16
NLMK Moscow, 2012 Q3 AND 9M 2012 US GAAP CONSOLIDATED RESULTS OLEG BAGRIN, CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER AND CHAIRMAN OF MANAGEMENT BOARD GALINA AGLYAMOVA, CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER

Conference call presentation with ceo and cfo 3 q 2012 us gaap

Embed Size (px)

DESCRIPTION

NLMK Q3 2012 Financials

Citation preview

Page 1: Conference call presentation with ceo and cfo 3 q 2012 us gaap

NLMK

Moscow, 2012

Q3 AND 9M 2012 US GAAP CONSOLIDATED RESULTS

OLEG BAGRIN, CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER AND CHAIRMAN OF MANAGEMENT BOARD

GALINA AGLYAMOVA, CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER

Page 2: Conference call presentation with ceo and cfo 3 q 2012 us gaap

This document is confidential and has been prepared by NLMK (the “Company”) solely for use at the investor presentation of the Company and may not be reproduced, retransmitted or further distributed to any other person or published, in whole or in part, for any other purpose. This document does not constitute or form part of any advertisement of securities, any offer or invitation to sell or issue or any solicitation of any offer to purchase or subscribe for, any shares in the Company or Global Depositary Shares (GDSs), nor shall it or any part of it nor the fact of its presentation or distribution form the basis of, or be relied on in connection with, any contract or investment decision. No reliance may be placed for any purpose whatsoever on the information contained in this document or on assumptions made as to its completeness. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is given by the Company, its subsidiaries or any of their respective advisers, officers, employees or agents, as to the accuracy of the information or opinions or for any loss howsoever arising, directly or indirectly, from any use of this presentation or its contents. This document is for distribution only in the United Kingdom and the presentation is being made only in the United Kingdom to persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments falling within Article 19(1) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005 (the “Order”) or high net worth entities, and other persons to whom it may otherwise lawfully be communicated, falling within Article 49(2) of the Order (all such persons together being referred to as “relevant persons”). Any person who is not a relevant person should not act or rely on this presentation or any of its contents. The distribution of this document in other jurisdictions may be restricted by law and any person into whose possession this document comes should inform themselves about, and observe, any such restrictions. This document may include forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements include matters that are not historical facts or statements regarding the Company’s intentions, beliefs or current expectations concerning, among other things, the Company’s results of operations, financial condition, liquidity, prospects, growth, strategies, and the industry in which the Company operates. By their nature, forwarding-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties because they relate to events and depend on circumstances that may or may not occur in the future. The Company cautions you that forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and that the Company’s actual results of operations, financial condition and liquidity and the development of the industry in which the Company operates may differ materially from those made in or suggested by the forward-looking statements contained in this document. In addition, even if the Company’s results of operations, financial condition and liquidity and the development of the industry in which the Company operates are consistent with the forward-looking statements contained in this document, those results or developments may not be indicative of results or developments in future periods. The Company does not undertake any obligation to review or confirm analysts’ expectations or estimates or to update any forward-looking statements to reflect events that occur or circumstances that arise after the date of this presentation. By attending this presentation you agree to be bound by the foregoing terms.

DISCLAIMER

2

Page 3: Conference call presentation with ceo and cfo 3 q 2012 us gaap

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

1.1

1.2

Jan-1

1

Mar-1

1

May-1

1

Jul-1

1

Sep

-11

No

v-11

Jan-1

2

Mar-1

2

May-1

2

Jul-1

2

Sep

-12

Inventories Germany

Inventories China

Inventories U.S.$100

$300

$500

$700

$900

$1,100

Jan-1

1

Mar-1

1

May-1

1

Jul-1

1

Sep

-11

No

v-11

Jan-1

2

Mar-1

2

May-1

2

Jul-1

2

Sep

-12

HRC, CIS export, FOB

HRC U.S. domestic prices, FOB

HRC, Europe domestic prices, EXW

INTERNATIONAL MARKETS

3

STEELMAKING CAPACITIES UTILISTION

FLAT STEEL PRICES BY REGION

$/ metric tonne

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Jan-0

8M

ar-08

May-0

8Ju

l-08

Sep

-08

No

v-08

Jan-0

9M

ar-09

May-0

9Ju

l-09

Sep

-09

No

v-09

Jan-1

0M

ar-10

May-1

0Ju

l-10

Sep

-10

No

v-10

Jan-1

1M

ar-11

May-1

1Ju

l-11

Sep

-11

No

v-11

Jan-1

2M

ar-12

May-1

2Ju

l-12

Sep

-12

China North America Europe

Quarterly dynamics adjusted for

production/ sales cycle

Index, January 2011 = 1

DEMAND

• Weaker demand on major markets

• Global run rates declined

PRICES

• Raw materials prices under pressure from lower steel

capacity utilization

• Steel prices continued to decline across all regions

with Russia being less impacted

INVENTORIES

• Steel stock remain low in developed economies

• Sizable decline in Chinese inventories

Source: Steel Business Briefing

STEEL INVENTORIES

Sources: CRU, Bloomberg (China statistic, Metals Service Center Inst.)

