Essentiel Foresights: Our Digital World by 2020

@gleonhard FuturistGerd.com

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“Logic proves, intuition discovers” Henri Poincare

“The greatest danger in times of turbulence is not the turbulence, itself, but to act with yesterday’s logic”

*Peter Drucker

“The greatest danger in times of turbulence is not the turbulence, itself, but to act with yesterday’s logic”

*Peter Drucker

We are going 300 km/h but are looking mostly in the rearview-mirror…

We need both foresight and focus

HellVen

Technology’s duality

HellVen is a default fact now Hyper-efficiency is in overdrive Culture clash of HOW versus WHY

Yes, technology can do almost everything, soon.

But should it?

“It will become increasingly hard to define whether a new technology is an overall good thing or not; and the question will no longer be whether technology can do something but whether it should be done” (Gerd)

Technology has not ethics but a human society - and its businesses and industries - depend on it

Melvin Kranzberg “Technology is neither good nor evil. The most we can say about it is this: It has come.”

Exponentiality

1 2 4 8 16 32 64…

“How does a person go broke? Gradually, then suddenly”

Ernest Hemingway

Increasing Scarcity inside

Increasing Abundance

outside

Image of BP platform via US Coast Guard

Technology is causing exponential societal changes

‘Wait and see’ really means ‘watch me die’ Foresight & imagination becomes critical Most innovation will ‘not be invented here’

Clip via IBM / Youtube

Image of BP platform via US Coast Guard

Tesla: the first truly exponential car company?

Image of BP platform via US Coast Guard

Tesla’s reverse approach to what used to be ‘normal’

Digitization and Automation

The automation of everything?

The automation of jobs: huge changes are imminentLive demo of Quartz interactive graphic

The automation of jobs: huge changes are imminentON YOUTUBE:

Google Now is only the very tip of the AI iceberg: automation, real-time data, inter-connectivity, technology in the background,

NUIs / voice / gesture control, intelligent digital assistants…

Google Now via Youtube

Digitization changes everyone/thing -Business models collapse or reboot

Toxic assumptions must be discarded Consumer empowerment is dramatic, contagious, non-negotiable…cruel…? ‘Trying to fax a cat’ is deadly (music!)

http://frankdiana.wordpress.com/2014/04/03/the-smart-home/

“You ain’t see nothing yet” - Exponential changes are ahead

What happened to media will happen to all digitally contestable businesses: hyper-efficiency

Previously closed, walled or protected businesses are being cracked open by software innovators

Data becomes a key economic driver, globally Human jobs will focus on human-only capabilities Huge boom in software, AI, interfaces

Big Data Big Brother

Privacy

Image of BP platform via US Coast Guard

Data drives our future (literally)

Data economy will be regulated just like oil and fossil fuels * Expect a constant back and forth of public, collective common values versus private and individual values Global data standards are sorely needed (and already emergent!)

Data really is the new Oil:)

Data is the new oil, broadband and software are the pipelines, mobile devices are the gas-stations

Video via IBM on IoT (Youtube)

Should ‘big data’ be regulated just like ‘big oil’?

“Technology is not really about

hardware and software any more. It’s really about the mining and use of

this enormous data to make the world a

better place” !

Eric Schmidt, Google’s executive chairman, told an audience of MIT students

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“Big business decisions will be made not be experts or intuition but by big data and predictive analytics” Virginia Rometty, CEO and chairwoman of IBM http://www.stuff.co.nz/technology/digital-living/9549067/To-2014-and-Beyond

‘Code Halos’

Inevitable?

Image of BP platform via US Coast Guard

“All that happens must be known” - Dave Eggers

http://flic.kr/p/97PVQi!

Ignorance is dangerous, but so is the obsession with omniscience

Expect increasing backlash against ‘over-connectivity’ Significant ‘trust pressure’ on US-based ‘big internet’ co’s Splinternets / Spyinternets could thwart purpose of ‘Net

Consumers are finally starting to feel the heat…

Secure, private, safe offerings will do exceedingly well Hereto trusted ‘internet darlings’ may become the next (*old) Microsoft i.e. ubiquitous but very much un-liked ‘I’ll do anything to get free & convenient services’ is over

Image of BP platform via US Coast Guard

Expect more ‘Datawars’

Beware: technology works both ways…

“Search engines won’t wait for you to ask for information. They will know you like a

friend, aware of your concerns and interests at a detailed level” Ray Kurzweil

Total digitization, ubiquitous connectivity, machine intelligence and ‘very very big data’ will require new norms, rules and markets - and new social contracts

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B4 Internet 1st digital wave Now Tomorrow?

