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Why the polemic that sets intuition against rationality is wrong and how do we use this insight to help us scale digital intelligence?
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Scaling Intelligence
Art + Science @ Scale March 5th, 2014 Digital Government Conference Jason Juma-Ross Lead Partner, Digital Intelligence @ideasoc
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An unhelpful debate
2
PwC
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The optimizer’s curse
Source: Smith & Winkler (2006)
Distribution of each value estimate
Distribution of maximum value estimates
A decision-maker who consistently chooses alternatives based on her estimated values should expect to be disappointed on average, even if the individual value estimates are conditionally unbiased.
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Removing the constraints
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Linear combination = constraint imposition
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Analysis
PowerPoint
Presentation
Debate
Inaction
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Three modes of decision-making
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Thinking like a fighter pilot
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Sense Orient Decide Act
• Instrumentation • Sensors • Direct feedback
Faster, cheaper
• Actuators • Automated operations
Intelligent Agent
Wetware
IFTT
Machine
PwC
Visualisation: data | wetware
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If this then that: rule based mode
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Machine leaning mode
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15
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WETWARE IFTT MACHINE MACHINE
In real applications, all three modes get combined Example: social network analysis
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NoSQL Sentiment Mining SQL
CRM
DMP
Dash-boards
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Artificial intelligence isn’t