Source: World Steel Association

Page 4: Conference call presentation with ceo and cfo 3 q 2012 us gaap

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

Jan

-08

May

-08

Sep

-08

Jan

-09

May

-09

Sep

-09

Jan

-10

May

-10

Sep

-10

Jan

-11

May

-11

Sep

-11

Jan

-12

May

-12

Sep

-12

20% 17%

29%

24%

39%

100%

~70%

19% ~20%

Cru

de steel

pro

du

ction

HR

C

CR

C

Galvan

ised

Pre-p

ainte

d

Transfo

rmer

Dyn

amo

Reb

ar

Metallw

are

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

1,100

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

Jan-1

1

Feb

-11

Mar-1

1

Ap

r-11

May-1

1

Jun

-11

Jul-1

1

Au

g-11

Sep

-11

Oct-1

1

No

v-11

Dec-1

1

Jan-1

2

Feb

-12

Mar-1

2

Ap

r-12

May-1

2

Jun

-12

Jul-1

2

Au

g-12

Sep

-12

Crude steel production Apparent steel useHRC price (r.h.) Rebar price (r.h.)

RUSSIAN MARKET

4

CRUDE STEEL PRODUCTION, STEEL USE AND PRICES

million t/month

DEMAND

• Stable on the back of economic growth. Apparent steel use increased by 5% in Q3

• Consumption by construction industry surpassed the peak of 2008

PRICES

• Flat steel prices for ordinary grades declined in line with global trends, value added remained stable

• The demand for long steel improved on the back of the increased activity in the construction sector

NLMK POSITION ON THE DOMESTIC MARKET

• Company’s share in steel production achieved 20%

• Leading positions in industries with sustainable demand

Production data for 9M 2012 Sources: Chermet, Metal-Expert, Company’s data

NLMK POSITIONS IN RUSSIAN MARKET STEEL DEMAND IN CONSTRUCTION

$/t

Sources: Rosstat, Company’s data

Sources: Metal-Expert, Metal Bulletin

ASU + 5%, q/q

million t/ month peak level of 2008

Page 5: Conference call presentation with ceo and cfo 3 q 2012 us gaap

94%

85%

99%

91%

86%

100%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120%

NLMK USA

NLMK LongSteel

Novolipetsk

Q3 2012 Q2 2012

PRODUCTION

5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

Q4 2011 Q1 2012 Q2 2012 Q3 2012 Q4 2012F

Steel segment Long products segment Foreign rolled products segment

3,2

3,6 3,8 3,8 ~3,7

million t

STABLE OUTPUT IN Q3 2012

• Novolipetsk (Steel segment) 3.076 m t

(-2% q-o-q)

• NLMK Long Steel 0.479 m t

(+3% q-o-q)

• Foreign rolled products segment 0.216 m t

(-13% q-o-q)

CAPACITY UTILIZATION 96%

• Novolipetsk (Steel segment) 100% (+1 p.p.)

• NLMK Long Steel 86% (+1 p.p.)

• Foreign rolled products segment 91% (-3 p.p.)

OUTLOOK

• Q4 ’12: 3.7 m t (-2 % q-o-q)

• 2012: 15 m t (+25% y-o-y)

