Crowdsourced Health Predictions for 2015 (a free gift of wonder) Curated by Dr. Gautam Gulati

a gift of

Dear You,

To all those

who have insp

ired me over

the

years to do th

e unimaginab

le, the imposs

ible,

the unusual,

I give you yo

u a small toke

n of

appreciation t

o stir your sen

se of wonder

and

curiosity for t

he new year.

I hope you e

njoy it

and have a wo

nderful holida

y season!

Always #Think

Unusual.

Dr. Gautam Gu

lati

Speaker, Autho

r, + Founder, T

he Unusual Gr

oup

@drgautamgul

ati

www.weareun

usual.com

WONDER1st annual edition A crowdsourced flip book of the communitys wildest predictions for health in 2015.

free

December 2014 www.drgautamgulati.com

theunusualgroup.curated by

Wisdom begins in wonder.SOCRATES

theunusualgroup.www.weareunusual.com

As a professional speaker, author, entrepreneur and product innovator, I consider myself extremely lucky to be able to converse with some very interesting people that have helped to shape, steer, and twist my perspectives in unusual ways.

This past year, for whatever reason, I found myself in the middle of a number of pay it forward experiences that, quite frankly, made me feel good about myself. That feeling has inspired me to continue the tradition by giving the ultimate gift to the worldthe gift of wonder.

The new year always brings a renewed sense of hope and aspirations as we charter with wide-eyes into the unknown of what lies ahead. Health has always been a conundrum and mystery that even the brightest futurists scratch their heads when trying to unravel the predictions of a complex ecosystem.

Given this years excitement and generous participation from the community, it is my hope to be able to provide this gift to you each year, and perhaps even extend it beyond just health predictions.

I openly invite you all to join me in paying it forward and sharing this gift of wonder to the world.

With sincerest gratitude to all those who inspire me, Gautam @drgautamgulati

Speaker, Author, and Founder of The Unusual Group

www.drgautamgulati.com

WHY THE GIFT OF WONDER?

theunusualgroup.www.weareunusual.comwww.drgautamgulati.com

This is not a scientific analysis or prediction of the future by any means.

It is simply a fun odyssey into the minds of the community in an attempt to uncover what they believe will be the biggest transformational change in health for 2015.

The community was given 72 hours to respond to a simple question (see next page).

The community in this case includes those who are a part of my personal and extended social and professional network.

Answers were culled from a variety of channels including email, LinkedIn, Facebook, Twitter, Quora, and other forums.

Aside from occasional corrections in grammar & formatting, entries were untouched.

THE APPROACH

Our sincerest gratitude goes out to the everyday thinkers and doers who selflessly and joyfully contributed to this annual edition as a generous gift to the world.

You inspire us! Together, we can accomplish anything!

We asked a simple question to our networked community

What do you believe will be the single biggest transformational change in healthcare in 2015?

@drgautamgulati www.drgautamgulati.com

and this is what they said.


Negative innovation will accelerate delivering similar results for lower cost. 3rd party payers (and others) will preferentially publish risk-adjusted provider outcome data to their insured or interested parties together with tangible incentives for prospectively efficient choices.


Bruce Tizes, MD, JD Managing Member, Alpha Econometrics

@drgautamgulati

In the rhapsody of wearables, the dreams of big data and the appeal of apps, we forget that the fundamental power of technology lies in its ability to connect people to other people. The engaged, empowered, informed patient is a byproduct of this connection. I think in 2015 we will start to see the power of crowd-sourced health. We will start to see the power of connecting people in highly effective groups that can help fast-track research, treatment and cures.

Lynda Brown-Ganzert Founder & CEO, Curatio


The role of wearable devices (watches and bracelets) capable of measuring and transmitting biometrics will grow rapidly. These devices will become far more sophisticated than previously imagined. Although in the early stages, their potential will become evident by the end of 15.

Daniel Walker Human Capital Entrepreneur


We'll be closer to the patient being the center of his/her care. All physicians will know how to work in teams.

Margaret Cary, MD, MBA, MPH CEO, The Cary Group


In 2015 we'll see better doctor patient conversations. New home based tools for tracking and monitoring will make patient feedback even more valuable to doctors.

Paul Barnett CEO, Now What


The greatest transformations will occur because people developing digital tools and technologies will remember and act on two important concepts in 2015: context and convergence. Context means integrating technologies into the flow of people's lives and health journeys rather than air dropping them in and expecting the masses to develop new habits and adopting many different technologies. Convergence means focusing on new ways that data, devices, software and more can be used together to improve health, well-being and happiness.

Fard Johnmar Futurist & Founder, Enspektos


Given the focus on technology and the role it plays on improving patient outcomes, the conversation will change from what could work to improve patient care while driving down costs to a focus on case studies and programs that deliver results. Viable models will begin to surface to the top as the hypothetical becomes reality. In support of this, the role of marketing will evolve from delivering a message to delivering better outcomes with a solid ROI.

Jeff Rohwer Partner, Sentient


2015 will be the year of the wearable and integration into personal health that will energize patient engagement. The initial early adopters will be supplemented by broader groups who are either suffering from or at risk of chronic disease and need more support and engagement to help them transition to healthier lifestyles.

Nick van Terheyden, MD CMIO, Nuance Communications

@drnic1


I believe the biggest transformation in healthcare will be the Apple Watch, as it will be a device which will collect more data about ones health and daily activity. This will enable consumers to monitor and track health and lifestyle data.

