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Talk by Gabriel Laporta on the 1st Symposium of Big Data and Public Health, 2013
Citation preview
Outline Background Results and Discussion Conclusion Final Remarks
Biodiversity Can Help Prevent MalariaOutbreaks in Tropical Forests
Gabriel Laporta1, Paulo Prado2, Roberto Kraenkel3, RenatoCoutinho3, Anice Sallum1
1Department of Epidemiology, FSP-USP2Department of Ecology, IB-USP
3Institute of Theoretical Physics, UNESP
October 25, 2013
Laporta et al., 2013 Funding: Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa no Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)
Biodiversity Can Help Prevent Malaria Outbreaks in Tropical Forests
Outline Background Results and Discussion Conclusion Final Remarks
Biodiversity Can Help Prevent Malaria Outbreaks inTropical ForestsGabriel Zorello Laporta1*, Paulo Inacio Knegt Lopez de Prado2, Roberto Andre Kraenkel3, Renato
Mendes Coutinho3, Maria Anice Mureb Sallum1
1 Departamento de Epidemiologia, Faculdade de Saude Publica, Universidade de Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo, Brazil, 2 Departamento de Ecologia, Instituto de
Biociencias, Universidade de Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo, Brazil, 3 Instituto de Fısica Teorica, Universidade Estadual Paulista Julio de Mesquita Filho, Sao Paulo, Sao
Paulo, Brazil
Abstract
Background: Plasmodium vivax is a widely distributed, neglected parasite that can cause malaria and death in tropical areas.It is associated with an estimated 80–300 million cases of malaria worldwide. Brazilian tropical rain forests encompass host-and vector-rich communities, in which two hypothetical mechanisms could play a role in the dynamics of malariatransmission. The first mechanism is the dilution effect caused by presence of wild warm-blooded animals, which can act asdead-end hosts to Plasmodium parasites. The second is diffuse mosquito vector competition, in which vector and non-vector mosquito species compete for blood feeding upon a defensive host. Considering that the World Health OrganizationMalaria Eradication Research Agenda calls for novel strategies to eliminate malaria transmission locally, we usedmathematical modeling to assess those two mechanisms in a pristine tropical rain forest, where the primary vector ispresent but malaria is absent.
Methodology/Principal Findings: The Ross–Macdonald model and a biodiversity-oriented model were parameterized usingnewly collected data and data from the literature. The basic reproduction number (R0) estimated employing Ross–Macdonald model indicated that malaria cases occur in the study location. However, no malaria cases have been reportedsince 1980. In contrast, the biodiversity-oriented model corroborated the absence of malaria transmission. In addition, thediffuse competition mechanism was negatively correlated with the risk of malaria transmission, which suggests a protectiveeffect provided by the forest ecosystem. There is a non-linear, unimodal correlation between the mechanism of dead-endtransmission of parasites and the risk of malaria transmission, suggesting a protective effect only under certaincircumstances (e.g., a high abundance of wild warm-blooded animals).
Conclusions/Significance: To achieve biological conservation and to eliminate Plasmodium parasites in human populations,the World Health Organization Malaria Eradication Research Agenda should take biodiversity issues into consideration.
Citation: Laporta GZ, Prado PIKLd, Kraenkel RA, Coutinho RM, Sallum MAM (2013) Biodiversity Can Help Prevent Malaria Outbreaks in Tropical Forests. PLoS NeglTrop Dis 7(3): e2139. doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0002139
Editor: Edwin Michael, University of Notre Dame, United States of America
Received May 4, 2012; Accepted February 12, 2013; Published March 21, 2013
Copyright: � 2013 Laporta et al. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permitsunrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
Funding: MAMS received financial support from Fundacao de Amparo a Pesquisa no Estado de Sao Paulo (process n. 05/53973-0). GZL is a recipient of a FAPESPpostdoctoral fellowship n. 2012/09939-5. RMC is a recipient of a FAPESP doctorate fellowship n. 2010/09464-1. The funders had no role in study design, datacollection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.
Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.
* E-mail: [email protected]
Introduction
The dynamics of malaria transmission involve a tritrophic
interaction among vector mosquitoes (Anopheles species), protozoan
parasites (Plasmodium species), and vertebrate hosts. Malaria is
endemic in tropical and subtropical regions [1–3]. The Global
Malaria Eradication Program adopted in the 1950s has failed to
meet expectations for malaria control in tropical and subtropical
countries. One of the causes of that failure was the lack of an in-
depth knowledge of the ecology of malaria-parasite transmission
[4]. In addition, Plasmodium vivax malaria has been neglected as a
chronic disease [5].
The prevalence of malaria remains high, especially in Africa,
the Americas, Asia, and the western Pacific. In those regions
collectively, the prevalence was 2% in 2011, most cases occurring
in children [6]. Recently, Murray et al. suggested that, although
malaria mortality rates have remained stable worldwide, the
World Health Organization underestimated malaria mortality for
the last two decades, purporting that the number of deaths from
malaria among adults in Africa, as well as among adults and
children outside of Africa, was substantially higher than that
reported [7]. Because of the suffering caused for malaria to
humans mainly in developing countries, elimination of this disease
is a challenge for the Malaria Eradication Research Agenda [8].
