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Founding partners
Energy Architecture & UN Sustainable Development-opportunities and our personal leadership
16th February 2017, Berlin
Adriaan Kamp
Energy For One World
MiniMBA New Energy Realities
Adriaan Kamp 2012 - Energy For One WorldA practice on Global Change, Energy
Architecture, UN SDG’s and Leadership.
Program Director Executive Energy (transition) & Leadership Education
20 years Industry/Shell International : Upstream ( 5 Countries and HQ).
Contents of Session
1. Year 2015-2017: Global Change, Energy Architecture, Climate Change and the Sustainable Development Agenda 2030
2. Organising ourselves
3. Opportunities, Skills and our (Personal) Leadership
2015 Year of Energy, Climate Change Agreement and the Sustainable Development 2030 Agenda
Prof. Jeffrey Sachs- Earth Institute: The Age of Sustainable Development
2/3/2017
Clickable Video Presentation
Clickable Presentation
BP Energy Outlook - 2017
2017- BP Energy Outlook
9
BP Energy Outlook 2035
2/3/2017
BP Energy Statistics 2016
Exxon Mobile Analytical View of the World
12
BRIC:It’s our time. Let us grow our Economies and take care of
our peopleYou’ll fix whatever you want to
fix!
The West:“If you do as I have done
it will be a mess.”
Let us all change- rapidlyLet’s secure our nation,
people and planet
Emerging:Will there be enough for
us?Can i afford it?
Who will deliver it to me?
The poor:When will we see electricity and get
mobility?
Opec and GasPec:You need us!
We can deliver your needs!What is all that fuzz about
Availability and climate change?
14
2014 2030-2050
7 Billion People
9 BillionPeople
90 trillion USD
economy
180-210 trillion
USD
225 million oil eq/day
500- 750 million
oil eq/day
400 ppm CO2 and Carbon Budget consumed for 2 degrees/ 21st century
??? ppm CO2 and Climate Change Effects
2/1/2012 Energy For One World- All Rights Reserved
Founding partners
03.02.2017
Geopolitical shifts and re-alignments
• Economic and finance system change and fundamentals
• A new technological era: 4th Industrial Revolution.
• Global production systems & the rise of new (multinational) corporations
• Social Changes (network economies), and the quest for wealth justice
• Planetary boundaries/ Resource Scarcities
• Demographic change and migration/ Changing labour markets
Global Change
PwC 1400 CEO Global View
G7 and the next 100 years
Pope Francis and his Encyclical Laudato Si! – on Poverty, People and the Environment: Care for Creation
Living Planet Reports
UN FCCC COP21 Paris (3) - Paris Climate Change Agreement
Year 2017 – A new styled President Trump with Executive Orders
22
Year 2017 – Re-balancing of Geopolitics and Emotions
23
Davos 2017- “Crisis in the Middle-Class”
24
www.energyandstuff.org
25
Clickable Go to Website
26
Better Business- Better World
27
Contents of Session
1. Year 2015: Global Change, Climate Change and the Sustainable Development Agenda 2030
2. Organising ourselves
3. Opportunities, Skills and our (Personal) Leadership
UNRegional Blocks
CountriesCities
CommunitiesCompanies and InstitutesCo-alitions of the Willing
Sustainable Community Building
The Rise of a new middle-class ( 3 Billion) – in MegaCitiesand more people live in Greater Tokyo (35m) than in all of Canada
The top 10 cities by population:
1. Tokyo, (34 million)
2. Seoul (24.4 million)
3. Guangzhou (24.2 million)
4. Mexico City (23.4 million)
5. Delhi (23.2 million)
6. Mumbai (22.8 million)
7. New York (22.2 million)
8. Sao Paolo (20.9 million)
9. Manila (19.6 million)
10. Shanghai (19.4 million)
All above fit comfortably into the list
Of Top-50 nations by population
Old and New Clickable Presentations
Vs 250 Bn USD investment
Click to Go To Website
Germany: An example how it works- in real
Clickable Access to Report
New Possibility Thinking (1)- Mission Innovation
New Possibility Thinking (3)- Largest Solar Farm (First Solar)
2 4 8 16 32 64 128 256 512 1024
2 yr 4yr 6yr 8 yr 10 yr 12 yr 14 yr 16 yr 18yr 20 yr
5 yr 10 yr 15 yr 20 yr 25 yr 30 yr 35 yr 40 yr 45 yr 50 yr
3500 hectares160,000 homes1,5 Bn USD550 MW8 million panels
New Possibility Thinking (4)- Largest Offshore Wind Farm’s
4
2 4 8 16 32 64 128 256 512 1024
2 yr 4yr 6yr 8 yr 10 yr 12 yr 14 yr 16 yr 18yr 20 yr
5 yr 10 yr 15 yr 20 yr 25 yr 30 yr 35 yr 40 yr 45 yr 50 yr
An offshore area of 100km2175 wind turbinesTwo offshore substationsNearly 450km of offshore cablingOne onshore substation630MW of electricityEnough power for nearly half a million homes
New Possibility Thinking (5): New distributed utility
New Possibility Thinking (6)- Solar City- A New Value Proposition
New Possibility Thinking (7)- Car-manufacturer, Carlos Ghosn
Electric Vehicles sales are in direct correlation with the number and amount of charging stations installed in a city, region or nation.
