Low Carbon Innovation Tour 2009Delivering results that will make history

Dennis Pamlin

Global Policy Advisor, WWF

2009 The Ashridge Sustainable Innovation Award in association with the EABIS and supported by HP and WWF

Sustainable Development

Creating a society that long-term can:Improve the quality of human life, giving everyone a chance to live a life in dignity, while living within the carrying capacity of supportive ecosystems,and leaving room for other species to exist.

ACT 1The Crime

ACT 2The Villain

ACT 3The Hero

?

Source: Global Entrepreneurship Monitor 2006

Personality (1)Know your history (your thinking)

Long-term GDP trendsGoldman Sachs

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

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2050

$USb

n

China

US

Japan

Germany

UK

France

Italy

India

EU-4

Dreaming With BRICs: The Path to 2050 (Goldman Sachs)

http://www.gs.com/insight/research/reports/report6.html http://www2.goldmansachs.com/ideas/brics/brics-dream.html, October 2003

Personality (1)Know your history (your thinking)

The CO2 explosionand explosion of use of natural resources

Personality (2)Global perspective

Personality (2)Global perspective

Shifting the development profile to a “low poverty” world means energy needs double by 2050

Shifting the development profile further to a “developed” world means energy needs triple by 2050

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2000 2050

Low Poverty

Base case Prosperous world

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Population expected to rise to 9 billion by 2050, mainly in poorest and developing countries.

Developed (GDP>$12,000)Emerging (GDP<$12,000)Developing (GDP<$5,000)Poorest (GDP<$1,500)

Primary energy

Sou

rce:

WB

CS

D a

dapt

atio

n of

IEA

200

3

Personality (2)Global perspective

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 ++

The rate of technological change is closely related to the lifetime of the relevant capital stock and equipment

Motor vehicles 12 – 20 years

Nuclear 30 – 60 years

Coal power 45+ years

Hydro 75+ years

Gas turbines 25+ years

Buildings 45+++ years

Facts and Trends to 2050, WBCSD, November 2004

Personalty (3): Understand the Future

Winners in a low carbon economy

Or just winners in the 21st century

THINK BIG

What % of that investment can/must be invested in low carbon solutions instead of traditional carbon intensive solutions?

Urban investments to provide basic services the next 30 years

US $255 Trillion

Archive number

X Trillion dollars1. Light2. Water3. Motion/

communication

4. Temperature5. Food6. Other services

0 CO2

Low energy

Focus on services and solutions

The example of IT

The 98% opportunity

A global context

ICT's effect on CO2

-48,37

4,73

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

milli

on to

nnes

CO

2

possible CO2 replacement

ICT's impact in CO2

16 telcos’ impact 6 ICT services’ potential

The 98% opportunity

REALITY

HP climate strategy framework

Reduce HP-owned operations footprint

Reduce the impact of our products on the climate Develop products

and services that will reduce the footprint of the rest of the economy

Advocate for effective public policy to enable the transformation of the economy to low-carbon

2-4Mt CO2e*/ Highest control

50-80Mt CO2e* / Medium control

Up to 30,000Mt CO2e* / Lowest control

29 04/10/23

* Maximum addressable footprint. Order of magnitude.

低碳城市发展指标之哥本哈根宣言The Copenhagen declaration for a low carbon city development index

The example of retailing

Climate Positive approach

1. More renewable energy 3. More energy efficient equipment

6. Low carbon retailing business model5. Increased public transport Improved home delivery

2. Net production of electricity

4. Furniture that allows for flexible workand furniture that support low carbon food

Suppliers

transport

StoresExtraction Use Disposal

Reality

Possible climate positive contributions from IKEA

Suppliers

transp.

Stores

People transp.

Extraction Use Disposal

transport 13 500 000 CO2

Climate smart food 25 300 000 CO2

Total content in round wood 9 400 000 CO2

1/3 might be possible to capture = 3 000 000 CO2

Renewables

200 000 CO2

Trendsetting * 5 incl. a significant shift to e-commerce: 3 140 000 CO2

Total CO2 reduction potential 49 000 000 tonnes

Changing from GLS to CFL and 50% from current CFL to LED 2 000 000 CO2

Removing all 50% energy use from kitchen appliances 125 000 year/1 250 000 lifetime CO2

Action

A winner in the future

Old approach NewGoal Low risk/ Low cost Satisfying needs/New revenues Driver Media/Legislation New markets/Customers

Responsible PR/CSR manager Planning/SMT/CEO/Board

Focus What is easy to see/ Where the company’s impact legal responsibility is the most significant and

where money can be made

Climate change Reduce internal CO2 Help society to reduce CO2

Approach Reactive Proactive

Sustainable development谢谢 !