Jefferies conference investor presentation final

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  1. 1. MOVING THE WORLD AT WORK Oshkosh Corporation (NYSE:OSK) Jefferies 2015 Global Industrials Conference August 12, 2015
  2. 2. MOVING THE WORLD AT WORK This presentation contains statements that the Company believes to be forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. All statements other than statements of historical fact, including, without limitation, statements regarding the Companys future financial position, business strategy, targets, projected sales, costs, earnings, capital expenditures, debt levels and cash flows, and plans and objectives of management for future operations, are forward-looking statements. When used in this presentation, words such as may, will, expect, intend, estimate, anticipate, believe, should, project or plan or the negative thereof or variations thereon or similar terminology are generally intended to identify forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and are subject to risks, uncertainties, assumptions and other factors, some of which are beyond the Companys control, which could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. These factors include the cyclical nature of the Companys access equipment, commercial and fire & emergency markets, which are particularly impacted by the strength of U.S. and European economies; the Companys estimates of access equipment demand; the strength of the U.S. dollar and its impact on Company exports, translation of foreign sales and purchased materials; the expected level and timing of DoD and international defense customer procurement of products and services and funding thereof; risks related to reductions in government expenditures in light of U.S. defense budget pressures, sequestration and an uncertain DoD tactical wheeled vehicle strategy, including the Companys ability to successfully manage the cost reductions required as a result of lower customer orders in the defense segment; the Companys ability to win a U.S. Joint Light Tactical Vehicle production contract award and finalize international contracts for a significant quantity of M-ATVs, with sales beginning in fiscal 2016; the Companys ability to increase prices to raise margins or offset higher input costs; increasing commodity and other raw material costs, particularly in a sustained economic recovery; risks related to facilities expansion, consolidation and alignment, including the amounts of related costs and charges and that anticipated cost savings may not be achieved; global economic uncertainty, which could lead to additional impairment charges related to many of the Companys intangible assets and/or a slower recovery in the Companys cyclical businesses than Company or equity market expectations; projected adoption rates of work at height machinery in emerging markets; the impact of severe weather or natural disasters that may affect the Company, its suppliers or its customers; risks related to the collectability of receivables, particularly for those businesses with exposure to construction markets; the cost of any warranty campaigns related to the Companys products; risks related to production or shipment delays arising from quality or production issues; risks associated with international operations and sales, including compliance with the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act; the Companys ability to comply with complex laws and regulations applicable to U.S. government contractors; cybersecurity risks and costs of defending against, mitigating and responding to a data security breach; and risks related to the Companys ability to successfully execute on its strategic road map and meet its long-term financial goals. Additional information concerning these and other factors is contained in the Companys filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including the Form 8-K filed July 30, 2015. All forward-looking statements speak only as of July 30, 2015. The Company assumes no obligation, and disclaims any obligation, to update information contained in this presentation. Investors should be aware that the Company may not update such information until the Companys next quarterly earnings conference call, if at all. Forward-Looking Statements 2August 12, 2015Oshkosh Corporation Investor Presentation
  3. 3. MOVING THE WORLD AT WORK Oshkosh Corporation Leading provider of specialty vehicles Moving the World at Work Nearly 100 years in business; incorporated in 1917 Serial innovator of game changing new products Market Capitalization(1): $2.9 billion FY14 Revenue: $6.8 billion Focused on delivering value to customers and shareholders 3 (1) As of July 31, 2015 Access Equipment Defense Fire & Emergency Commercial August 12, 2015Oshkosh Corporation Investor Presentation
  4. 4. MOVING THE WORLD AT WORK MOVE Strategy Driving Performance Focuses on drivers that create highest shareholder value Supports higher margin targets across non- defense businesses over the cycle 4August 12, 2015Oshkosh Corporation Investor Presentation And Beyond FY15
  5. 5. MOVING THE WORLD AT WORK Recent Performance Some Success, Some Near-Term Challenges Access equipment demand softened beginning in Q3 Actively managing costs and inventory levels Increased sales, operating income and backlog in Q3 at Fire & Emergency and Commercial segments Inflection point in defense earnings in Q4 Re-starting FHTV production Backlog up 38% at June 30; first increase since Q4 FY11 International contracts expected to drive return to growth in FY16 and FY17 5August 12, 2015Oshkosh Corporation Investor Presentation
  6. 6. MOVING THE WORLD AT WORK Expectations for FY15** Additional expectations Corporate expenses of $125 - $130 million Tax rate of ~ 32% CapEx of ~ $150 million Cash usage* ~ $150 million Assumes share count of ~ 79.5 million Segment information Revenues of ~ $6.1 billion Adjusted operating income* of $400 million to $425 million Adjusted EPS* of $3.00 to $3.25 * Non-GAAP results. See Appendix for reconciliation to GAAP results. 6 Q4 Commentary EPS lower than prior year as a result of lower expected access equipment sales and operating income Measure Access Equipment Defense Fire & Emergency Commercial Sales (billions) ~ $3.4 ~ $0.9 ~ $0.8 ~ $1.0 Operating Income Margin ~ 12.8% Slightly Above Break Even ~ 4.25% ~ 6.5% August 12, 2015Oshkosh Corporation Investor Presentation ** As of July 30, 2015.