CRUDE STEEL PRODUCTION, QUARTERLY

CAPACITY UTILIZATION

Page 6: Conference call presentation with ceo and cfo 3 q 2012 us gaap

1.06 1.10 1.20 1.26

0.56 0.83 0.75 0.64 0.34

0.38 0.33 0.27 0.50 0.63 0.61 0.49

0.83 0.63 0.55 0.73

0.26 0.30 0.37 0.43

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

Q4 2011 Q1 2012 Q2 2012 Q3 2012

Other regions Asia North America Middle East (incl. Turkey) EU Russia

SALES GEOGRAPHY

902 1,021 1,199 1,091

634 698

740 523

273 269

191 201

364 458

494

400

527 359

332

448

353 289 300

340

$0

$1,000

$2,000

$3,000

Q4 2011 Q1 2012 Q2 2012 Q3 2012

Russia EU

Middle East (incl. Turkey) North America

Asia Other regions

$ million

HIGHER SALES TO RUSSIAN MARKET

• +4% q-o-q beating absolute record level

GROWTH OF INTERNATIONAL SALES

• Lower demand from European and USA markets

offset by increased supplies to S.E. Asia and other

LOWER SLAB SUPPLIES TO OWN ROLLING ASSETS

• About 0.5 m t delivered in Q3 (-33% q/q) and 2 m t

in 9M 2012

6

SLABS SUPPLIES TO OWN ROLLING ASSETS

454 606 645

395

107 107

108

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

0

200

400

600

800

1000

Q4 2011 Q1 2012 Q2 2012 Q3 2012

NLMK Europe NLMK USA Share of total slabs sales

3,552 3,872 3,818

million t

3,053 3,094 3,257

3,002 (-7.8% q/q)

3,816

-9% q/q

+4% q/q

-2% q/q

-7% q/q

REVENUE BY REGION

SALES BY REGION

million t

Page 7: Conference call presentation with ceo and cfo 3 q 2012 us gaap

-20%

-13%

-13%

-7%

-6%

-5%

0%

2%

2%

14%

-30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20%

SALES STRUCTURE

7

Thick plates*

Dynamo

Galvanised

Long products

HRC

Transformer

CRC

Pre-painted

Metallware

Slabs

2% 4% 2% 2% 4% 6% 7% 9%

14% 13%

5% 9%

2%

2% 10% 8%

24% 22%

26% 15%

5% 2% 9%

Sales Revenue

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100% Revenue from otheroperations*Pig iron

Slabs

HRC

Long products

Metallware

Thick plates

CRC

Galvanised

Pre-painted

Dynamo

Transformer

0.82 1.03 0.97 0.91

1.26 1.34 1.37 1.27

0.33 0.39 0.47

0.44

1.15 1.11 1.00 1.18

0

1

2

3

4

Q4 2011 Q1 2012 Q2 2012 Q3 2012

Semi-finished Longs Flats value added Flats

STEEL PRODUCTS SALES CHANGE IN SALES STRUCTURE Q3/Q2

SALES AND REVENUE BY PRODUCT

million t

Value added

products

*Note: Revenue from other operations include revenues from sales of iron ore, coke, scrap and others

Ordinary products

CHANGE IN SALES MIX

• Growth in slabs sales to 3rd parties

• … as European subsidiaries decreased utilization rates

due to seasonality and overall demand weakness

• Thick plates lower q-o-q due to upgrade of rolling

operations at NLMK DanSteel

VALUE ADDED STEEL SALES AT 35% OF TOTAL

• Strong domestic demand supported value added sales

*Lower thick plates sales partially relates to the launch of new mill at NLMK DanSteel

Page 8: Conference call presentation with ceo and cfo 3 q 2012 us gaap

STRATEGIC DEVELOPMENTS

8

24% 19% 13% 18% 23%

76% 81% 87%

82% 77%

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012E

Maintenance capex Development Total investments

CAPEX

CAPEX BY SEGMENTS, 2012E

48%

16%

22%

13% Steel segment

Long productssegment

Mining segment

Foreign rolledproducts segment

$ million

GROWTH IN CRUDE STEEL CAPACITY

• Blast Furnace #7 / BOF 3.4 m tpa project

completed. Utilisation rates of the new capacities

are at maximum

• Improved steel quality, +30 new steel grades

• Kaluga mini mill (1.5 m tpa of long steel) to be

operation in 2013

FINISHED PRODUCTS OUTPUT GROWTH

• Growth in rolling capacity for value added products

• Improved quality of the existing (incl niche) products

(NLMK DanSteel rolling mill upgrade)

VERTICAL INTEGRATION

• Iron ore capacity growth with continued expansion

of Stoilensky

• Coke-chemical projects (PCI, tar pitch, etc.) to

reduce energy costs

• Expansion of scrap capacity

IMPROVED EFFICIENCY

• Growth of self-sufficiency and efficient use of energy

Page 9: Conference call presentation with ceo and cfo 3 q 2012 us gaap

HIGHLIGHTS

0.03 0.03

0.05

0.03

5.0% 5.6%

8.5%

5.6%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

$0.00

$0.01

$0.02

$0.03

$0.04

$0.05

Q4 2011 Q1 2012 Q2 2012 Q3 2012

Net income per share Net income margin (r.h.)

