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Investor Presentation November 2009

Tupras November 2009 3 Q

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Page 1: Tupras November 2009 3 Q

Investor Presentation

November 2009

Page 2: Tupras November 2009 3 Q

2

Summary of Current Environment & Performance

•Local demand down in line with expectations•Rural Diesel demand worst hit – highest correlation with GDP

Demand

•Optimisation in production•Continued use of semi-products•Opportunity Crudes

Crude Processed

•Lower Volumes•Optimising Upgrade Units•White Product Yield Increase

Production

•Focused on domestic market•Decrease in Exports

Sales

•Benchmark margins:•Oversupply & reduced demand, •Poor Crude Differentials•Big Tüpraş Margin premium• better yields•lower exports

Margins

•Increased Size of units•Final negotiations with short listed constructors •Financial packages under discussion

Coker Update

Page 3: Tupras November 2009 3 Q

3

Petroleum Industry

Company Overview

Investments & Environment

Key Financials

Page 4: Tupras November 2009 3 Q

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Refinery Sector Outlook

Disposals• Petroplus Antwerp,

bought by Vitol• Eni - Linovo,

seeking buyer• Shell Europe,

possible Essar deal

• Grangemouth, Petrochina talks

• Tulsa, Sunoco & Sinclair

Mothballed• Sunoco - Eagle

Point • Petroplus –

Teeside• Western Refining

- Bloomfield

Closures• Nippon plans

600.000 bpd closures

• Total Normandy, capacity reduction

Page 5: Tupras November 2009 3 Q

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Crude Prices & Exchange Rate

Jan 09 Feb 09 Mar 09 Apr 09 May 09 Jun 09 Jul 09 Jul 09 Aug 09 Sep 09 Oct 0940455055606570758085

43.6 43.146.5

50.3

57.5

68.664.6

72.8

67.5

72.8

Crude Prices $ /bblDaily Monthly

Jan 09 Jan 09 Feb 09 Mar 09 Apr 09 May 09 Jun 09 Jul 09 Aug 09 Sep 09 Oct 091.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

1.6

1.7

1.8

1.9

1.601.66

1.71

1.601.56 1.55

1.521.49 1.49 1.47

Turkish Lira / Dollar Daily Monthly

Page 6: Tupras November 2009 3 Q

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Product Ratios

Jan

Jan

Feb Mar

Mar Apr

May

May Ju

n Jul

JulAug Sep Oct Oct

0.90

1.00

1.10

1.20

1.30

1.40

1.50 Gasoline200720082009

Margin weakness is fundamentally driven by middle distillates.

Gasoline ratios have been weak but above last year’s terrible lows.

Fuel oil prices have been strong. Lack of heavy crudes means lower

production. Has led to higher utilisation of

hydroskimming refineries.

Jan

Jan

Feb Mar

Mar Apr

May

May Ju

n Jul

JulAug Sep Oct Oct

1.00

1.10

1.20

1.30

1.40

1.50

1.60 Diesel200720082009

Jan

Jan

Feb Mar

Mar Apr

May

May Ju

n Jul

JulAug Sep Oct Oct

0.500.550.600.650.700.750.800.850.900.951.00

Fuel Oil2007 2008 2009

Page 7: Tupras November 2009 3 Q

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Turkish Sector Outlook

Diesel• Decline in

demand from road transportation

• Dieselisation continues – ULSD demand is growing

Jet• Global

demand to be hit by reduction in discretionary flying

• Turkish Airlines passenger numbers up, jet sales at record levels

Gasoline• Other factors

more important than economy

• LPG substitution continues more slowly

Fuel Oil• Trailing price

of natural gas boosted sales in first quarter, but is depressing sales currently

Page 8: Tupras November 2009 3 Q

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Turkish Consumption 000*M3 (January – September)

  2008 2009  

Gasoline 2,063 2,017 -2.23%

High Octane Gasoline 245 232 -5.12%

Total Gasoline 2,307 2,249 -2.54%

Rural Diesel 10,019 8,982 -10.35%

10 ppm Diesel 2,549 2,916 14.40%

Total Diesel 12,568 11,899 -5.33%

Home Heating Oil (Ton) 259 214 -17.42%

High Sulphur Fuel Oil (Ton) 1,761 1,357 -22.98%

Black Products 2,020 1,570 -22.27%

Page 9: Tupras November 2009 3 Q

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Turkish Monthly Diesel Consumption

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec0.0

200,000.0

400,000.0

600,000.0

800,000.0

1,000,000.0

1,200,000.0

1,400,000.0

1,600,000.0

1,800,000.0

2007 2008 2009

Page 10: Tupras November 2009 3 Q

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93 95 '00 '08 '15 2020

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40LPG Naphtha Gasoline Jet Gas Oil / Diesel

