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As oportunidades e desafios da transição demográfica são o tema da apresentação divulgada por membros da SAE/PR durante o seminário “População e Desenvolvimento na Agenda do Cairo: balanço e desafios”, realizado nos dias 21 e 22 de fevereiro, em Brasília. Autores: Ricardo Paes de Barros, Diana Coutinho e Rosane Mendonça. Saiba mais: www.sae.gov.br
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Demographic Transition and Post-Transition: Opportunities
and Challenges
Ricardo Paes de Barros Diana Coutinho
Rosane Mendonça
Mpumalanga, March 2014
Brazilian demographic transition
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
rate
s p
er
tho
usa
nd
pe
rso
ns
Brazilian Population Dynamics: 1880-2060
Source: SAE/PR based on population records and projections from IBGE
Crude birth rate
Crude death rate
Net migration rate
Natural growth rate
Population growth rate
Stage I Stage II Stage III Stage IV Stage V
2014
3%
2%
1%
0%
2%
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
3,0
3,5
4,0
4,5
5,0
5,5
6,0
6,5
7,0
1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
Tota
l Fe
rtili
ty R
ate
(b
irth
s p
er
wo
me
n)
Actual and Predicted Evolution of Total Fertility Rate : Brazil, 1940-2060
40 years
1/3
6 births
2 births
2014
Source: SAE/PR based on population records and projections from IBGE
Fertility decline
Fonte: Growing old in an older Brazil : implications of population aging on growth, poverty, public finance and service delivery / Michele Gragnolati, et al. Washington D.C.: The World Bank, 2011. p. 12.
Brazil: Income and Private Consumption, 2008
Labor Income
Consumption
Economic dependency
Demographic bonus
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
po
pu
lati
on
(m
illio
n)
Evolution of the Brazilian Population by Age Groups: 1900 to 2060
Less than 15 or at least 60 years old
Between 15 and 59 years old
2014
Source: SAE/PR based on population records and projections from IBGE
Demographic bonus
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
po
pu
lati
on
(m
illio
n)
Evolution of the Brazilian Population by Age Groups: 1900 to 2060
Less than 15 or at least 60 years old
Between 15 and 59 years old
65million
2014
Source: SAE/PR based on population records and projections from IBGE
Demographic bonus
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
pe
rce
nta
ge o
f th
e p
op
ula
tio
n (
%)
Evolution of the Distribution of the Brazilian Population by Age Groups: 1900 to 2060
Between 15 and 59 years old
2014
Source: SAE/PR based on population records and projections from IBGE
Less than 15 or at least 60 years old
30 p.p.
Evolution of average schooling by birth cohort: Brazil
Born in 1980 in Brazil
Born in 1952 in Chile 28 years behind
Birth year
Ave
rage
sch
oo
ling
Human capital investment
Ensuring youth full development
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Tho
usa
nd
s U
S$ (
20
05
) p
er
wo
rke
r p
er
year
The Evolution of the Average Labor ProductivitySelected countries: 1950-2011
Japan
Korea
Argentina
Brazil
Chile
China
Source: SAE/PR based on the Penn World Tables. Labor productivity as GDP/worker (Real GDP at constant 2005 national prices).
Labor productivity
0
10.000
20.000
30.000
40.000
50.000
60.000
70.000
80.000
0 10.000 20.000 30.000 40.000 50.000 60.000 70.000 80.000
Lab
or
Pro
du
ctiv
ity
in 2
01
1
(US$
(2
00
5)
pe
r ye
ar p
er
wo
rke
r)
Labor Productivity in 1980 (US$ (2005) per year per worker)
Ratio between labor productivity in 1980 and 2011
Brazil
Korea
Source: SAE/PR based on the Penn World Tables. Labor productivity as GDP/worker (Real GDP at constant 2005 national prices).
China
Labor productivity
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75
Ex
tre
ma
po
bre
za
(%
)
Idade
Extrema pobreza por idade: Brasil, 2009
Média nacional
Fonte: Estimativas produzidas com base na Pesquisa Nacional por Amostra de Domicílios (PNAD) de 2009.
Possibilidades de melhoria
Extreme poverty by age: Brazil, 2009
Age
Extr
em
e p
ove
rty
(%)
National average
Public and intergenerational transfers
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75
Ex
tre
ma
po
bre
za
(%
)
Idade
Extrema pobreza por idade: Brasil, 2009
Média nacional
Fonte: Estimativas produzidas com base na Pesquisa Nacional por Amostra de Domicílios (PNAD) de 2009.
Excluindo transferências públicas
Incluindo transferências públicas
Possibilidades de melhoria
Extreme poverty by age: Brazil, 2009 Extreme poverty by age: Brazil, 2009
Age
Extr
em
e p
ove
rty
(%)
National average
Including public transfers
Excluding public transfers
Public and intergenerational transfers
Fonte: Growing old in an older Brazil : implications of population aging on growth, poverty, public finance and service delivery / Michele Gragnolati, et al. Washington D.C.: The World Bank, 2011. p. 12.