It's a public-private partnership. It's a matter of trust. It's a matter of convenience. But it surely the way to go into our Future.
(Carlos doesnot believe in fuel-celled LPV's. He is truly committed to the electrification of self-driving and navigating new car concepts)
Uber Google
New Possibility Thinking(8)Smart Cities
The vision of “Smart Cities” is the urban center of the future, made safe, secure environmentally green, and efficient because all structures - whether for power, water, transportation, etc. are designed, constructed, and maintained making use of advanced, integrated materials, sensors, electronics, and networks which are interfaced with computerized systems comprised of databases, tracking, and decision-making algorithms. - U.S. Dept. of Energy, “The Vision of a Smart City”, 2000
Examples of New, Smart or Sustainable Cities:• C40 – Vancouver, Oslo, New York, etc. • Masdar, Abu Dhabi, • New Songho City, South Korea, • Gujarat International Finance Tec-City, India• King Abdullah + Economic Cities Saudi Arabia• e.g. China Tianjin Development•PM Modi’s 100 smart cities
•King Abdullah Economic City, Saudi Arabia
New Possibility Thinking (9) Better Architecture- Zero, Zero-Plus and more
2/3/2017
New Possibility Thinking (11)Energy Project Finance
New Possibility Thinking (12)Finance, Banks and Insurers
We are here- so mind the gap !
The Dutch New Energy Delta Plan
Roughly Equals
Present
Oil & Gas Company
Jobs
Clean-Tech/ Renewables
Oil & Gas
The Present Big Elephant in the Room:
Budget Volatilities in Oil-Resource Economies
The Context We see Ourselves in
56
From WEF/ Accenture: The energy architecture is an integrated physical system of energy sources, carriers and demand sectors
shaped by government, industry and civil society.
The energy architecture on location is a reflection of the socio-political, economic, ecological and business philosophies,
leadership and interests exercised on location.
The energy architecture in a country, region or global community is (ideally) to serve (the rise of, establishment of) thriving sustainable societies- making energy available, affordable and sustainable to all: balancing economic
interests with that of society and nature. Here and there. Now and in the future.
57
Energy Architecture
Re-inventing Strategies/Relationships: “X-Factor of Integration, Transition and Transformation”
Renewables
Energy Efficiency
Product Re-designs
Energy Architectures
Re-designs
Fossil
1 2
3
4
5
Levels of Maturity of ChangeIntegration- Transition- Transformation
• Level 1
• Level 2
• Level 3
• Level 4
• Change and No Change. Resistance to Change. Policy, Administrative and Derivative Change (CO2 tax, ETS, Accounting). Coal vs. Gas. Continued backroom lobbying
• Full Integration of Renewables (clean-tech, energy conservations, smartness, etc.) in the Energy Architecture -but not with a system change. Retained regulations, ownership , revenue, tax and capital control structures
• Transition to a New Energy Architecture and Newly shared socio-economic and corporate business models- also in international trade
• Transformation of Economies and Societies. Eco-modernity and New human consciousness
“Every Energy Company and Every Energy Architecture in this world can be improved upon in order to raise the availability, affordability and sustainability of
energy to all”.- Adriaan Kamp, 2015
62
A New Business Worthiness Pledge
The United Nations Sustainable Development Goals provide a
once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to end poverty, combat climate
change and fight injustice and inequality. By applying
innovation, resources and expertise, I will pursue the business
opportunities inherent in building greener, more equitable and
inclusive societies
I am a business leader who knows that business cannot
succeed in societies that fail. I will do my utmost to be
businessworthy in all my efforts, and true to my business to
support the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. I
call on my peers to do the same.
Country Categories
• OECD- USA, Canada, Europe, Japan, Australia
• (Richer, Resource based) OPEC/ GasPec
• China Inc., India Inc.