Fuel Oil Asphalt Others

~3% Decline in total white product consumption expected in 2009

10

Turkish Oil Products Demand Projection (Million Ton)

Page 11: Tupras November 2009 3 Q

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Turkey’s Import / Export Balance (Net)

LPG Gasoline Diesel Fuel oil-8

-7

-6

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

-2.5

0.8

-4.9

1.7

-2.5

1.3

-5.8

2.7

-2.7

2.3

-6.7

1.5

2006 2007 2008

(Million Ton)

(Export)

(Import)

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Page 12: Tupras November 2009 3 Q

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Vehicle Parc Comparison (per 1000 People)

Passenger Cars, 2006

USA

Canad

a

Japa

nEU15

Russia

S.Kor

ea

Turke

y

China

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

776

561 540508

245 237

8826

Turkey By Vehicle Type

2007 2008

P. Cars 92 95

Motorcycles 28 31

LGV 27 29

Tractors 19 19

Truck 10 10

Minibus 5 5

Bus/Coach 3 3

Special Purpose

1 0

Total 184 192

Page 13: Tupras November 2009 3 Q

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Petroleum Industry

Company Overview

Investments & Environment

Key Financials

13

Page 14: Tupras November 2009 3 Q

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TÜPRAŞ Assets

Baku

Ceyhan

Black Sea

Marmara

Mersin

Ankara

İstanbul

Kırıkkale5.0 mtNC: 6.32

Batman1,1 mtNC:1.83

Kirkuk

Shipping

Ditaş79.98% Share165 kDWT Crude Tanker10.5 kDWT, 2 New Product Tankers

Retailin

g

Opet40% Share1,340 Retail Sites1,161 kM3 StorageTrading, Lubricants & Bunkering activities

İzmit11.0 mtNC: 7.78

İzmir 11.0 mt NC: 7.66

Total Refining Capacity: 28.1 Million TonsCurrent Nelson Complexity(NC): 7.25

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Page 15: Tupras November 2009 3 Q

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Opet

1st Q 2nd Q 3rd Q-20

020406080

-14.6

47.6

13.317.6

51.4

28.543.1

70.4

51.8

Financials*, mn TL

Net Profit Operating ProfitGross Profit

• Results– EBITDA $191 Million

• Network– Opet: 795, Sunpet: 544, – Total 1,339

• Terminal Capacity– 1,161,042m3.

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 - 9M8

10

12

14

16

18

11.5

13.5

14.9

16.517.3

12.8

14.615.2

16.1 16.3

% Market Share Development

GasolineDiesel

* Tüpraş’s 40% share

Page 16: Tupras November 2009 3 Q

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36.5

65.6

249.1

784

43.7

Koç Energy Group Storage Capacities

Aygaz

Opet

Tüpraş

Unmatched

Logistics Strength1,161,000 M3150,000 M3 5,100,000 M3 100% Coverage

of Turkey

16

(1000 M3)

Page 17: Tupras November 2009 3 Q

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2006 2007 20080.0

0.4 0.4

2006 2007 2008

0.5 0.91.7

2006 2007 2008

0.10.5

1.1

2007 2008 2009P

2.1 2.1 2.1

Russia

Kazakhstan

Iran

S. Arabia

Italy

Libya

Domestic

Azerbaijan

2006 2007 2008

4.5

0.1

2006 2007 2008

8.9 8.97.5

2006 2007 2008

3.5 3.3 3.4

2006 2007 2008

0.1 0.1

17

Crude Suppliers of TÜPRAŞ (million ton)

%30

%48

2006 2007 2008

6.7

9.1

6.6

2007 2008

0.1

UK

2006 2007 20080.0

0.20.5

IraqSyria

Page 18: Tupras November 2009 3 Q

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2006 3rd Q 2007 3rd Q 2008 3rd Q 2009 3rd Q0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

3.79

1.56

6.37

1.87

5.38

3.75

6.72

1.59

Tüpraş Net Margin Med Complex

Yields

• Lower black products, optimised for high value products

Semi Finished Products

• ASRFO, HVGO, Naphtha

Domestic Focus

• Less Exports

Net Refining Margins

18

Page 19: Tupras November 2009 3 Q

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Production Volumes

1Q

2Q

3Q

4Q

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

5.51

6.22

6.18

6.07

5.15

6.25

6.47

4.85

3.29

4.19

4.44

Quarterly Volumes (Million Tons)

