Analysis of aid flows and aid effectiveness in the Central African Republic in 2007

Slide 1Mar-09 Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR

Aid to CAR in 2007, management and effectiveness


A. Aid management in CAR Overview of the aid management system and first results for 2007


Aid management improves coordination

• Public online database for humanitarian and development aid

• Donors, implementers, projects, finances, sectors, places

• Key tool for Paris Declaration follow-up

• Donors mainly responsible for data entry

• In place in more than 40 countries, common in Asia, rare in Africa

Aid management system in brief Aid management systems worldwide


Making aid work better

• Monitor PRSP, CAP, UNDAF progress

• Render humanitarian and development work more transparent

• Provide same info to everyone

• Better reflect partner contributions

• Facilitate aid coordination

• Build national capacity

Goals for aid management in CAR Website http://dad.minplan-rca.org


Number of projects documented in detail in the aid management system

Data entry progresses rapidly

Sep ‘08 Oct ‘08 Nov ‘08 Déc ‘08 Jan ‘08 Fév ‘09

12

96

176

243

276

202


Encouraging numbers

• Aid more than doubled since 2005

• Multilateral reengagement since 2006

• No bilateral reengagement in development work

• Humanitarian aid brings additional resources and new donors

External assistance (gross)

Rising aid to CAR since 2005

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

$63m

$126m

$81m

$251m $242m

$117m

DevelopmentHumanitarian

WB arrears clearance


Numbers remain relatively high

• $164m disbursed for development activities and projects (78% of total)

• Positive effects of PRSP and Round Table

• $78m disbursed for humanitarian action (32% of total)

• Humanitarian and recovery support 2,5 higher than in 2006

$242m disbursed in 2007 (gross)

Total external assistance in 2007

$80m, Projects(33%)

$74m, Budget support(31%)

$9m, Tech. cooperation(4%)

$78m, Humanitarian (32%)


Multilateral support is essential

• $335m commitments signed for specific projects and activities*

• $164m disbursed by donors*

• Multilateral institutions represent 80% of disbursements

• $155m spent by implementers (government, UN, NGOs, etc.)

Disbursements (Top 10)*

Development aid in 2007

* Including for multiyear projects and activities

EC

United Nations

IMF

France

AfDB

United States

China

World Bank

Sweden

Japan

$54.1m

$36.4m

$31.0m

$24.2m

$17.5m

$17.5m

$12.8m

$7.6m

$5.7m

$5.6m


Top four sectors represent more than 75% of expenditures in 2007

Post-conflict profile of development aid

Action related to debt

Government, peace and civil soc.

Health

Non-specific budget support

Population and reproductive health

Transport and storage

Divers social sectors

Multisector aid

Education

Forestry

$44m (30%)

$36m (23%)

$22m (14%)

$14m (9%)

$8m (5%)

$6m (4%)

$6m (4%)

$4m (3%)

$4m (3%)

$3m (2%)


Stuck in the recovery gap…

< $1m> $1m> $3m> $6m> $9m> $12m

Only 20% of direct development expenditure outside the capital Bangui


< $1m> $1m> $3m> $6m> $9m> $12m

Commitments* for specific projects started rising in 2007

Slow to get going…

* Commitments signed in 2007, including for multiyear projects and activities


Quick response to urgent needs

• $79m commitments signed for specific projects and activities*

• $78m disbursed*

• 2,5 times higher than in 2006

• Brings additional resources and donors

• $54m spent by implementers (75% by UN, 25% by NGOs)

Disbursements (Top 10)*

Humanitarian aid in 2007

United States

United Nations

France

EC

Sweden

Irland

Japan

Netherlands

Canada

Germany

$17.2m

$15.6m

$7.1m

$7.0m

$5.7m

$3.7m

$3.6m

$3.2m

$2.7m

$1.9m

* Including for multiyear projects and activities


Heavy concentration on food security

Survival was priority

Food security and agriculture

Multisector aid to IDPs / refugees

Health

Coordination and logistics

Education

Shelter and non-food items

Protection and human rights

Water and sanitation

Staff security and safety

$23m (43%)

$12m (22%)

$9m (17%)

$7m (13%)

$1m (2%)

$1m (2%)

$1m (2%)

$0.5m (1%)

$0.1m


More than 90% of expenditure outside of Bangui

< $1m> $1m> $3m> $6m> $9m> $12m

Survival was priority


Development aid slow to get going in 2008

• Aid transfers likely rose slightly to more than $260m (+10%)

• Development aid remained concentrated on Bangui: debt, peace, governance and HIV/AIDS

• More development commitments, but concrete projects (and results) still hardly visible

• Humanitarian aid remained heavily focussed on food security for 2nd

year in a row

Expenditures concentrated in Bangui

Navigating the recovery gap in 2008 (and 2009)

< $1m> $1m> $3m> $6m> $9m> $12m


B. Aid effectiveness context in CARResults of the Paris Declaration Implementation Survey 2008


OECD survey results for 2007

• Mark D (A=strong, D=weak)

• PRSP contains best-practice elements but is not operational

• Numerous elements not in place– Sector strategies– Global or sector MTEFs– Action, results, and impact matrixes

Appropriation

Priority actions for CAR

Create institutional framework

Render framework operational

Design sector strategies

Prepare MTEFs

Render PRSP operational

Country exercises effective leadership over its development policies and strategies


