2010 02-27 saratoga-plan-r0

© 2010 by the Capital District Regional Planning CommissionStartEnd

Saratoga P.L.A.N.

Rocco A. Ferraro, AICP, Executive Director

Capital District Regional Planning Commission

© 2010 by the Capital District Regional Planning CommissionCommission

End

CDRPC Commissioners Albany County

Willard A. Bruce, SecretaryJohn Graziano, Jr.Lucille M. McKnightMichael B. Whalen, Jr.{Vacant}

Rensselaer CountyJudy BreselorStan BrownellLeon FiaccoJames D. Shaughnessy, TreasurerMike Stammel

Saratoga CountyFred AcuntoPhilip Barrett, ChairJason KemperJohn MurrayPaul Sausville

Schenectady CountyRobert J. GodlewskiGary Hughes Barbara Mauro, Vice ChairMichael PettaDavid Vincent

© 2010 by the Capital District Regional Planning CommissionPop50

CEnd


CEnd


CEnd


CEnd


CEnd


CEnd

© 2010 by the Capital District Regional Planning CommissionPop50End

239,386

132,607

142,497

74,869

15,473

134,995

72,311

91,785

Albany County

RensselaerCounty

SchenectadyCounty

Saratoga County

County Total Central City

1950


272,926

142,585

152,896

89,096

16,630

81,682

67,492

129,726Albany County

RensselaerCounty

SchenectadyCounty

Saratoga County


1960


286,742

152,510

161,078

121,784

18,845

77,958

62,918


RensselaerCounty

SchenectadyCounty

Saratoga County


1970


285,909

151,966

149,946

153,759

23,906

67,927

56,638


RensselaerCounty

SchenectadyCounty

Saratoga County


1980


292,793

154,429

149,285

181,276

25,001

65,566

54,269


RensselaerCounty

SchenectadyCounty

Saratoga County


1990


294,565

152,538

146,555

200,635

26,186

61,821

49,170

95,658Albany County

RensselaerCounty

SchenectadyCounty

Saratoga County


2000

© 2010 by the Capital District Regional Planning CommissionBP2End

© 2010 by the Capital District Regional Planning CommissionPopPr

ojEnd

SaratogaCounty

Year Population Source

2000 200,635 Census

2008 217,191 Census Estimate

2010 219,391 CDRPC

2020 233,633 CDRPC

© 2010 by the Capital District Regional Planning CommissionAge Cohort

Proj

End

Saratoga County Age Cohort Projections

38.6% 40.5%34.6%

28.7% 27.5% 25.5% 23.1% 22.9%

30.8%31.7%

37.8%42.0%

36.8%

32.8%32.5% 32.3%

20.3%19.1% 18.5% 19.0%

24.2%28.8%

27.6%24.6%

10.3% 8.6% 9.1% 10.3% 11.5% 12.9%16.8%

20.1%

246,647233,633219,391200,635181,276153,759121,67989,096

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Under 20 20 to 44 45 to 64 65 & Older Total

© 2010 by the Capital District Regional Planning CommissionHH by Type

End

Saratoga County Households by Type

35,686

51,935

66,425

78,165

85,556

30,121

39,950

48,363

53,73856,982

84.4%76.9% 72.8% 68.7% 66.6%

1970 1980 1990 2000 2008

Households Family Households Family Households as a % of Total

© 2010 by the Capital District Regional Planning CommissionFam HH by Type

End

Saratoga County Family Households by Type54.8%

34.9%

4.3%6.0%

33.7%

47.0%

11.7%

7.6%

Married Couple with Children Married Couple without Children Single Parent with Children Other Family

1970 2008

© 2010 by the Capital District Regional Planning CommissionPersons/HH

End

Saratoga County Avg. Persons/Household3.33

2.90

2.66

2.512.43 2.38 2.34

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

© 2010 by the Capital District Regional Planning CommissionHH Proj

End

Saratoga County Household Projections

35,686

51,935

66,425

78,165

88,221

96,103

103,232

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

© 2010 by the Capital District Regional Planning CommissionHH Proj

Chart

End

SaratogaCounty

Year Households Source

2000 78,165 Census

2008 85,556 ACS

2010 87,937 CDRPC

2020 95,433 CDRPC

© 2010 by the Capital District Regional Planning CommissionMap-

S1End

Development Scenario 1

2000-2030Status Quo

Trend

72,707 net persons

1 dot = 50 people

• CDRPC Projections• Current Policies


S2End


2000-2030Concentrated

Growth

72,707 net persons

1 dot = 50 people

• CDRPC Projections• Higher Density• Urban Policy Initiatives


S3End


2000-2030Trend

Hyper-Growth

229,341 net persons

1 dot = 50 people

• Average U.S. Growth Rate (1%/year)

• Current Policies


S4End


2000-2030Concentrated

Hyper-Growth

229,340 net persons

1 dot = 50 people

• Average U.S. Growth Rate (1%/year)

• Higher Density• Urban Policy Initiatives

© 2010 by the Capital District Regional Planning CommissionCDR Fiscal Impact

End

Critical Points• The faster the Region grows, the more

critical it is to manage growth to avoid escalating infrastructure costs.