Ratio of net per capita public transfers (elderly to children)
Public and intergenerational transfers
Fonte: Growing old in an older Brazil : implications of population aging on growth, poverty, public finance and service delivery / Michele Gragnolati, et al. Washington D.C.: The World Bank, 2011. p. 12.
Public Transfers as a Percent of Total Consumption
Public and intergenerational transfers
Fonte: Growing old in an older Brazil : implications of population aging on growth, poverty, public finance and service delivery / Michele Gragnolati, et al. Washington D.C.: The World Bank, 2011. p. 12.
Brazil: Expenditure per person by age group, 2006
Public and intergenerational transfers
Fonte: Growing old in an older Brazil : implications of population aging on growth, poverty, public finance and service delivery / Michele Gragnolati, et al. Washington D.C.: The World Bank, 2011. p. 12.
Brazil: Income and Private Consumption, 2008
Labor Income
Consumption
Public transfers and economic independence at older ages
Public transfers and economic independence at older ages
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
(%)
Anos
Evolution of the percentage of older persons in families with per capita income below his/her personal income: Brazil, 1981-2012
Source: SAE/PR based on PNADs (IBGE) from 1981 to 2012.
At least 70 years old
At least 60 years old
Health transition
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
Life
Exp
ect
ancy
at
Bir
th (
year
s)
Actual and Predicted Evolution of Life Expectancy at Birth: Brazil, 1910-2060
2014
1/2 extra year of life per calendar year
Source: SAE/PR based on population records and projections from IBGE
40
70
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
pe
rce
nta
ge o
f th
e p
op
ula
tio
n (
%)
Evolution of the Distribution of the Brazilian Population by Age Groups: 1900 to 2060
Under 15 years old
At least 60 years old
Between 15 and 59 years old
2014
Source: SAE/PR based on population records and projections from IBGE
Less than 15 or at least 60 years old
Population aging
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
26
28
30
32
34
36
38
40
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
Dis
trib
uiç
ão d
a p
op
ula
ção
(%
)
Evolution of the percentage of old-age population: Brazil, 1990-2060
At least 60 years old
At least 70 years old
Source: SAE/PR based on population records and projections from IBGE
2014
Population aging
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
26
28
30
32
34
36
38
40
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
Dis
trib
uiç
ão d
a p
op
ula
ção
(%
)
Evolution of the percentage of old-age population: Brazil, 1990-2060
At least 60 years old
At least 70 years old
Source: SAE/PR based on population records and projections from IBGE
2014
Population aging
Population aging
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
280
300
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
pe
op
le a
ged
65
an
d m
ore
pe
r h
un
dre
d c
hild
ren
Evolution of the number of people aged 65 and above per hundred children under age 15: Brazil, 1900 to 2060
2014
Source: SAE/PR based on population records and projections from IBGE
Population aging
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
280
300
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
pe
op
le a
ged
65
an
d m
ore
pe
r h
un
dre
d c
hild
ren
Evolution of the number of people aged 65 and above per hundred children under age 15: Brazil, 1900 to 2060
2014
Source: SAE/PR based on population records and projections from IBGE
Fonte: Growing old in an older Brazil : implications of population aging on growth, poverty, public finance and service delivery / Michele Gragnolati, et al. Washington D.C.: The World Bank, 2011. p. 12.
Number of years for population 65+ to increase from 7% to 14%
Speed of the population aging
Caring for dependent old-age persons
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
(%)
Anos
Percentage of old persons living in households without any person younger than 55 years old: Brazil, 1981-2012
Fonte: SAE/PR, com base nas PNADs (IBGE) de 1981 a 2012.
At least 60 years old
At least 70 years old
Challenges to public policy for a older population
1. Increase in life expectancy need to be accompanied by reduction in morbidity and expansion of the working life cycle.
2. Exponential increase in social security costs requires Brazil to adjust social security rules to the real needs and working potential of the elderly.
3. Adjustment must be fast, since the aging of the population has been very fast and it takes a life time to adjust.
4. Inevitable increase in health expenditures.
5. Increase in demand for long-term care for dependent old persons. Defining the roles for the family and public services.
Economic development and international migration
In 1900, Brazil has reached 7.3% of the
population composed of immigrants, today it
has just 0.3%.
International Migration to Brazil
Fonte: Censos Demográficos
RegionImmigrants
(millions)
Immigrants over
65 years old
(millions)
Immigrants over
65 years of age
as a percentage
of the immigrant
population
World 214 24,7 12
Africa 19 0,8 4
Asia 61 6,3 10
Europe 70 9,7 14
North America 50 5,9 12
Latin Amerrica and
Caribbean7 0,9 13
Oceania 6 1,1 18
Brazil 0,6 0,2 36
Age structure of immigrants in Brazil and in the World
5x
Latin America Average
10x World
Average
50x
North America and Oceania Average
Fonte: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2009) e Pesquisa Nacional por Amostra de Domicílios (PNAD, 2009).
Economic development and international migration
Além da pouca mobilidade de pessoas, há pouca mobilidade de conhecimento
Quase 13 em cada 1000 residentes na Austrália estão estudando fora ou são
estrangeiros estudando no país.
No Chile, o número cai para 0,5; no Brasil, para 0,2.