• Mark 2 for public financial management systems (1=very weak)

• Budget underestimates aid

• Accounting system not operational

• Procurement regulations obsolete

• Most projects not managed by the government, due to weaknesses

Alignment

Put aid management system in place

Elaborate procedures and guides for national execution

Build project management capacity

Improve public financial management systems

Improve public procurement systems

Donors base their overall support on national strategies, institutions and procedures

OECD survey results for 2007 Priority actions for CAR


• Very little programme or sector aide

• Few joint missions

• Little joint analytical work

Harmonisation

Support sector strategies

Develop joint strategies

Harmonise procedure

Reinforce capacities of agencies working in CAR

Donors’ actions are harmonized, transparent and collectively effective



• Mark D (A=strong, D=weak)

• Evaluation framework contains best-practice elements but is not operational

• Lack of reliable and regular statistics

• Low capacity of statistics institute

Managing for results

Render monitoring and evaluation framework for PRSP operational

Execute priority surveys

Build statistical capacity


Managing resources and improving decision-making for results



• Absence of mutual review mechanisms

Mutual accountability

Improve quality of dialogue between government and partners

Render PRSP coordination framework operational


Donors and partners are accountable for development results



Not all gloom…The good news for aid effectiveness since 2005

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Free and fair elections after coup in 2003 (Bozizéconfirmed)

Re-launch of humanitarian and development work with new UN team, aid flows start rising

World Bank clears debt arrears

IMF, AfDB reengage

Country signs Paris Declaration

First PRSP and first Donor Round Table

Country reaches HIPC decision point

Number of NGOs working in CAR rises from 3 to 30

First year of PRSP implementation

UN PeacebuildingCommission engages

Aid management system put in place

HIPC


C. General country contextBasic info on the Central African Republic


Landlocked in the volatile centre of Africa

CAR

Rebellion or internal conflict

ChadSudan

Cameroon

DRCCongo

Darfur

Gabon Uganda

Nigeria

Slide 25Mar-09 Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR Slide 25Mar-09 Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR

Bangui

ChadSudan

Darfur

DRCCongo

Cameroon

Timber

Diamonds

Uranium

Gold

Rich soils…


Desperately poor population…

Mali GambiaNigeria CAR Niger Burkina Faso

73

Source: World Bank (2002)

More than 67% of CAR’s 4 million people live on less than one dollar a day

70 6764

61 61 59

Zambia


No development progress…

19901985 1995 2000 2005Source: HDR (2007)

One of only two LDCs in Africa with a falling human development indicator

Human Development Index (HDI) Growth, Base = 100 (1985)

Burkina Faso, Niger, Guinea-Bissau,Mali, Mozambique, Chad, Ethiopia

CAR

DRC

100

+15%

+30%

+45%

-15%


Widening growth gap…

Source: IMF (2007)

1985 1990 2000 2005

Income per head (PPP) grew by less than 20% in CAR, but doubled in Sub-Saharan Africa

1995

GDP growth, Base = 100 (1985)

100

+20%

CAR

Sub-Saharan Africa +100%

+40%

+60%

+80%

-20%


Growing aid gap…

Source: OECD (2007), Development Assistance Disbursements (constant USD), All donors

1985 1990 2000 2005

Development aid to Sub-Saharan Africa rose by 87% since 1985, but fell by 49% for CAR

1995

100

-20%

CAR

Sub-Saharan Africa

+40%

+60%

-80%

ODA Growth, Base = 100 (1985)

-60%

-40%

+20%

+80%

+100%

Slide 30Mar-09 Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR Slide 30Mar-09 Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR

Because of political instability?CAR scores -1.69 on the World Bank’s political instability index

Rwanda

Angola

Central African Republic

Chad

South Africa

Nigeria

Sudan

-2.5

Congo, Dem. Republic of

Somalia

0-1.0 1.0 2.5

Uganda

Cote d’Ivoire

Source: World Bank (2007), Worldwide Governance Indicators, Selection


Very limited international presence in 2007

Paoua

Bangui

Bambari

Birao

Ndélé

SibutBouar

Bossangoa

Bozoum

Kaga-Bandoro


Displacement in the north of the countryIntense conflict in the north from mid 2006 to mid 2007

UN

UN

UNUN

UN

Bossangoa

Kaga-Bandoro

Bangui

Ndélé

Birao

Sam-Ouandja

Gore

Bozoum

Am Timan

Wau

Obo

500 km

UN

Refugee camp

Border

Prefecture

Town / settlement

Road

Road banditry

Intense conflict

Severe attacks / burning


Source: FTS (2008)

2004 20062005

Consolidated Appeals Process (CAP) financing rises from $2.9m in 2004 to $106.5m in ‘08

2007

$9.8m

$77.7m

$2.9m

$23.9m

$106.5m

2008

Increasing humanitarian financing


Paoua

BANGUI

Bambari

Birao

Ndélé

SibutBouar

Sam Ouandja

Bossangoa

Bozoum

500 kmSource: HDPT CAR / Sep 08

Mbrés

Kaga-Bandoro

Kabo

Gordil

International presence in late 2008

Obo

Bocaranga

JUPEDEC


For more information go to:

http://dad.hdptcar.net

http://www.hdptcar.net

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Analysis of aid flows and aid effectiveness in the Central African Republic in 2007