Presentation OutlinePresentation Outline

Roberto F. de OcampoRoberto F. de Ocampo Former Sec. of Finance Former Sec. of Finance

Co-vice Chairman, Makati Business ClubCo-vice Chairman, Makati Business ClubArangkada Philippines Forum: “Moving Arangkada Philippines Forum: “Moving

Twice as Fast!” Twice as Fast!” Grand Ballroom, Marriot Hotel, Pasay CityGrand Ballroom, Marriot Hotel, Pasay City

9:25-9:45 AM, January 26, 20129:25-9:45 AM, January 26, 2012

Optimistic Start, Forecast 2010-2011 What We Actually Achieved: Economic Performance of

2011 How Did We Get Here? “Baby Steps” In 2011 Government Plans to Do Better Global Situation 2012 Growth Forecasts Moving Twice as Fast: Reforms And Recommendations

In the SWS November 2011 poll, 72 percent of Filipinos approved of Mr. Aquino’s performance while 74 percent trust him, while “less than one in 10 Filipinos [9 percent] is critical of and distrusts the President….

Original and Adjusted 2011 Forecasts

Financial Institution2011

Year EndGrowth Forecast

RevisedForecast

INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND 4.7 percent 3.7 percent

WORLD BANK 5 - 5.4 percent 4.2 percent

UN ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL COMMISSION FOR ASIA AND THE PACIFIC (UNESCAP) 5.2 percent

4.4 percent

CREDIT SUISSE 4.6 percent 4.3 percent

CITIGROUP 5.5 percent 4.8 percent

HSBC 5.2 percent 4.3 percent

AQUINO ADMINISTRATION 5 to 6 percent 4.5-5.5 percent

Table 1

5-6%RP GROWTH TARGET FOR 2012

SOURCE: BSP

Table 2

Comparative Annual GNP Comparative Annual GNP of Some ASIAN Countriesof Some ASIAN Countries

2008 - 20112008 - 2011

Table 3

Fiscal Performance Fiscal Performance January to November 2011 (In Billion Pesos)January to November 2011 (In Billion Pesos)

Table 4

Growth Per Industry

Value of Production

Table 5

Overseas Filipino Remittances *   

For the Periods Indicated      

In Million US dollars      

         

   

Growth Rate

Levels yr.-on-yr.

Monthly Cumulative Monthly Cumulative

2011        

Jan 1,476.90 1,476.90 7.6 7.6

Feb 1,500.90 2,977.80 6.2 6.9

Mar 1,616.50 4,594.40 4.1 5.9

Apr 1,615.90 6,210.30 6.3 6

May 1,688.20 7,898.50 6.9 6.2

Jun 1,737.30 9,635.80 7 6.3

Jul 1,715.30 11,351.10 6.1 6.3

Aug 1,670.10 13,021.20 11.1 6.9

Sept 1,735.60 14,756.80 8.4 7.1

Oct 1,777.20 16,534.00 6.2 7

Nov 1,783.30 18,317.30 10.6 7.3

Table 6

OFW Remittances

Remittances from overseas-based Filipinos have risen despite weak economic performance of big labor markets led by the United States and Eurozone economies.

Remittances surged to 8.4 percent in September to $1.74 billion from $1.6 billion a year ago on continued strong demand for Filipino workers in various parts of the globe. This brought the total remittances in the first nine months of 2011 to $14.76 billion, up 7.1 percent from $13.78 billion in the same period last year. BSP officials said the remittances as of September indicated that the total for the year could even surpass the projection of $20.1 billion, a growth of 7 percent from last year’s $18.8 billion. Officials said the sustained rise in remittances gave the country a chance to meet its economic growth (between 4.5 and 5.5 percent) target for the year despite the challenges from the external environment.

Foreign Reserves AsiaThe Region has 60 % of the world’s FOREX Reserves yet, the region is slowing under tighter domestic monetary conditions and weaker export demand from Europe and the US. The slowdown is expected to persist through mid-2012, before a stronger recovery takes hold in the second half of the year.

Other Economic Indicators

2012 Forecasts

(Source: International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook, September 2011.)

Table 7

2012 Global and Philippine Forecasts

Financial Institution 2012 Global Growth Forecast

2012 Philippine Growth Forecast

INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND 4.7 percent 4.2

WORLD BANK 2.5 percent 4.2 percent

UN ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL COMMISSION FOR ASIA AND THE PACIFIC (UNESCAP)

5.2 percent

CREDIT SUISSE 4.6 percent 4.2 percent

CITIGROUP 2.5 percent

HSBC 5.2 percent 3.6 PERCENT

Table 8

2012 National Budget (in million pesos)

Table 9

Distribution of the 2012 Budget

“THANK YOU”