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Presentation on theory and application of a model of public relations measurement and evaluation. Presented at the International Public Relations IPRA conference, Lima Peru September 2013
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© Geddes Analytics™ 2012. Not for distribution without permission.
Advancing Public Relations MeasurementSeptember 19, 2012
David Geddes, Ph.D.
Managing DirectorGeddes Analytics LLC
Chair, Institute for PR Measurement Commission
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© Geddes Analytics. Not for distribution without permission.
Agenda
Part I: PR measurement today▫Standards
▫A standard framework
Part II: PR measurement tomorrow▫Predictive analytics
▫Building organizational value
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A standard framework1 Begin with theory
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Message sender
Send
Originate
Encode
Transmission mediumor channel
1
2
3
Message recipient
Receive
Understand
Decode
3
2
1
Noise
N N
N
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A standard framework2 Translate to practice
Activities
Outputs
Reception
Outtakes orPR outcomes
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Send
Originate
Encode
Transmission
channelReceive
Understand
Decode
Recip
ien
tS
en
der
Act Business results
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Activities
•What did you do?
•Control by PR
•Visible
•Operational efficiency▫Staff time
▫Budget
•Use: PR group, CFO
Outputs
Reception
Outtakes
Comms results
Activities
Business results
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Outputs
•Message availabilityto target audiences▫Media analytics
▫Social media analytics
▫Other (events, etc.)
•Correlate with activities
•Use: Within PR group
Reception
Outtakes
Comms results
Activities
Business results
Outputs
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Reception
•Handle PR outputs
•Manipulate outputs
• Involvement with outputs
•Correlate with activities
• Is this engagement?
•Use: Within PR group
Outputs
Outtakes
Comms results
Activities
Business results
Reception
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Outtakes
•Cognitive change▫Awareness
▫Understanding
▫Perceptions
▫Advocacy
•Use: CMO, marketing and communications executives
Outputs
Reception
Comms results
Activities
Business results
Outtakes
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Communicationsresults
•Specific, desired behaviors
•Precursor to business value
•Link to outcomes, etc.
•Use: CMO, marketing and communications executives
Outputs
Reception
Outtakes
Activities
Business results
Comms results
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Business results
•Tactical, consumer results
•Strategic business results
•ROI
•Statistical methods
•Use: CEO, CMO, business unit leaders
Outputs
Reception
Outtakes
Activities
Business results
Comms results
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A standard framework3 Influence and engagement
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Engagement 1
•Where does it fit?▫Reception
▫Handling
•What is it?▫Precursor to
cognitive change
▫Upstream
Outputs
Reception
Outtakes
Comms results
Activities
Business results
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Engagement 2
•Where does it fit?▫Relevance▫Relationships▫Advocacy
•What is it?▫Result of cognition
▫Downstream▫Precursor to results
Outputs
Reception
Outtakes
Comms results
Activities
Business results
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Influence 1
•Where does it fit?▫Reception
▫Information availability
•What is it?▫Precursor to
cognitive change
▫Upstream
Outputs
Reception
Outtakes
Comms results
Activities
Business results
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Influence 2
•Where does it fit?▫Outtake
•What is it?▫Result of cognition▫A new way of
thinking▫Downstream▫Precursor to results
Outputs
Reception
Outtakes
Comms results
Activities
Business results
© Geddes Analytics™ 2012. Not for distribution without permission.
Predictive analytics
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The situation today
•Companies monitor traditional and social media…
▫But don’t know what media messages actually change opinions and drives behaviors
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The situation today
•Companies probe the marketplace via surveys and media listening platforms, but …
▫Cannot look ahead
▫Risk getting blindsided
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The situation today
•Monthly measurement reports give a look backwards, but …
▫Cannot evaluate possible scenarios
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Today’s challenge
▫Analyze past data
▫Understand what really drives change
▫Link social / traditional media to business outcomes
▫Build systems to give a look ahead
▫Facilitates responsive management
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Case studies
Toyota recall crisis
Consumer sentiment about the economy
Teenage smoking behavior
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1. Toyota recall crisis•Key questions
1. What shapes opinion about the Toyota brand?
2. Can we predict brand reputation from media?
•Data▫Predictor variables
News, online, blogs, forums … no broadcast
▫Dependent variable Brand reputation
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All mediaR2 = 0.84
Survey− Model
Positive documents
Negative documents
Positive opinion
Neutral opinion
Negative opinion
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2. Consumer economic sentiment•Key questions
1. What shapes consumer opinions about the economy: media or marketplace experience?
2. Can we predict consumer sentiment from media alone?
•Data▫Predictor variables:
AP wire and Washington Post
▫Dependent variable: University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index
▫1977 to 2007
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Key results▫ We can predict based
on media alone
▫ Models based work over long time period
▫ Media play primary role in shaping opinion about their economic well-being
▫ Shelf life of information near zero
Training data
Test data
Training and test data
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3. Teenage smoking
Key questions
• Can we predict teenage smoking behavior from media alone?
• Does public policy affect smoking behaviors?
• Do anti-smoking campaigns work?
Data• Predictor variables:
▫ Newspapers, Google newsgroups
▫ 10 messages
▫ Cost per pack
• Dependent variable:
▫ Monitoring the Future nationwide surveys(http://monitoringthefuture.org/)
• 1991 to 2002
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Key results▫We can predict behaviors based on media alone
▫Cost improves prediction
▫Attitude that cigarettes are hard to get improves prediction
▫Anti-smoking campaigns and policy changes work
− Predicted smoking☐ Reported smoking
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The InfoTrend™ Model
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Powerful yet simple: basic structure
NeutralPositive Negative
K3
K4
K2
K1
Negative message force
Positive message forceStep I
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Minimal ideodynamic model
Do not try this at home
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Data requirements
Predictor variables
•Multi-channel
•Sentiment scores
•Messages tagged
Outcome variables
•Survey data
•Behavioral data
•Business data
•Must show change
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Concluding remarks
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What have we learned?
•Media Outcomes▫Sentiment
▫Messages
•But … random variability▫What does this mean for communications>
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Prediction and forecasting
© New York Times
•Early enough to take action
• Probable vs. improbable
•Scenario planning and simulation
•Strategic responsiveness• Michael Raynor. 2007. The Strategy Paradox: Why Committing to Success
Leads to Failure. New York: Doubleday.
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Prediction and forecasting © Geddes Analytics. Not for distribution without permission.
© Geddes Analytics™ 2012. Not for distribution without permission.