2009 2008 2007

Page 20: Tupras November 2009 3 Q

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24.1%

42.8%

7.3%

25.9%

Gasoline24.0%

Naphtha0.0%

Jet12.2%

1000 ppm Gas Oil14.6%

ULSD15.9%

Other3.3%

LPG4.0%

Fuel Oil13.4%

Asphalt12.5%

OtherWhite

BlackProducts

Gasoline18.5%

Naphtha2.8%

Jet12.6%

1000 ppm Gas Oil18.1%

ULSD10.4%

Other3.0%

LPG3.4%

Fuel Oil21.8%

Asphalt9.4%

21.3%

41.0%

6.4%

31.3%

9M Products Yields

Middle Distillate

LightDistillate

BlackProducts

White Product 73.2%Production : 11.9 mn ton

2008 2009

Other White

White Product 68.2 %Production : 17.9 mn ton

LightDistillate

MiddleDistillate

Page 21: Tupras November 2009 3 Q

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Domestic Sales, Ton*000

9M 2008 9M 2009 Product 3Q 2008 3Q 2009

711 655 (56) LPG 243 244 2

427 83 (344) Naphtha 142 0 (142)

1,500 1,514 14 Gasoline 602 594 (8)

1,811 2,015 204 Jet Fuel 703 804 101

4,816 3,782 (1,035) Diesel 1,760 1,355 (405)

1,589 1,756 167 Diesel 50/10 ppm 629 688 59

8,216 7,553 (663) Middle Distillate 3,092 2,847 (245)

2,300 2,085 (215) Fuel Oil 711 480 (231)

1,678 1,474 (204) Asphalt 990 793 (197)

393 417 24 Other 107 183 76

15,224 13,780 (1,444) Total 5,885 5,141 (744)

Page 22: Tupras November 2009 3 Q

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Full Year (Million Tons)

Gasoline Middle Dist.

Fuel Oil Other0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.02.6

1.1

2.3

0.2

2.2

0.9

2.7

0.6

20072008

9 Month (KTons)

Gasoline Middle Dist.

Fuel Oil Other0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

1,863

720

2,073

152

1,452

151

802

15

20082009

Export Volumes

Page 23: Tupras November 2009 3 Q

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9M Trading Activities

• Finished Products– Gasoil imports up 20%– LPG & Jet imported to make up

shortfall

HVGO + LCGO

ASR F.Oil Naphtha+ Other

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

109,162

861,501

149,965

Intermediate Imports, Ton*000

2008 2009

LPG Diesel LSFO F.Oil Jet0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

38,606

1,857,105

301,408134,106

2,233,053

400,781

29,755

565,426

Product Imports, Ton*000

2008 2009

• Intermediates– HVGO & ASRFO were imported

to keep the hydrocrackers running full capacity.

– Naphtha imported to produce gasoline

Page 24: Tupras November 2009 3 Q

24

Total Sales By Customers- 9 Months 2009

Petrol

Retailer

s59.0%

LPG

Dist.

4.0%

Petkim0.5%

Export14.9%

Others9.1%

Asphalt9.1%

Military3.4%

Sales by Customer Group

POAŞ34.2%

Shell19.6%

OPET14.9%

BP10.5%

Others (45)20.7%

Sales to Petrol Retailers

Total Sales : 16,2 million ton First 4 Distributors’ Share 79.2 %

Page 25: Tupras November 2009 3 Q

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Petroleum Industry

Company Overview

Investments & Environment

Key Financials

25

Page 26: Tupras November 2009 3 Q

26

Investments

50

1989-2005 2006-2007 2008 2006-2013-200

400

1,000

1,600

2,200

2,800

3,400

1,600

45292

544

350

176303

2,6561,950

628395

3,200

Master PlanNew & OtherSeries3

Million USD

26

Gasoline Improvement Storage Capacity +1.1mn ton Residium Upgrading OEP & others

Page 27: Tupras November 2009 3 Q

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Company Strategy

Co

mmercial

•Increased Product Trade•>50% Increase in 9M 2009

•Sea and Rail Logistics•2 New Product Tankers

•Wagon loading / unloading

Inve

stme

nt

•Euro V Completed•Terminal Capacity•Reduce Black Product

Op

erational

•Energy Efficiency•Losses•Integrity and Reliability•Health , Safety and Environment•2007-2008 Saving $162 Million

Page 28: Tupras November 2009 3 Q

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Changes

• Scale• Capacity of project increased by

30%• Will utilise residuals from other

refineries• Timing

• Completion expected end of 2013• Financing more by Export Credit

Agency• Budget

• $1.5-$2 Billion, • Costs may be 30% less

The Fundamentals

• Fuel Oil / Diesel Spreads• $200 spreads are temporary• Fuel oil prices will decrease with

more heavy crude• Diesel / Jet prices will improve

with recovery• LSFO req. for Bunkering

• Product Mix• Turkey will still be very short of

diesel and long on fuel oil

Coker Update

Page 29: Tupras November 2009 3 Q

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RUP Product Yields

Raw Materials• Atm. Dip: 1,008• Fuel Oil: 2,603• Asphalt: 646

• Total Black: 4,237• MTBE: 138

• Natural Gas: 464

Finished Products• LPG: 203

• Gasoline: 772• Diesel: 2,548

• Total White: 3,523• Petrocoke: 807• Sulphur: 127• Total: 4,457

Page 30: Tupras November 2009 3 Q

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Financial Summary

Page 31: Tupras November 2009 3 Q

31

Petroleum Industry

Company Overview

Investments & Environment

Key Financials

31

Page 32: Tupras November 2009 3 Q

32

Financial Highlights (mn $)

