CONSULTING ASSIGNMENT 2014 -2020

Compiled By: Ashutosh Pandey Page 1

Top 10 trends that will shape the telecom sector by 2020

Global Telecom industry will witness growth, a CAGR of 9.1 percent over the period 2012-2016. Top key

factors contributing to the market growth is unlimited demand for bandwidth in wireless networks. Global

Telecom industry will also be witnessing an increased preference for greener technology. Currently, there

are 4.6 billion mobile users globally, and 1.7 billion Internet. Researchers forecast that by 2020, the

number of mobile users will reach 6 billion and the number of people accessing the Internet will reach 4.7

billion—primarily through their mobile devices. The average person in 2020 will live in a web of 200 to 300

contacts, maintained daily through a variety of channels.

By the year 2020, an entire generation will have grown up in a primarily digital world. Computers, the

Internet, mobile phones, texting, social networking—all will be second nature to them. And their

familiarity with technology, reliance on mobile communications, and desire to remain in contact with large

networks of family members, friends, business contacts, and others will transform how we work and how

we consume. This is the demographic group we call Generation C—the “C” stands for connect,

communicate, change. Year 2020 will witness more than half of employees at bigger corporations will

work on virtual project groups. Based on the market analysis and researchers predication below Top 10

trends will going to shape the telecom sector by 2020:

1. Rise of Cloud Services: Cloud-based offerings from telecom operators and ICT providers will grow in future. Cloud Computing

market size is expected to grow by $241B by 2020. Decentralized computing, requires flexible, reliable and

secure connectivity solutions else “No cloud without a network”.

Impact of Cloud Services:

Low-power processors and cheaper clouds- By 2020 it's likely that low-power chips will be everywhere. And it won't just be ARM — Intel, aware of the threat, is working hard on driving down the power used by its Atom chips.

Faster interconnects: The twinned needs of massively distributed applications and a rise in the core count of high-end processors will converge to bring super-fast interconnects into the datacenter.

Datacenters become ecosystems: Cloud datacenters will "become much like a breathing and living organism with different states"

Clouds consolidation and the generational shift

2. Will you be able to identify your Smartphone in 2020?

Smartphone will become more convenient and increase human dependency like Google have introduced a

concept of car becoming the ultimate mobile device,” Smartphone apps will appear on vehicle-mounted

controls, making them easier to use while driving. This integration is based Bluetooth device to help the

Smartphone interact with the car radio to display apps on a dashboard screen and a lot to be added like in-car

innovations, cars will rely on computers to improve efficiency and safety. Going forward future car buyers will

be more concerned about car connectivity and onboard processing power than about brake horse power

(BHP) or torque.

CONSULTING ASSIGNMENT 2014 -2020

Compiled By: Ashutosh Pandey Page 2

Below are hardware features like display, camera, battery, design & screen.

Display: Features like auto-brightness adjustments will soon be introduced, but most of the handsets fail

to deliver a smooth auto-transition in different lighting conditions. By 2020 your Smartphones will have

feature called “Trans-flexive” display. Researchers are already working to breakthrough technology that is

capable of reflecting ambient rays, which has the capacity of showing sharp and neat images even in

bright sunshine.

Camera: We have become habitual of slow zoom-in, late focus, and bad image quality under varying light

conditions. Even the best selling smart devices have not come up with any solution. But, By 2020

Researchers predicting that the smartphones camera will behave almost like your eyes – will focus in real

time, will be able to track objects, and will automatically adjust to different lights!

Battery: We want our devices to stay with us as our safeguard and always alive but unfortunately the best

selling devices battery also last for not more than a week on minimum usage. Technology to improve the

battery life is already found like: Li-Ion micro-battery technology. An extension this technology is found at-

least a 1000 more durable than its contemporary counterpart.

Design: Your phone might not be the same rectangular box made of metal or plastic in 2020. Wearables

are going to be an integral part of our everyday life in seven years from now. These wearables will be

directly controlled by your smartphones, which will make them seem as 2-piece systems: The CPU will be a

small piece which you will wear in from of a shoe, belt or something else. Then there will be screens, in

form of glasses, watches or car-displays.