9

EPS

Q3 ‘12 FINANCIAL RESULTS

• Revenue $3,002 m (-8% q-o-q),

• EBITDA $483 m (-19%),

• EBITDA margin 16.1% (-2.2 p.p.),

• Net profit: $167 million (-40%),

• EPS $0,03,

• Operating cash flow: $684 m (+125%),

• CAPEX: $347 m (-23%),

• Net debt/EBITDA: 1.84

Q3 ‘12 OPERATING RESULTS

• Steel output: 3.772 m t (-2%),

• Steel sales: 3.816 m t (0%),

• Revenue/t: $787 (-8%),

• Slab cash cost at Lipetsk plant : $383 (-7%).

$/share

3.05 3.09 3.26

3.00

12% 14%

18%

16%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

20%

$2.0

$2.2

$2.4

$2.6

$2.8

$3.0

$3.2

$3.4

Q4 2011 Q1 2012 Q2 2012 Q3 2012

Revenue EBITDA margin (r.h.)

REVENUE AND EBITDA MARGIN

$ billion

Page 10: Conference call presentation with ceo and cfo 3 q 2012 us gaap

2,163 2,210 2,205 2,095

129 177 171 221

$0

$500

$1,000

$1,500

$2,000

$2,500

Q4 2011 Q1 2012 Q2 2012 Q3 2012

Production expenses Depreciation

Depreciation +29% q/q

PRODUCTION COSTS

10

CONSOLIDATED PRODUCTION COSTS Q3 2012

COST OF GOODS SOLD $ million

PRODUCTION COSTS DOWN BY 5%

• Impacted by lower prices for raw materials

• Strict control over operating expenses and overheads

• Lower consumption of pellets supplied by 3rd parties

• Slab cash cost decreased by 7% to $383/t.

DEPRECIATION

• Growth by 29% following growth in PPE

11%

18%

15%

4%

16%

7%

4%

0.8%

13%

12%

CASH COST FOR BOF STEEL GLOBALLY

$200

$250

$300

$350

$400

$450

$500

$550

$600

$650

1 8

15

22

29

36

43

50

57

64

71

78

85

92

99

10

6

11

3

12

0

12

7

13

4

14

1

Novolipetsk

100 mtpa 260 mtpa 500 mtpa 550 mtpa

$/t

Cumulative BOF capacities

Source: World Steel Dynamics. Data as of the end of 9M 2012

Prod. expenses -5% q/q

11%

18%

15%

4% 16%

7%

4% 0.8%

13%

12%

Iron ore

Coal / coke

Scrap

Ferroalloys

Materials

Electric energy

Natural gas

Other energy

Other costs

Labor

Page 11: Conference call presentation with ceo and cfo 3 q 2012 us gaap

PROFITABILITY EBITDA DYNAMICS

• In Q3 overall EBITDA declined mainly due to

weakening market environment

• A decline in steel prices outpaces the decline for raw

materials negatively contributing to the company’s

profitability

KEY FACTORS BEHIND EBITDA CHANGE

• Lower steel prices and change in the product mix was

partially compensated by the reduced production

costs

EBITDA CHANGE BY SEGMENT

596

-32

-57

+11

-57

+22

483

200

300

400

500

600

Q2

201

2

Stee

l seg

men

t

Fore

ign

ro

lled

pro

du

cts

segm

ent

Lon

g p

rod

uct

sse

gmen

t

Min

ing

segm

ent

Oth

er o

per

atio

ns

incl

inte

rseg

men

tal

Q3

201

2

$ million

12%

14%

18%

16%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

Q4 2011 Q1 2012 Q2 2012 Q3 2012

EBITDA MARGIN EBITDA: FACTOR ANALYSIS

596

-46

-140

+81

-8

483

200

300

400

500

600

700

Q2

20

12

Vo

lum

es a

nd

pro

du

ct m

ix

Pri

ces

Pro

du

ctio

nco

sts

Oth

ers

Q3

20

12

$ million

11

Page 12: Conference call presentation with ceo and cfo 3 q 2012 us gaap

CHANGE IN CASH

FX rate change

Dividends

FREE CASH FLOW TO THE FIRM

Other financial operations

Net loans

Purchase of property plant and equipment

OPERATING CASH FLOW

Profit tax

Other non cash operations

Working capital change

EBITDA

$ million

CASH FLOW

12

Q3’12 CASH BRIDGE

$ million

SIGNIFICANT CASH GROWTH

• Over $1bn of cash inflow in Q3

OPERATING CASH FLOW INCREASED

• $684 of cash from operation activities including

o $483 m EBITDA and

o $273 m from working capital changes

GROWTH IN CASH FROM FINANCIAL ACTIVITIES

• RUB bond (approximately US$320 million) and Euro

bond (US$500 million) placements.