2005 2006 2007 2008 9M 2008

9M 2009

0

500

1000

1500

769 712

1081 1116

1286.39

566.214000000001

EBITDA

2005 2006 2007 2008 9M 2008

9M 2009

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

508575

998

333

932.38

391.611

Net Income

2005 2006 2007 2008 9M 2008

9M 2009

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

-421

259

-229

215 199

-617

Net Debt/(Cash)

2005 2006 2007 2008 9M 2008 9M 20090

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.220.25

0.34

0.12

0.366

0.231

Return on Average Equity

Page 33: Tupras November 2009 3 Q

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Profitability Indicators , January-September

  2008 2009Difference

Amount

(%)

Dtd.Brent Price, ($/bbl) 111.02 57.15 -53.87 -48.5

Brent vs Tüpraş Crude Cost, ($/bbl) 5.30 1.91 -3.39 -64.0

Processed Crude API 32.24 32.29 0.05 0.2

White Product Yield, (%) 68.20 73.20 5.0 7.3

         

Med. Complex Margin,($/bbl) 5.57 2.15 -3.42 -61.4

Tüpraş Net Margin,($/bbl) 4.88 2.09 -2.79 -57%

Operating Profit, (mn. $) 1,189 474 -715 -60.1

EBITDA (mn. $) 1,286 566 -720 -56.0

*EBITDA (mn. $) CCS 1,105 484 -621 -56.2

       

**Opet Operating Profit -40% (mn. $) 86.29 62.44 -23.85 -27.6

**Opet EBITDA -40% (mn. $) 102.41 76.21 -26.2 -25.6

*CCS – Current Cost of Sales, ** 40% representing Tüpraş’s share

Page 34: Tupras November 2009 3 Q

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Income Statement

9 M 9 M% Diff. Million USD

3Q 3Q % Diff. 2009 2008 2009 2008

9.438 20.122 -53 Net Sales 4.406 7.814 -44

760 1.549 -51 Gross Profit 317 508 -38

-318 -390 -18 Operating Expenses -129 -135 -4

32 30 7 Income/Loss from other operations 17 11 58

474 1.189 -60 Operating Profit 204 384 -47

131 240 -45 Financial Income 63 90 -30

-114 -256 -55 Finance Expenses -34 -34 0

490 1.173 -58 Profit Before Tax & Minorities 232 440 -47

392 932 -58 Net Profit 184 347 -47

Page 35: Tupras November 2009 3 Q

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FX Risk Exposure (30 September 2009 )

Million $

Consolidated Assets

Consolidated Liabilities

Financial Loans: 321

Short Term Loans: 274

Payables: 1,925

Stock : 1,343

Recievables:82

Cash: 968

-128

Sole Tüpraş -90 Million $

Page 36: Tupras November 2009 3 Q

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Ratings & Corporate Governance

Fitch Rating Comparison

FOREIGN CURRENCY LOCAL CURRENCY

Long-term Long-term National

SOVEREIGN BB- (Pos) BB (Stab)  -

TÜPRAŞ BB (Pos) BBB-(Stab) AAA (tur) (Stab)

Petkim BB (Stab) BB-(Stab) AA- (tur) (Stab)

P. Ofisi BB (Stab) BB-(Stab) AA- (tur) (Stab)

Hürriyet BB- (Neg) BB- (Neg) AA- (tur) (Neg)

Çalık Holding B (Neg) B-(Neg) BBB (tur) (Neg)

Vestel B (Stab) B (Stab)  -

Turkcell BB (Pos) BBB-(Stab)  -

Corporate Governance Rating

Board

Stakeholders

Transparency

Shareholders

Overall

0% 20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

67.31

96.02

89.76

83.06

83.41

Rating by Saha Ratings

36

Page 37: Tupras November 2009 3 Q

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Thank you…

The Investor Relations section of our company website has a wealth of constantly updated information of interest to investors.

www.tupras.com.tr

37

Page 38: Tupras November 2009 3 Q

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Disclaimer

This presentation contains forward-looking statements that reflect the Company management’s current views with respect to certain future events. Although it is believed that the expectations reflected in these statements are reasonable, they may be affected by a variety of variables and changes in underlying assumptions that could cause actual results to differ materially.

Neither Tüpraş nor any of its directors, managers or employees nor any other person shall have any liability whatsoever for any loss arising from use of this presentation.

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