Living with Exponential Growth

LIVING WITH EXPONENTIAL GROWTH AND EXPONENTIAL THREATS

Annual Conference of World Future Society, 2014

Neeraj MitalPresident, Visions of Future.

www.visionsoffuture.comNeeraj-quest.blogspot.comnmital@visionsoffuture.com

(A Case for threat prevention as significantly higher priority than fostering growth)

We Are Also Planting Seeds of Our Own Destruction

While We Are Enjoying

Neeraj Mital, Visions of Future, www.visionsoffuture.com, www.neeraj-quest.blogspot.com, [email protected]

It was the best of times, it was the worst of times,

it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness… Charles Dickens, “A Tale of Two Cities”,

1859

Longer life and better health Immediate access to information Instant connection with family and

friends Endless choices of entertainment Convenience of ecommerce

Global warming Increased worldwide destructive

power Cyber threats Depletion of natural resources

Is today the age of

wisdom or foolishness

http://www.visionsoffuture.com/

http://www.neeraj-quest.blogspot.com/

Now, on the verge of many disruptive technologies

3D printing, Personalized medication Internet of things and the list goes on …

Not only we have achieved tremendous growth, the growth is exponential.


1000 bc to 9000 bc – practically no change

Starting 1760 (Industrial Revolution) - major changesLast 50 years - significantly faster changes

Destructive power and availability of threats also growing Exponentially.

If we plotted the time vs “destructive power”, the chances are, it would look similar to the chart above.

(source: “Abundance: The future is better than you think”, Peter H. Diamandiss and Steven Kotler.)

Growth of World Population and the History of Technology




There have been 5 major extinctions in Earth’s history

The last one being the extinction of all dinosaurs around 65 million years ago

Currently, species are becoming extinct at a rate far higher than any of the extinction events of

the past This has been categorized as

6th extinction

And 6th ExtinctionCyber ThreatsNuclear War

Volcanoes

Bio ThreatsGlobal WarmingWater Shortage

Depletion of Resources

We are in danger of destroying ourselves

by our greed and stupidity. Dr. Stephen Hawking

Meteorites




We are the only intelligent species we know of Earth is a rare planet, to be able to support multi cellular

life Even on earth, our existence is probably a chance – for

one, if dinosaurs hadn’t gone extinct, we probably wouldn’t be here

We have the opportunity to become something moreHumanity could be a one-time opportunity…we can’t afford to mess

it up.

The world belongs to humanity. We are unique on Earth…and maybe even in the entire universe!

The Dalia Lama



Where does the responsibility of risk prevention lie?

Government Corporate Sector Non Profit Organizations


Academic Institutions

Individuals

BASICALLY ON EVERYONE

Will humanity evolve fast enough to fulfill our increasing responsibilities



So what can we do… First, truly comprehend the problem.


“If I had an hour to solve a problem, I’d spend 55 minutes thinking

about the problem and 5 minutes thinking about solutions.”But...we have created a world In a few centuries, humanity could : Develop near immortality Reduce our dependence on our physical

body Develop ability to migrate to other planets Develop capability to engineer our

own evolution AND…develop immunity from all the known

threats we face today!

with threats of extreme nature That is undergoing 6th extinction

Albert Einstein

Most threats are our own creation.

Prevention strategies must also grow Exponentially

Threats are growing exponentially



So what can we do…Get a better understanding of ourselves

Growth is automatic− It is at the core of human nature and can’t be stopped− It is driven by our primal need to survive

We are not programmed for safety− Risk prevention is not automatic


Seeds of self destruction are deeply rooted in our genetic makeup!

We need to . . .But . . . We have the unique gift of

selfintrospection and power to chose our action

Rise above our own limitations



So what can we do… Increase our Awareness


“We cannot solve our problems with the same level of thinking that created them.”Currently, we aren’t even aware of the risks on a basic

levelBut ... Consider a simple example

Pirated software is more likely to have viruses

It can cause havoc not only on your computer but to the entire network

That makes the practice of using pirated software worse than, say, shoplifting

Shoplifting is prohibited by law as well as is a socially unacceptable practice

Society is much more liberal in its perception of using pirated software

Awareness regarding our health, fitness, nutrition growing rapidly.

We need the same level of awareness for growing threats.

Albert Einstein



Experts and authorities need to comprehend and internalize this reality and get into a room. The real actions may then emerge.

So what can we do… Take Action


Here are some thoughts to fuel the discussion--- A lot more safety regulations are needed before release of dangerous technology. Put technology and products that could be harmful through rigorous tests and trials just like

we do with drugs. Prevent risky technology from becoming freely available. Develop response plans (antidotes) for the misuse of technology before it is released. Make

it mandatory . Offer subsidies to companies developing risk prevention technologies.

Threats are growing exponentially. Prevention strategies need to keep pace.



Can we afford that drastic approach?


These are tough decisions. They will involve – Compromise to growth

COMPROMISE ON MANY OTHER FRONTS…

Growth trends lead to unprecedented freedom, power, longevity, and more.

Growing threats point to possible self destruction - even leading to extinction. Isn’t keeping threats under control,

at all cost Our Only Choice!

But do we have a choice?

Compromise to life style



In conclusionOur destiny will be defined by us

With all due credits to Charles Dickens –

We ARE living in the age of extreme wisdomWe ARE living in the age of extreme foolishness

Let’s do our bit to make sure -We do not join the dinosaurs in extinction.

Instead go down in history as being - WISE and IMMORTAL.




References Exponential Growth - realizing the dream. “Abundance. The future is better than you think”, Peter H. Diamandis,

Steven Kotler. “Visions”, Michio Kaku. “Threats to Humanity”, Leroy W. Dubeck Ph.D., Suzanne E. Moshier Ph.D. Dinosaur Extinction. Global catastrophic risks. On the exponential curve. Why I Believe That This Will Be The Most Innovative Decade In History, Peter

H. Diamandis.

World On Brink Of Sixth Great Extinction. Rare Earth hypothesis.

http://neeraj-quest.blogspot.com/2013/10/exponential-growth-realizing-dream.html

http://science.nationalgeographic.com/science/prehistoric-world/dinosaur-extinction

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_catastrophic_risks

http://www.wired.co.uk/magazine/archive/2013/05/singularity-university/on-the-exponential-curve

http://www.forbes.com/sites/singularity/2012/06/25/most-innovative-decade-in-history




http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/05/29/sixth-great-extinction-species-disappearing_n_5412571.html

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rare_Earth_hypothesis

Neeraj Mital

Neeraj Mital, President of Visions of Future, is a futurist writer,

speaker, and technology consultant. He is also the founder of Sofnet Technologies, Inc., an IT consulting company.

Neeraj is passionate about envisioning a better future for mankind.

He enjoys Indian classic and folk music, ping pong, bridge, and not the least, brisk walk on trails where he gets

inspiration for a lot of his writing ideas.




Leadership & Management

Living with Exponential Growth