DECREASE IN CAPEX

• -23% q-o-q to US$347 million

483

273

-9

-63

684

-347

+716

+4

1 057

-2

-21

1 034

Q3 2012 CASH INFLOW AS A RESULT OF WORKING CAPITAL MOVEMENTS

181

79 24 -11

273

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Decline inAccountsreceivable

Decline inInventories

Increase inAccountspayable

Other factors Q3 2012

Cash flow statement data

Page 13: Conference call presentation with ceo and cfo 3 q 2012 us gaap

46% 47%

13% 18%

40% 35%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Q2 2012 Q3 2012

RUR USD Euro

2.4 2.9

2.0

+0,9

-0,2

+0,4

2.4

$0

$1

$2

$3

$4

$5

$6

30 Jun 12 Debt raising Debtsettlements

FX rates andother factors

30 Sep 12

ST Debt LT Debt

DEBT DEBT POSITION

• Net debt $3.47 billion (-3%)

• Net debt / 12M EBITDA 1.84 (down from 1.9)

• Cash and equivalents1 $1.814 billion (+133%)

• Gross debt $5.28 billion (+22%)

DEBT MANAGEMENT

• In Q3 NLMK placed debut Eurobonds and additional

RUR notes totaling $883 million

• Average debt maturity extended to 2.7 years

RATING

• Investment grade rating (S&P, Moody’s, Fitch)

1. Cash and equivalents and ST deposits 2. As of 30.09.2012г. 3. Management accounts data

13

$ billion

CHANGE IN DEBT POSITION

CURRENCY OF THE DEBT AND REVENUE

Debt currency 2 Revenue currency3

40%

25%

35%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Q3 2012

3.0

2.5

2.7

2.2

2.4

2.6

2.8

3.0

3.2

Q1 2012 Q2 2012 Q3 2012

AVERAGE MATURITY AND NET DEBT/EBITDA2

Weighted average maturity period

Years 1.69

1.90

1.84

1.5

2.0

Q1 2012 Q2 2012 Q3 2012

Net debt/EBITDA

Page 14: Conference call presentation with ceo and cfo 3 q 2012 us gaap

$0

$500

$1,000

$1,500

$2,000

$2,500

2012 2013 2014 2015 and onward

PXF Ruble bonds ECA EBRD NLMK Europe Others Eurobonds (USD)

1,814 2,285

1,070

773

816

493

203

$0

$500

$1,000

$1,500

$2,000

$2,500

$3,000

$3,500

Liquidassets

Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13

14

LIQUID ASSETS AND ST DEBT MATURITY1

TOTAL DEBT MATURITY2

$ million

MATURITY

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

$0

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

Q4 2011 Q1 2012 Q2 2012 Q3 2012

Interest expense Interest expense to EBITDA (right hand)

$ million

$ million

DEBT MATURITY

• Substantial liquidity cushion and portfolio of

instruments for debt restructuring

• Short-term debt $2.43 billion

o Settlement of RUR three year notes in

Q4 2012

o Short term part of PXF

• Long term debt $2.85b illion

o incl. RUR notes and long term part of PXF, ECA

and liabilities of SIF

1. The ST maturity payments include interests accrued and bond coupon payments in 2012 2. The maturity payments do not include interests 3. Quarterly figures are derived by computational method based on reporting data for the 9M, 12M 2011 and for the 3M, 6M, 9M 2012.

Committed credit lines

Cash and equivalents

INTEREST EXPENSE3

Page 15: Conference call presentation with ceo and cfo 3 q 2012 us gaap

PRODUCTION OUTLOOK

• Q4 2012: steel output to be at 3.7 m t, -2% q-o-q

• 12M 2012: 15 m t, + 25% y-o-y

FINANCIALS

• Revenue will decline by 1-5% q-o-q mainly due to lower seasonal demand

MARKET OUTLOOK

• Steel prices hit the bottom in Q4 2012

• Lower seasonal activity for the overall steel sector in the end of the year

• 2013 steel demand is likely to remain weak with possible anemic growth as compared to 2012

15

OUTLOOK

Page 16: Conference call presentation with ceo and cfo 3 q 2012 us gaap

NLMK Investor relations Russia, 115054, Moscow

Bakhrushina str, 18, bldg 1

t. +7 495 915 15 75

f. +7 495 915 79 04

[email protected]

www.nlmk.com

16