Power of Technology Privacy & Anonymity

The coming balancing act

Photo by 900hp - http://flic.kr/p/9MTJpf

Key challenges: security, standards, ethics, new social contracts, finding consensus

Human-Machine Futures

AI & Robots

Our mobile devices: predictive. realtime. contextual. intelligent

Increasing outsourcing of ‘thinking’ to software, apps, devices, platforms Deep-AI emerges as key dystopian theme Humanness will matter increasingly… IF….

http://www.flickr.com/photos/bobsfever/7034556759/in/photostream/

“Machines are for answers, humans are for questions” (Kevin Kelly)

Dramatic shifts in HR, work, jobs Complete re-set of corporate structures (silos)

A whole new industry emerges Technological unemployment Huge impact on education

The interface / UI revolution has barely started

Voice control will replace typing Automated language translation is going mainstream

Ambient Information & Predictive Services

where is this going?

Yes, technology can do almost everything, soon.

But should it?

Machine Thinking

Business is not a machine (neither are business people) Buying decisions are not really rational Most big data is rather dumb when it comes to actual human relevance

Increased magnitude of unintended consequences

Just imagine…

Jobs and Work

The robots are coming, for sure

Global changes to work, jobs and employment

Less people needed, across the board Many new jobs about to be invented Sooner or later, end of ‘working for a living’ Redefinition of capitalism (a minor challenge)

Business Intelligence (BI): going warp-drive via smart software

10 good people + software and AI will do the work of 100 people just a few years ago ‘Data hubris’ becomes a major problem (‘machine thinking’ will prove deadly) It’s less and less about mere analysis and more aboit sense-making and data-fueled intuition

The future of jobs, work and education: the return of human-only skills

Subjective reasoning Imagination Negotiation Questioning Empathising Storytelling Connecting Creativity

Design

http://www.flickr.com/photos/bobsfever/7034556759/in/photostream/http://www.flickr.com/photos/7468552@N08/4044554793

According to a Sept 2013 Oxford study, occupations that involve complex perception and manipulation tasks,

creative intelligence tasks, and social intelligence tasks are unlikely to be substituted by computer capital over the next decade or two. So the key to defeating robots - in the

movies and in real life - is doing what they can't.  !

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http://www.entrepreneur.com/

“Currently, education is mostly about preparing people for life

in a 20th century factory”

The Global Brain or.. Drain?

Will social media, hyper-connectivity,

cheap devices, big data & AI,

wearables and the ‘Internet of Things’ create

a kind of Global Brain?

Seriously increased velocity Hyper-collaboration is default Outliers increasingly use ‘backdoors’ to disrupt incumbents

(Almost) anyone from anywhere could be your next biggest competitor BRIC / CIVETS etc will take the lead

Possible? Desirable?

Transformation

An era of rapid Digital Transformation

How many components of your business are digitally contestable ?

“How does a person go broke? Gradually, then suddenly”

Ernest Hemingway

10x the ‘human Internet’ - are you ready?

“The greatest danger in times of turbulence is not the turbulence, itself, but to act with yesterday’s logic”

*Peter Drucker

The coming Sustainability

Default

RSRC: Responsible Sustainable Regenerative Circular

Stock-market logic will soon re-boot to actually reward sustainable, renewable, responsible businesses (3BL) Technology will continue to make giant leaps in efficiency Renewable energy, food and water will become the biggest business opportunities ever (‘green business’ revolution)

Heading towards a circular economy

Communications Media

Marketing Advertising

“Software is eating the world” (Marc Andreessen)Inevitable transfer of value from traditional companies to software companies

Films, TV, Music, Print: from Unit Economy to Access Economy

Broadcast

Cable & Satellite

Cloud (+ social + mobile)

First, content & entertainment, then everything else

Cloud computing is the next mobile (irresistible) Data MYning becomes a key trend (user control) Cloud-readiness is a major driver of success

Social Media-Telecom-eCommerce-BroadcastersFacebook is paying more than double its annual revenue for a chat

program that has little revenue. The purchase price is slightly more than the market value of Sony Corp. "Facebook is the leading global social-sharing utility. Now, it has a significant opportunity to be the leading global communications utility," RBC Capital Markets said in a note.