• More dispersed development patterns means higher infrastructure costs, in particular for education.

• Under the trend scenarios the costs to maintain existing infrastructure will be borne by a smaller and less wealthy population.

• Private costs for Water and Wastewater would be less under the concentrated versus the trend growth scenarios.

• Mutual aid assistance agreements for fire and emergency services may not ensure adequate personnel and property protection in fast growing suburban and rural areas dependent on volunteer staffing, accelerating the need to professionalize some currently volunteer districts.

Capital RegionFiscal Impacts of Growth to 2030

$1,698.3 M $1,620.7 M

$4,796.0 M

$3,789.7 M

Fire/EMS

Education

Wastewater

Water

Status QuoTrend

ConcentratedHyper-Growth

TrendHyper-Growth

ConcentratedGrowth

$340.9 M

$1,087.6 M

$151.0 M$118.8 M

$346.9 M

$1,015.1 M

$155.4 M$103.3 M

$868.6 M

$3,329.6 M

$356.6 M

$241.1 M

$881.7 M

$2,203.8 M

$463.0 M

$241.2 M

© 2010 by the Capital District Regional Planning CommissionSar Fiscal Impact

End

$106.8 M $78.9 M

$141.8 M$83.8 M

$554.6 M

$326.3 M

$167.4 M

$76.6 M

$970.5 M

$565.6 M

Status Quo Trend Concentrated Growth

Water Wastewater

Saratoga CountyFiscal Impacts of Growth to 2030

$200.3 M $151.5 M

$259.5 M$219.6 M

$1,391.0 M

$922.4 M

$499.9 M

$313.6 M

$2,350.7 M

$1,607.1 M

Trend Hyper-Growth Concentrated Hyper-Growth

Education Fire/EMS

© 2010 by the Capital District Regional Planning CommissionEndEnd

Capital District Regional Planning CommissionOne Park Place, Suite 102, Albany, New York 12205

518-453-0850 Fax 453-0856 [email protected] http://cdrpc.org

© 2010 by the Capital District Regional Planning CommissionCDR Migrat

ion

End

Capital District Migration of Taxpayers & Dependents20

,434

19,6

51

18,6

01

21,3

56

21,5

05

21,4

37

21,2

55

22,2

14

22,4

48

22,5

22

20,8

91

19,7

91

19,2

22

18,8

55

18,6

72

17,4

20

17,7

54

18,3

49 19,8

26

20,6

85

25,0

82

22,5

86

22,1

36

21,7

48

22,0

43

22,3

89

20,5

14

21,2

06

-23,

101

-22,

740

-20,

954

-23,

160

-22,

011

-21,

013

-21,

401

-21,

428

-22,

051

-22,

192

-20,

841

-20,

550

-20,

694

-21,

395

-23,

121

-22,

301

-23,

129

-22,

257

-22,

373

-21,

045

-25,

312

-20,

600

-19,

527

-20,

711

-21,

760

-21,

883

-21,

815

-22,

373

-2,6

67

-3,0

89

-2,3

53

-1,8

04 -506

424

-146

786

397

330

50

-759

-1,4

72

-2,5

40

-4,4

49

-4,8

81

-5,3

75 -3,9

08 -2,5

47

-360

-230

1,98

6

2,60

9

1,03

7

283

506

-1,3

01

-1,1

67

1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Immigration Emigration Net Migration

© 2010 by the Capital District Regional Planning CommissionSar Migrat

ion

End

Saratoga County Migration of Taxpayers & Dependents10

,203

9,93

6

9,18

5

11,6

47

11,5

95

11,8

41 12,5

68 13,3

54

12,9

26

12,8

83

11,4

50

11,7

09

10,8

68

11,0

92

10,8

19

9,94

8

10,4

55

10,5

98 11,3

07

11,5

58

13,7

42

11,8

64

11,5

61

11,4

00

11,6

51

11,0

78

10,2

31

10,6

69

-9,8

74

-10,

049

-9,2

75

-10,

699

-10,

174

-9,6

58

-9,8

97

-9,9

88

-10,

828

-10,

775

-10,

601

-10,

171

-10,

373

-10,

029

-10,

901

-10,

472

-10,

591

-10,

048

-10,

163

-9,8

30

-12,

004 -1

0,37

1

-9,6

13

-10,

430

-10,

610

-10,

662

-9,8

44

-9,9

31

329

-113 -9

0

948 1,

421 2,18

3

2,67

1

3,36

6

2,09

8

2,10

8

849 1,

538

495 1,

063

-82

-524 -1

36

550 1,

144

1,72

8

1,73

8

1,49

3

1,94

8

970

1,04

1

416

387 73

8

1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Immigration Emigration Net Migration

News & Politics

2010 02-27 saratoga-plan-r0