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Scotland in the UKwith no increase in

powers

Scotland in the UKwith increased tax

powers

Scotlandindependent,

pound

Scotlandindependent, own

currency

Scotlandindependent, euro

None of the above Don't know

Yes to independence No to independence Do not Know

Attitudes and Voting

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Scottish, not British More Scottish than British Equally Scottish and More British than Scottish British, not Scottish

Yes to independence No to independence Don't know

Temporal Attitudes

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

20%

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Are you generally an impatient person, or someone who always shows patience?

Yes

No

Risk Attitudes and Voting

3% 2% 4%

5% 7%

17% 16%

20%

16%

3%

8% 6%

4% 5%

8% 8%

21%

18% 17%

9%

1% 3%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Willingness to take a risk

Yes No

Risk Attitudes and Voting

Factors in Voting Intention

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Importance of Scotland's National debt


Factors in Voting Intention

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Importance of pension entitlements to voters


Economic Voting

70%

4% 5%

3% 3% 3% 4%

8%

63%

1% 2% 4% 6%

8% 10%

8%

27%

3% 5%

7% 10%

7% 4%

39%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

No amount wouldmake

Less than 500per year

500 to 1,000 1,001 to 2,000 2,001 to 5,000 5,000 to 10,000 More than 10,000 Don't know

Economic Voting

17%

24%

13% 14% 14%

18%

3%

7%

12%

20%

26%

32%

7%

15%

20%

28%

20%

11%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

Less than 500 peryear

500 to 1,000 1,001 to 2,000 2,001 to 5,000 5,000 to 10,000 More than 10,000

Amount of income to sway the changeable minds

Yes to independence No to independence D0 not know

• Higher risk willingness substantially increases support for Independence

• Females less supportive of Independence • Those born in Scotland more supportive • Older and higher income less supportive • Some of gender effect explained by risk willingness

Statistical Modelling

• Salience • Priming of risk • Framing of risk • Risk and Ambiguity • Risk and Benefit “Overload” • Endowment Effects

Further Questions

Scottish independence: what the public thinks

• PROFESSOR JOHN CURTICE • PROFESSOR LIAM DELANEY

Scotland and the Rest of the UK BRITISH ELECTION STUDY: FIRST FINDINGS ON CONSTITUTIONAL ISSUES IN SCOTLAND, WALES, ENGLAND • PROFESSOR JANE GREEN • Institute for Social Change • Manchester University

Constitutional issues in Scotland, Wales and England

Professor Jane Green, University of Manchester

BES2015 data collection - wave 1

• 20,881 person online sample fielded by YouGov • 4,139 respondents in Scotland • 2,256 respondents in Wales • Fieldwork: 20 February – 9 March 2014

• Same respondents surveyed again end May, after

September 2014, and then 2015 onwards • 5 minute module to Scottish respondents • Large number of items on Scottish independence

Scottish constitutional preference Qs

• If Scotland votes to remain part of the United Kingdom, *should* the Scottish Parliament have more powers than it does at present, fewer powers, or should the Parliament's powers stay about the same as they are now.

• And if Scotland votes to remain part of the United Kingdom, do you think that the powers devolved to the Scottish parliament *will* change?

Think

devolution

will

happen

anyway

Want more devolution

NO YES

Vote no

11%

Vote yes

26%

Vote no

9%

Vote yes?

41%

YES

NO

Think

devolution

will

happen

anyway


NO YES

Vote no

11%

Vote yes

26%

Vote no

9%

Vote yes?

41%

YES

NO

Distribution of four groups within the Scottish sample

Think

devolution

will

happen

anyway


NO YES

Vote no

7%

Vote yes

71%

Vote no

3%

Vote yes?

35%

YES

NO

Intention to vote ‘yes’ in referendum by group in sample

Welsh and English preferences for Scotland remaining in the Union

68

16 16

68

16 16

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Remain UK Independent Don't know

English

Welsh

Welsh constitutional preference Qs

• Which of these statements comes closest to your view? There should be no devolved government in Wales The National Assembly for Wales should have fewer powers We should leave things as they are now The National Assembly for Wales should have more powers Wales should become independent, separate from the UK

• How do you think that the powers devolved to the

National Assembly for Wales will change over the next few years?

Welsh constitutional preferences

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Many fewer powers Some fewer powers Same Some more powers Many more powers

Should

Will

Welsh constitutional preferences

0

10

20

30

40

50

60


Should

Will

English constitutional preference Qs

• Some UK laws only affect England because some policies are decided in Scotland and Wales. How do you think laws that only affect England should be made?