According to the World Health Organization agenda for vector
control, there is an urgent need to identify key knowledge gaps in
vector ecology and biology [9]. Such knowledge will be important
to define strategies for mosquito control, as well as to reduce the
PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases | www.plosntds.org 1 March 2013 | Volume 7 | Issue 3 | e2139
Laporta et al., 2013 Funding: Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa no Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)
Biodiversity Can Help Prevent Malaria Outbreaks in Tropical Forests
Outline Background Results and Discussion Conclusion Final Remarks
Outline
1 Background
2 Results and Discussion
3 Conclusion
4 Final Remarks
Laporta et al., 2013 Funding: Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa no Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)
Biodiversity Can Help Prevent Malaria Outbreaks in Tropical Forests
Outline Background Results and Discussion Conclusion Final Remarks
Background
Epidemiological Background:Plasmodium vivax is a widely distributed and neglectedparasite.
It is associated with an estimated 80–300 million cases ofmalaria worldwide.
Laporta et al., 2013 Funding: Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa no Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)
Biodiversity Can Help Prevent Malaria Outbreaks in Tropical Forests
Outline Background Results and Discussion Conclusion Final Remarks
Background
Epidemiological Background:Plasmodium vivax is a widely distributed and neglectedparasite.It is associated with an estimated 80–300 million cases ofmalaria worldwide.
Laporta et al., 2013 Funding: Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa no Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)
Biodiversity Can Help Prevent Malaria Outbreaks in Tropical Forests
Outline Background Results and Discussion Conclusion Final Remarks
Background
Ecological Background:Tropical rain forests encompass host- and vector-richcommunities, in which two hypothetical mechanisms play arole in the dynamics of malaria transmission.
The first mechanism is the dilution effect caused bypresence of wild warm-blooded animals, which can act asdead-end hosts to Plasmodium parasites.The second is diffuse mosquito vector competition, in whichvector and non-vector mosquito species compete for bloodfeeding upon a defensive host.
Laporta et al., 2013 Funding: Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa no Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)
Biodiversity Can Help Prevent Malaria Outbreaks in Tropical Forests
Outline Background Results and Discussion Conclusion Final Remarks
Background
Ecological Background:Tropical rain forests encompass host- and vector-richcommunities, in which two hypothetical mechanisms play arole in the dynamics of malaria transmission.
The first mechanism is the dilution effect caused bypresence of wild warm-blooded animals, which can act asdead-end hosts to Plasmodium parasites.
The second is diffuse mosquito vector competition, in whichvector and non-vector mosquito species compete for bloodfeeding upon a defensive host.
Laporta et al., 2013 Funding: Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa no Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)
Biodiversity Can Help Prevent Malaria Outbreaks in Tropical Forests
Outline Background Results and Discussion Conclusion Final Remarks
Background
Ecological Background:Tropical rain forests encompass host- and vector-richcommunities, in which two hypothetical mechanisms play arole in the dynamics of malaria transmission.
The first mechanism is the dilution effect caused bypresence of wild warm-blooded animals, which can act asdead-end hosts to Plasmodium parasites.The second is diffuse mosquito vector competition, in whichvector and non-vector mosquito species compete for bloodfeeding upon a defensive host.
Laporta et al., 2013 Funding: Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa no Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)
Biodiversity Can Help Prevent Malaria Outbreaks in Tropical Forests
Outline Background Results and Discussion Conclusion Final Remarks
Main goal
We used mathematical modeling to assess those twomechanisms in a pristine tropical rain forest, where theprimary vector is present but malaria is absent.
Laporta et al., 2013 Funding: Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa no Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)
Biodiversity Can Help Prevent Malaria Outbreaks in Tropical Forests
Outline Background Results and Discussion Conclusion Final Remarks
The Study System
Laporta et al., 2013 Funding: Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa no Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)
Biodiversity Can Help Prevent Malaria Outbreaks in Tropical Forests
Outline Background Results and Discussion Conclusion Final Remarks
Outline
1 Background
2 Results and Discussion
3 Conclusion
4 Final Remarks
Laporta et al., 2013 Funding: Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa no Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)
Biodiversity Can Help Prevent Malaria Outbreaks in Tropical Forests
Outline Background Results and Discussion Conclusion Final Remarks
What have we done?
The Ross–Macdonald model and a biodiversity-orientedmodel were parameterized using newly collected data anddata from the literature.