Ubiquitous low-cost connectivity will bring…Even more market fragmentation Less mass-markets, more hits in niches Brands can increasingly ‘go direct’ Big Data moves centre-stage Privacy is major concern #datawars Digital hyper-efficiency everywhere Digitally-native disruption abounds

Even more market fragmentation Less mass-markets, more hits in niches Brands can increasingly ‘go direct’ Big Data moves centre-stage Privacy is major concern #datawars Digital hyper-efficiency everywhere Digitally-native disruption abounds

Photo by iamos - http://flic.kr/p/5uUFSo

Media pre SoLoMo: provide mousetraps for advertisers

Global Paradigm Shift in Marketing | Advertising | Public Relations | Branding

Surveillance-based advertising is killing the golden goose

Re-invention of $1 Trillion industry Era of ‘free at all cost’ is ending

Total customer empowerment. Dialog. Conversation.

Increasing transparency (hopefully not a ‘tyranny’) End of silos in and outside of organisations Everything is CRM (marketing IS the product)

Reason to Buy - not Force to Buy

“We give the greatest subjective value to things that are relatively scarce”

(Ronald Inglehart)

Increasing Scarcity inside

Increasing Abundance

outside

Offline Luxury

Image of BP platform via US Coast Guard

Being in the moment…

http://www.slideshare.net/oscaruro/jobs-of-the-future-31332319?qid=0d12d81d-3ed7-421d-8ff2-3356be128bdd&v=default&b=&from_search=8

‘Offline’ will be the new luxury

This is not a yes or no issue, but an ‘it depends’ issue ‘Addictive substances’ will and should be regulated New social contracts will emerge i.e. ‘digital ethics’

FOMO …not sustainable

Quantified self or… qualified slave?

Is ‘seeing everything’ really desirable?Most of the value creation passes from us to the platforms that we empower

Offline luxury is probably un-desired in a global Data and AI-driven world Hyper-convenience is truly addictive

Business Models

Connectivity, most information and content as well as many digital goods become like water, electric power or… air

Capitalism will become circular ie ‘renewable’ Value must be build around the core, all the time ‘New Generatives’ as well as new metrics required

The ‘sharing economy’ is real but beware of ‘Jerk-Tech’ and Data-Hubris

http://diamandis.abundancehub.com/

“I love Uber, the ridesharing app that connects people who need rides with drivers. Instead of my normal $35 taxi ride to LAX, an UberX car takes me for about $11. Uber is one of a new generation of dematerializing,

demonetizing and democratizing technologies that's disrupting the status quo” Peter Diamantis

‘Beyond the Pills’ (just add your own product type here)

Novartis CEO Jimenez: “I really believe that in the future, companies like Novartis are going to be paid

on patient outcomes as opposed to selling the pills” Pharmas are looking to move to a range of value-

added services under the moniker beyond-the-pill – and most of those new services are digital.

“Beyond-the-pill is a logical and inevitable path forward for all”

Creating value by embedding products into a holistic offering with the aim to improve patient

outcomes and provide tangible competitive advantages.”

Such holistic offerings include telehealth services, wellness programs, and improved chronic

disease management over patients’ lifetimes. http://www.forbes.com/sites/jasonbloomberg/2014/08/15/digital-transformation-moves-pharma-beyond-the-pill/

Ethics in a digital world

Some digital heresy

Technology has not ethics but a human society - and its businesses and industries depend on it

Melvin Kranzberg: “Technology is neither good nor evil. The most we can say about it is this: It has come.”

Businesses must become extremely data-smart & technologically super-intelligent

- and even more extremely human

In a recent lecture at Harvard University neuroscientist Jeff Lichtman, who is attempting to map the human brain, has calculated that several billion petabytes of data storage would be

needed to index the entire human brain. The Internet is currently estimated to be 5 million terabytes (TB) of which Google has indexed roughly 200 TB or just .004% of its total size.

http://www.industrytap.com/knowledge-doubling-every-12-months-soon-to-be-every-12-hours/3950

Digital Obesity. Group-Think. Filter Bubbles.

Soon, it will be a lot less about if technology can do something, but why, who and when it should be done

Image of BP platform via US Coast Guard

Algorithm ‘Humarithm’☯

Unintended consequences explode

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Thanks for your attention!@gleonhard