3. Wireless Network Infrastructure 2020:

It will be driven by the thriving ecosystem, in coming 6 years, TD-LTE infrastructure investments on macrocell

and small cell equipment are expected to grow at a CAGR of 15% and eventually reaching $13 Billion by the

end of 2020.

Subscription of TD-LTE is expected to reach nearly 1 Billion and will be accountable for over $230 Billion in

service revenues. Late 2014 will be witnessing large scale commercialization of TD-LTE capable smartphones

and its shipments will surpass 100 Million alone. Driving forces are the recent and upcoming TD-LTE

Smartphone launches, utilizing 3.5 GHz and above TDD spectrum bands. This will result in improvement of

network performance and will surely going to help operators in leveraging new technologies such as LTE

Hotspot Improvements (LTE-Hi).

CONSULTING ASSIGNMENT 2014 -2020

Compiled By: Ashutosh Pandey Page 3

4. Mobile traffic forecasts 2010-2020:

Worldwide mobile traffic is expected to reach more than 127 EB by 2020, representing a 33 times increase

compared with 2010. From 2010 to 2020, total daily mobile traffic in the representative Western European

country will grow 67 times from 186 TB to 12540 TB. Well, it may lead to network congestion. But, Operator

will have a range of options having a significant impact on CAPEX. They will also need to adapt backhauling

capacity (FTTx, new microwave links…) and should opt for Traffic prioritization along with improved Radio

Access Network.

5. Mobile M2M:

M2M Industry to hit $4.5T by 2020. M2M technology is beneficial in many ways and is applicable to a number

of industries and technologies. The most frequent examples include automotive safety — such as sending out

a distress signal at the moment a car impacts another car or object with GPS coordinates. The same

possibilities in healthcare and in other sectors are equally helpful. M2M industry in India has the potential to

reach $100 million by 2016.

M2M works as remedy for the basic challenges faced by India in terms of lack of infrastructure for healthcare,

education, banking etc. It could bring about radical change in the traffic congestion, accidents, emergency

services, payments systems, & ticketing etc.

6. Telco 2.0 New Business Models:

It describes the six growth opportunity areas for the Telecoms industry, identifies new categories of

operators, benchmarks the primary strategies needed by each to evolve and thrive in the new industry

environment and also highlights leading examples of Telco business model innovation.

Telco 2.0 is building their strategic plans and some have already begun to communicate these with the

investors. But there struggle with the harsh realities of the seismic shift from being predominantly voice-

centric to data-centric businesses, Telco’s are:

Facing rapid changing consumer behaviors’ and powerful new types of competitors;

Investing heavily in infrastructure, without a clear payback;

Operating under less benign regulatory environments, which constrain their actions;

Being milked for dividends by shareholders, unable to invest in innovation.

Telco 2.0 Business Models describe the transformational path the telecoms industry needs to take to carve

out a more valuable role in the evolving ‘digital economy’. Telco 2.0 Opportunity Framework’ for planning

revenue growth, Telco innovation processes different types of telco’s in different markets and emphasize

on following best practice of business model innovation.

CONSULTING ASSIGNMENT 2014 -2020

Compiled By: Ashutosh Pandey Page 4

The 'Roadmap' Report Builds on Telco 2.0's Original 'Two-Sided' Telecoms Business Model

7. The Telecom Consumer in 2020:

Rapid progress in the affordability and accessibility of technology will reshape the telecom consumer by 2020.

Advancing telecom technologies will impact consumer behaviour in various ways like:

Consumer lifestyle will be impacted by greater affordability of information and communications technology

(ICT) goods and rising awareness like Google Glass and Toshiba digital mirror. It will be reflected through

"smart homes", households that are integrated with ICT, becoming relatively common by 2020, while

handheld devices will incorporate more tools, such as bank cards and car/house keys. By 2020 the majority of

the global population (55.9%) will continue to remain offline, unassisted by a rapidly growing income

inequality globally that is creating a wide digital divide across the socioeconomic spectrum, excluding low-

income homes from opportunities in the uptake of telecom goods and services.