Laporta et al., 2013 Funding: Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa no Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)
Biodiversity Can Help Prevent Malaria Outbreaks in Tropical Forests
Outline Background Results and Discussion Conclusion Final Remarks
Ross-Macdonald model: null weak interactions
dXh
dt= −bThmXhYm
N+ γYh (1)
dYh
dt=
bThmXhYm
N− γYh (2)
dXm
dt= µYm − bTmhXmYh
N(3)
dYm
dt=
bTmhXmYh
N− µYm (4)
Laporta et al., 2013 Funding: Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa no Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)
Biodiversity Can Help Prevent Malaria Outbreaks in Tropical Forests
Outline Background Results and Discussion Conclusion Final Remarks
Biodiversity-oriented model: ecological interactions
dXh
dt= − bThmXhYm
(B + N)(
1 + 1h
C+MB+N
) + γYh (5)
dYh
dt=
bThmXhYm
(B + N)(
1 + 1h
C+MB+N
) − γYh (6)
dXm
dt=
αbM1 + 1
hC+MB+N
− µXm − bTmhXmYh
(B + N)(
1 + 1h
C+MB+N
) (7)
dYm
dt=
bTmhXmYh
(B + N)(
1 + 1h
C+MB+N
) − µYm , (8)
Laporta et al., 2013 Funding: Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa no Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)
Biodiversity Can Help Prevent Malaria Outbreaks in Tropical Forests
Outline Background Results and Discussion Conclusion Final Remarks
Main results
The basic reproduction number (R0; 2.18) estimatedemploying Ross–Macdonald model indicated that malariacases occur in the study location.
However, no malaria cases have been reported since1980.In contrast, the biodiversity-oriented model corroboratedthe absence of malaria transmission (R0; 0.93).
Laporta et al., 2013 Funding: Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa no Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)
Biodiversity Can Help Prevent Malaria Outbreaks in Tropical Forests
Outline Background Results and Discussion Conclusion Final Remarks
Main results
The basic reproduction number (R0; 2.18) estimatedemploying Ross–Macdonald model indicated that malariacases occur in the study location.However, no malaria cases have been reported since1980.
In contrast, the biodiversity-oriented model corroboratedthe absence of malaria transmission (R0; 0.93).
Laporta et al., 2013 Funding: Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa no Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)
Biodiversity Can Help Prevent Malaria Outbreaks in Tropical Forests
Outline Background Results and Discussion Conclusion Final Remarks
Main results
The basic reproduction number (R0; 2.18) estimatedemploying Ross–Macdonald model indicated that malariacases occur in the study location.However, no malaria cases have been reported since1980.In contrast, the biodiversity-oriented model corroboratedthe absence of malaria transmission (R0; 0.93).
Laporta et al., 2013 Funding: Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa no Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)
Biodiversity Can Help Prevent Malaria Outbreaks in Tropical Forests
Outline Background Results and Discussion Conclusion Final Remarks
Dilution effect and diffuse competitionSomatory of weak interactions can modulate the dynamics of malarial transmission
Laporta et al., 2013 Funding: Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa no Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)
Biodiversity Can Help Prevent Malaria Outbreaks in Tropical Forests
Outline Background Results and Discussion Conclusion Final Remarks
The diffuse competition mechanism was negativelycorrelated with the risk of malaria transmission
0 200 400 600 800Human population size (N)
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
Abundance
of
non-v
ect
ors
(C
)
0.39
0.00
0.15
0.30
0.45
0.60
0.75
0.90
1.05
1.20
1.35
1.50
R0
Laporta et al., 2013 Funding: Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa no Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)
Biodiversity Can Help Prevent Malaria Outbreaks in Tropical Forests
Outline Background Results and Discussion Conclusion Final Remarks
There is a non-linear, unimodal correlation betweenthe mechanism of dead-end transmission of parasitesand the risk of malaria transmission
0 200 400 600 800Human population size (N)
0
200
400
600
800
Abundance
of
non-h
ost
s (B
)
0.39
0.00
0.15
0.30
0.45
0.60
0.75
0.90
1.05
1.20
1.35
R0
Laporta et al., 2013 Funding: Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa no Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)
Biodiversity Can Help Prevent Malaria Outbreaks in Tropical Forests
Outline Background Results and Discussion Conclusion Final Remarks
Outline
1 Background
2 Results and Discussion
3 Conclusion
4 Final Remarks
Laporta et al., 2013 Funding: Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa no Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)
Biodiversity Can Help Prevent Malaria Outbreaks in Tropical Forests
Outline Background Results and Discussion Conclusion Final Remarks
To achieve biological conservation and to eliminatePlasmodium parasites in human populations, all malariaeradication programs should take biodiversity issues intoconsideration.
Laporta et al., 2013 Funding: Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa no Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)
Biodiversity Can Help Prevent Malaria Outbreaks in Tropical Forests
Outline Background Results and Discussion Conclusion Final Remarks
Outline
1 Background
2 Results and Discussion
3 Conclusion
4 Final Remarks
Laporta et al., 2013 Funding: Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa no Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)
Biodiversity Can Help Prevent Malaria Outbreaks in Tropical Forests
Outline Background Results and Discussion Conclusion Final Remarks
Big Data toolbox and approach can be also useful forhypothesis-driven scientific researches.
Big Data philosophy can create a new category of studydesign in Epidemiology.
Laporta et al., 2013 Funding: Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa no Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)
Biodiversity Can Help Prevent Malaria Outbreaks in Tropical Forests
Outline Background Results and Discussion Conclusion Final Remarks
Big Data toolbox and approach can be also useful forhypothesis-driven scientific researches.Big Data philosophy can create a new category of studydesign in Epidemiology.
Laporta et al., 2013 Funding: Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa no Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)
Biodiversity Can Help Prevent Malaria Outbreaks in Tropical Forests