• Developing (without Resources)
• Developing (with Resources)
• Least developed. Poor.
Pathways for JobsEnergy & Non-Energy
Mainstream
• Governments (1)
• Energy Corporates and Incumbents (2)
• New Entrants/ Innovators/ Game-changers (3)
• Non-Energy Sectors/ Green Growth/ UN SDGs (4)
1+2+3+4 +5= Hybrid Eco-system Bottoms-up
• Community, Start-up Community (5)
No Jobs Plans
Dubai Understanding our Ways
New Jobs in Non-Energy Economy
Prof. Kotter: Organize to Change
197 countries need to change
Building New Bridges
Contents of Session
1. Year 2015-2017: Global Change, Energy ArchitectureClimate Change and the Sustainable Development Agenda 2030
2. Organising ourselves
3. Opportunities, Skills and our (Personal) Leadership
One World. Many Needs. Many Views
Founding partners
“In Leadership- we are all students for life”
Energy For One World- 2012, All Rights Reserved
Leadership Levels
• Managing Yourself
• Managing Others
• Managing complex change &
• Managing multi-stakeholders
Managing yourself
Energy For One World- 2012, All Rights Reserved
Founding partners
“Only good can come from good”
Energy For One World- 2012, All Rights Reserved
How much do you know about (your) self?
Energy For One World- 2012, All Rights Reserved
What happy people know
Energy For One World- 2012, All Rights Reserved
Conquering the self
Energy For One World- 2012, All Rights Reserved
Managing others
Energy For One World- 2012, All Rights Reserved
Founding partners
“Manage others as you would like to be managed yourself”
(golden rule)
Energy For One World- 2012, All Rights Reserved
Organizing people
2/3/2017
Leadership and Vision: Opportunity Framing and Decision Based Delivery
•The possibility for Value Creation is largest in the Early Stages of any opportunity
How good is your
Opportunity
Framing ?
Energy For One World- 2012, All Rights Reserved
Ram Charan- Execute
Energy For One World- 2012, All Rights Reserved
Rex Tillerson (“Hi- I am the New Guy”)Plain Leadership talk – at US State Department
Accountability
Honesty
Respect
One TEAM, One Mission
Good is the enemy of Great
From Good to Great
Energy For One World- 2012, All Rights Reserved
Servant Leadership
• Compassionate love
• Authenticity
• Humbleness
• Empowerment
• Provide direction
• Stewardship
Here’s the essence of the gospel of Greenleaf. First and foremost, truly great managers want to serve the people they lead. They do this by supporting them rather than dictating to them, and by assigning top priority to employee well-being. Deceptively simple and deeply profound
Pope Francis and Laudato Si!
Managing complex change/ multi-stakeholders
Energy For One World- 2012, All Rights Reserved
Energy For One World- 2012, All Rights Reserved
“Resistance to change falls when the benefits are clear”
Kotter on Change and Organizations for Change
Can We Listen before Change?
Ernest Gundling: Understanding Cultures and Relationships. The way it works
Energy For One World- 2017, All Rights Reserved
CoreValues
Cultural Dimensions
Global People Skills
CONSCIOUS
UNCONSCIOUS
Eco-
Conscious
Moderated Consumerism
Limits to Growth
Cradle-to-Cradle, Bio-Mimicry
Zero emissions
Nature First
Networked
Society
Away with traditional country and/or
corporate borders : City-Hubs.
Horizontal, cross-border
collaborations
Cultural awareness and tolerance
A new world of sharing and
Power to the People
Expansion of wealth, ownership and new growth
Continued Consumerism and Hedonistic life-styles.
Short-termism, Schumpeter, Ayn Rand, Resilience
A world of larger inequalities and divisions:
Rich and poor. Have’s and Have Not’s
Money First
Shared
Capitalis
m
A world of Power , Principles and
Politics
Polarisation between Beliefs and/or
Power Blocks
The Geo-politics of Emotions
Darwin’s Survival of the Fittest
Power to the Strongest,
First
Darwin
Techno
Modernity
The world of Prof. Michio Kaku and
Kurz Weill Singularity
Game-changers and Disruptive
Innovations
A world of Smart Cities, New Surprises ,
Exponential Growth and Abundance
The Rule of Science &
Technology
Conscious Capitalism
The rise of new (global and business)
leadership: Gandhi’s and Mandela’s
Neuroscience , psychology and spirituality
Gaia, Oneness and Global Mind-set.
Transformative
leadership
Conscious
Humanity