• By UK Parliament, with all MPs having a vote 18% • By UK Parliament, only English MPs having a vote 47% • By a new, separate parliament for England, but with

England remaining part of the UK 13% • By a new, separate parliament for England, England

becoming independent from the rest of the UK 4% • Don't know 18%

BES data playground from summer 2014

www.britishelectionstudy.com

ESRC Future of the UK and Scotland 4 June 2014

0-100 expectations that Scotland will choose independence

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

5

Scotland will definitely choose independence

Scotland will definitely choose to stay in UK

%

If expect Scotland to become independent

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70


Scotland in the Union Independent Scotland

The BES instruments

2015 General Election

Pre

N = 20,000

Post-election face-to-face probability sample

+ mailback inc. CSES module N = 3,000

Post N = 20,000

Scottish and local elections

N = 20,000

Local elections N = 15,000

Twitter data harvest

January 2014

May 2014

September 2014

May 2017

May 2016

Voter registration data matching

2010 election sample

2005 election sample

Base sample N = 20,000

European and local elections

N = 20,000

Independence referendum N = 20,000

Daily rolling thunder N = 650 per day

Scotland and the Rest of the UK WHAT KIND OF RELATIONSHIP COULD A POST-YES SCOTLAND HAVE WITH THE REST OF THE UK? • DR NICOLA MCEWEN • Associate Director, ESRC Scottish Centre on

Constitutional Change • University of Edinburgh

What kind of relationship could a post-yes Scotland have with the rest of the UK?

Dr Nicola McEwen University of Edinburgh

Associate Director ESRC Scottish Centre on Constitutional Change

Yes to what…?

What would ‘an independent country’ look like?

Scottish Government’s independence vision embedded within British Isles and EU

Independence as end of only the parliamentary union – monarchical, currency, defence, European, and social unions would remain intact

Institutional and governmental co-operation & ‘strategic partnerships’ with rUK

“with independence… Scotland and the rest of the UK would both stand on our own two feet – taking our own decisions, and working together on issues of common interest. Our relationship would be what it should always have been – a partnership of equals.”

Nicola Sturgeon MSP, Deputy First Minister

June 2013

White Paper on Scotland’s Future: a vision of cooperative governance

Shared monarchy Sterling currency union Common Travel Area/labour

market Cross-border agreements in

specialist health care services/transplant

Common research area in higher education

Strategic energy partnership, GB market, Green Investment Bank

BBC/SBC Joint venture

UK-wide National Lottery/Big Lottery Fund

Cross-border co-operation to combat serious & organised crime

Functional cross-border bodies, e.g. Office of Rail Regulation, Civil Aviation Authority

Informal partnership - as ‘equals’ and ‘allies’ - within NATO/the European Union

No pre-negotiation Benefits of union as ‘best of

both worlds’ + Hard view of independence as

separation: no currency union; EU/NATO membership in doubt Likely necessity of border posts No energy partnership/integrated

common market Defence co-operation unlikely

Hard pre-referendum stance

“…the value of the pound lies in the entire monetary system underpinning it... supported by political union, banking union and automatic transfers of public spending across the United Kingdom. A vote to leave the UK is also a vote to leave these unions and those transfers and those monetary arrangements… If Scotland walks away from the UK, it walks away from the UK pound. ”

George Osborne Chancellor of the Exchequer

Post-Yes pragmatism?

Edinburgh agreement > loser’s consent/goodwill

Desire to maintain stability Easier to maintain co-

operation than to completely dismantle union

EU as a driver promoting cross-border co-operation and integration

“we will continue to work together constructively in the light of the outcome, whatever it is, in the best interests of the people of Scotland and of the rest of the United Kingdom”

Edinburgh Agreement, 2012

Competing interests – business, regional, political, international – shape and constrain choices

UK Gen Election > political costs of (in)action Principled & practical objection to pooling sovereignty/ceding

control Resistance to imposed change on centre Concessions, where they come, will imply constraints

Limits to cooperative governance

Inadequacies of existing machinery of IGR - Joint Ministerial Committee/British-Irish Council

Annual summits/joint working groups on the UK-Irish model?

Standing institutions - e.g. North South Ministerial Council, Nordic Council of Ministers - can help to: foster mutual trust nurture common purpose/identity raise awareness get issues on national agendas

Informal bilateral networks crucial

Governing Interdependence after independence

“Our citizens, uniquely linked by geography and history, are connected today as never before... Our two economies benefit from a flow of people, goods, investment, capital and ideas on a scale that is rare even in this era of global economic integration… “We intend that this Joint Statement will be the starting point for realising the potential over the next decade of even stronger relations for current and future generations living on these islands.”

David Cameron and Enda Kenny, March 2012

Why would it be different for Scotland?

Dr Nicola McEwen, University of Edinburgh Email: [email protected] @mcewen_nicola ESRC Future of the UK and Scotland Programme website: http://www.futureukandscotland.ac.uk @UKScotland

Further info

mailto:[email protected]

http://www.futureukandscotland.ac.uk/

Scotland and the Rest of the UK • PROFESSOR JANE GREEN • DR NICOLA MCEWEN

News & Politics

Future of the UK and Scotland presentation, 4 June 2014, London