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10 Maps That Explain Russia’s Strategy
Russia is almost landlocked.
This map reveals Russia’s major weak point.
The country has limited access to global maritime trade—
which overall has a big political and economic impact.
Europe controls Russia’s access to the oceans.
European Russia has three access points to global
maritime trade: the Black Sea, St. Petersburg, and the Arctic
Ocean.
Europe, however, controls nearly all water passageways
from these points.
In other words, Russia is politically landlocked. This
demonstrates the country’s vulnerability to NATO.
Russia’s population clusters along its western border.
Russian agriculture is in the southwest.
Russia’s railroad network is oriented toward the west.
Simply put, the core of Russia’s infrastructure is positioned along the western border.
The country has few barriers to stop the enemy from paralyzing
its economic activity.
Now, let’s look back at history.
This is Russia’s position in 1914, just before WWI.
The Russian Empire’s penetration into Europe before WWI gave it a significant buffer
against the West.
The depth of this buffer allowed the Russians to fend off attacks from Germany and the Austro-
Hungarian Empire in 1914.
German-Occupied Europe in 1942
The extent of the German advance in the southeast during
WWII posed a big threat to Russia’s sovereignty.
The Germans seized almost all of the European Peninsula and, in their final thrust, moved east
and south into the Caucasus.
Ultimately, Russia defeated Germany through depth and the toughness of its troops.
If Russia didn’t have that strategic depth, it would have
lost the war.
The Furthest Russia Extended After WWII
No wonder Russia’s strategy at the close of and after World
War II was to push its frontiers as far west as possible.
Russia managed to seize the entirety of Eastern Europe
during the Cold War, which was an ideal position for the Soviet
Union.
However, when oil prices fell in the 1980s, the Russians could
not sustain the decline of revenue. This crippled the
Soviet Union.
With so few natural and political barriers, today’s Russia is at risk.
After 1991, Russia lost control of nearly all of Eastern Europe.
Its border had not been that close to Moscow in a very long
time.
The West absorbed the Baltics into NATO, bringing St.
Petersburg within a hundred miles of a NATO country.
Ukraine, however, has been the most critical buffer against the
West for the Russians.
The Ukrainian border goes through Russia’s agricultural
center, as well as large population centers and
transportation networks.
Letting a pro-Western regime gain a foothold so close to the Russian heartland would make Russia more vulnerable than
ever.
As a result, the Russians are unlikely to leave the Ukrainian
question where it is.
Russia has a very diverse yet united society.
Don’t underestimate the power of anti-Western solidarity in
Russia.
The inherent support for the Russian nation remains
powerful, despite the ethnic diversity and economic
difficulties.
It’s not prosperity, but shared idealization that holds the
country together.
All of this gives the Russians an opportunity.
However bad their economy is, the simplicity of Russia’s geographic position and
cultural character give them capabilities that can surprise
anyone.
In other words, now Russia has nothing to lose. That gives
them a strong psychological advantage against the West.
SUBSCRIBEGeorge Friedman provides unbiased assessment of the global outlook in his free publication, This Week in Geopolitics.
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