  7. 7. MOVING THE WORLD AT WORK Continuing to MOVE Forward Overcoming Short-Term Challenges Expectations: Solid EPS growth in FY16 and FY17 Defense returning to meaningful growth From trough earnings in FY15 Continued recovery in commercial and fire & emergency segments Overcome mid-cycle dip in access equipment demand in FY15/FY16 Partially mitigate impact with cost reduction Resuming meaningful share repurchases Initially repurchase 2.9 million shares (current authorization) 7August 12, 2015Oshkosh Corporation Investor Presentation
  8. 8. MOVING THE WORLD AT WORK 8August 12, 2015Oshkosh Corporation Investor Presentation Basis for Outlook
  9. 9. MOVING THE WORLD AT WORK Access Equipment The Market Leader MOVE is delivering Margin improvement remains a top opportunity New products driving customer demand Product adoption continues globally Market recovery element continues to lag Believe longer-term fundamental business drivers remain intact Improving residential and non- residential construction Replacement demand in Europe Product adoption in developing markets Expect 5 10% sales decline in FY16 9 Reaching Out Rising to Every Challenge August 12, 2015Oshkosh Corporation Investor Presentation
  10. 10. MOVING THE WORLD AT WORK Slow U.S. Construction Recovery is Continuing 10 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, July 17, 2015 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, August 3, 2015 U.S. Housing Starts - Current Annual Forecasts (millions) Date 2015 2016 2017 Global Insight May-15 1.08 1.30 1.45 Moody's - Slower Recovery Jul-15 1.04 1.20 1.64 Portland Cement Association Apr-15 1.18 1.34 1.53 Average Analyst Estimate 1.10 1.28 1.54 U.S. Nonresidential Construction (yr/yr Growth) - Current Analyst Estimates Date 2015 2016 2017 Portland Cement Association Apr-15 8.8% 8.3% 6.3% FMI Source Jun-15 8.0% 6.0% 5.0% Global Insight Jun-15 1.8% 4.0% 2.8% Moody's Slower Recovery Jul-15 5.3% 6.2% 7.9% Construction Market Data Aug-15 10.4% 7.8% N/A Dodge Data & Analytics Aug-15 11.6% 12.8% N/A Average Analyst Estimate 7.7% 7.5% 5.5% Thousands $ Millions U.S. Non-Residential SpendingHousing Starts August 12, 2015Oshkosh Corporation Investor Presentation 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 1,100 1,200 1,300 Jan2010 Jul2010 Jan2011 Jul2011 Jan2012 Jul2012 Jan2013 Jul2013 Jan2014 Jul2014 Jan2015 450,000 500,000 550,000 600,000 650,000 700,000 Jan2010 Jul2010 Jan2011 Jul2011 Jan2012 Jul2012 Jan2013 Jul2013 Jan2014 Jul2014 Jan2015
  11. 11. MOVING THE WORLD AT WORK Defense Returning to Growth with Upside Opportunities Believe FY15 will be trough year for both revenues and operating income Secured major contract orders for FHTV recap and FMTV First year-over-year backlog increase since FY11 Pursuing thousands of international M-ATV unit sales Broad family of variants Expect few hundred on contract in FY15 Expect contract for > 1,000 in early FY16; majority for FY16 delivery Expect additional contracts for 2,000+ M-ATVs in FY16 for delivery after FY16 11 Mission Proven World-Class Performance August 12, 2015Oshkosh Corporation Investor Presentation
  12. 12. MOVING THE WORLD AT WORK M-ATV Variants August 12, 2015Oshkosh Corporation Investor Presentation 12 Patrol Utility EOD Mortar Assault Command Anti-Tank Ambulance Eight M-ATV variants, seven with a long wheel base Common powertrain, instrument panel, tires a