8. Enterprise Mobility Will Become $140 Billion Market by 2020:

The Enterprise ready App Market is expected to become as big as the Internet by 2020. Later in this year we

will see global mobile application download have growth reaching up to 18.7 billion. National Association of

Software and Services Companies (Nasscom) released a report that predicts the global enterprise mobility

market will rake in $140 billion a year by 2020. This means 15% annual growth in revenue for the next seven

years. The report suggests that the existing spend by enterprises on mobility will grow to 10-12% of the total

IT spend by 2020. Right now, that figure is less than 5%.

CONSULTING ASSIGNMENT 2014 -2020

Compiled By: Ashutosh Pandey Page 5

Impact of Enterprise Mobility will increase where in mobile wallet market is expected to reach $5,250 billion by

the end of 2020, growing at a CAGR (compounded annual growth rate) of 127.5% from 2013 to 2020. The

global mobile wallet market has been segmented into applications like: mode of payment, stakeholders and

geography. The global mobile wallet applications market includes mobile commerce, mobile ticketing, mobile

coupons, mobile transfer, and micropayments. On the basis of mode of payment, the global mobile wallet

market is categorized into remote and NFC payments.

9. Big Data:

IDC Researcher’s forecasted that the revenues for big data technology infrastructure to grow by 40% per

annum for the next three years. It grew to 1.8 zettabytes in 2011 and will reach 35zettabytes by 2020. It

means ten-fold increase over the last five years and an astounding 29-fold increase over the next ten years. By

end of this year, the world’s digital information is expected to grow by 57%. Out of which the internet traffic

will grow by 35% and mobile data traffic will go up to 110%.

Impact:

Unstructured data: Unstructured data is expensive to analyze raising the costs of analysis. In coming years more emphasis will be on using Classification Data type.

Open source: Proprietary database standards are giving way to new, open source big data technology platforms such as Hadoop. In this, Databases barriers to entry may remain low for some time, but; easy and cheap to analyze structured data XML data.

Cloud: Many corporations are opting to use cloud services to access big data Data warehouses Enterprise systems analytical tools instead of building expensive data warehouses themselves. More money in big data will be made from selling Social media hybrid cloud-based services rather than selling big databases: Voice, music & video Unstructured

M2M: In future, a growing proportion of big data will be generated from Difficult or expensive to analyze data Documents Email machine to machine (M2M) using sensors. M2M data, much of which is business-critical and time-sensitive, could give telecom operators a way to profit from the big data boom

10. Emphasis of manufacturing base in India by 2020:

Global Telecom Equipment Scenario: A $290 Bn industry- one of the top high-tech Industry. Out of which India

consumed nearly Rs 54,000 cr of equipment last FY. Majority of network infrastructure equipment is imported &

handset production has moved up in last few years.

Impact on Indian Market: To become global leaders, focus should be on building Indian Products, Build global

economies of scale in manufacturing & Create strong sales push in India as well as internationally

CONSULTING ASSIGNMENT 2014 -2020

Compiled By: Ashutosh Pandey Page 6

ANNEXURE:

1. http://www.cdot.com/tsic.pdf

2. http://iesaonline.org/presentations/Sanjay_Nayak.pdf

3. http://ovum.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/10/Nov09.pdf

4. http://www.deloitte.com/assets/Dcom-BruneiDarussalam/Local%20Assets/Documents/TMT%20Predictions%202013.pdf

5. http://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/Deloitte/dk/Documents/technology-media-telecommunications/M2M.pdf

6. http://www.ict-befemto.eu/fileadmin/documents/publications/workshop_2011/F._PUJOL_IDATE_15_05_2011.pdf

7. http://h22154.www2.hp.com/road/

8. Referred Websites: Google, TRAI, C-DOT, Cyber Media Research, Booz&Co, Deloitte, KPMG, AT Kearney, Wikipedia

9. IDC Report Worldwide Big Data