Hari Nair Managing Partner, Aumkara Group


A shift in leadership style. We'll be moving into a more conscious and intuitive approach to health and wellbeing. Programs will become slightly more heart centered and compassionate. Cost-cutting and efficiencies will no longer pass as visionary.

Christine Kraft @ChristineKraft


1. Deep Learning tools will be married to Avatars for optimal personalized motivation and will contribute to the "behavioral symphony of wellness and mindfulness".

2. The dystopian vs eutopian debates over AI and the Singularity will intensify. Many years from now the debate will be structured within a formal dyadarity that respects and formalizes transparency into and values based debates over how to manage the machine side of the human computer interaction.

3. The question of "who owns your avatar and why do you care? (Mattison, 2009) will emerge more openly in the zeitgeist.

4. Consolidation and collaboration between pharma players will intensify as personalized medicine creates greater market segmentation, and smaller market share for individual drugs. Good news = faster innovation and execution. Bad news = more risk for publication bias and other forms of bias. Solution: greater transparency earlier in life cycle.

John Mattison, MD CMIO & Assistant Medical Director

Kaiser Permanente


People and Communities recognizing the tools for lasting change were there, within, all along.

Whitney Bowman-Zatzkin Access Our Medicine | Flip the Clinic


Retail pharmacy redefining itself as being in the business of health will be a disruptive innovation that will transform the industry in 2015. While traditional healthcare providers have struggled for years with changing patient behavior, these mega-retailers are MASTERS at shaping purchasing and other behaviors of customers. It wont be long before youre getting your MRI at CVS or Wal-Mart, forcing change in the traditional delivery system.

Laura Adams President & CEO, Rhode Island Quality Institute


Im optimistic. Development and mass production of an effective vaccine against Ebola.

Michael Golub, MD, FACP Chief Medical Officer, Digitas Health LifeBrands


It will be the acknowledgement that it is not simply what we eat thats important, but how we produce what we eat. How healthy soil gives us healthier food, reduces manmade carbon in our atmosphere, and improves the health of virtually all human inputs. The impact of this can help reduce disease and save hundreds of billions on healthcare costs.

Larry Kopald President & Chief Optimist, Kopald/Stranger


The greatest Healthcare transformation in 2015 will be the continued focus on building and investing in the skills and capabilities that will enable the US to improve population health.

Paulo Machado @pjmachado


2015 will be the year when the shift towards a more outcomes-based approach to physician and patient communications becomes tangible -- in unexpected ways. We will see multiple examples enter the marketplace from major companies (i.e. pharma and medical device companies) that historically have been committed primarily to direct brand promotion. This will be positive for patients, for Healthcare Professionals, and for the entire healthcare ecosystem, as "promotion" becomes more about "promoting wellness."

Bill Drummy Founder & CEO, Heartbeat Ideas


Old ways of doing business are gone; the market is morphing so quickly now that we are rapidly seeing the focus shift from paying for expensive acute episodic care to paying for prevention and maintenance of well care. The NCQA's PCMH programs are reaching a tipping point; approximately 25% of primary care practices have now achieved that recognition. I estimate that once it reaches 30%, that the medical home model will be viewed as the new standard of care, and those that have not achieved it will be 'sub-standard' and susceptible to pay cuts. Benefit design is driving patients to seek high performing and PCMH practices. Payers are still incentivizing P4P but we can expect to see more and more risk shifting to providers within the next couple of years through benefit design, ACO, PCMH and PCSP models. Meanwhile, new coding, such as CPT codes for 2015 moving from 'complex chronic care' to 'care management' and the advent of payment for general telemedicine will help to move practices into the care management business. And let's not forget about new disruptors in care delivery, such as UberHealth. In 2015 we are truly seeing healthcare moving into territory that has never been explored before.

Susanne Madden, MBA CEO, The Verden Group


I think we will move from big data to little actions. This will largely come from he early adoption of wearable technologies and the subsequent creation of filters of relevance. We will also begin to appreciate that healthcare is a people business in need of technology, not a technology business in need of people. This will be slow, like everything in healthcare.

Jordan Shlain, MD Founder & Chairman, HealthLoop

Physician, Private Medical @drshlain


Hospitals and health care systems will begin to plan for, design and implement a culinary medicine farm and garden--a new type of therapeutic landscape which feeds, inspires and educates all at the same time.

John La Puma, MD ChefMD & Founder, Chef Clinic Santa Barbara


Task shifting: Increased adoption of smarter clinical decision support applications to create an army of healthcare professionals and consumers that can diagnose and care for conditions previously only physicians could treat. This will improve affordability, accessibility and clinical outcomes at the same time as freeing up limited physician resources to focus on the conditions where their expertise can have the most impact.

Clive Pinder Director, Expert24


Patient-centered health information exchange coupled with further distancing from fee-for-service reimbursement. If implemented well, these changes have the power to drive meaningful change in cost and quality.

David Harlow Lawyer, Consultant, Speaker

The Harlow Group, LLC


Using technology to monitor health on-the-go will become more ubiquitous - but wearables will have to prove themselves as more than mere devices. The flood of information is increasing at an exponential rate, but were not seeing enough efforts to help people make sense of this data and turn it into action. To succeed in the new digital healthcare arena, companies will have to put customer experience and outcomes, interoperability, and actionable data front and centre.

Marie Ennis-OConnor Social Media Manager, Health 2.0 Dublin


Massive patient empowerment. Not just like when we said the "internet" would change everything, but for real. Little squares in our pockets with the answers to everything on them. Med Schools rethinking what education looks like when Kasparov has been defeated by Big Blue. Cats and dogs living together ;) total awesomeness.

Brendan Gallagher EVP, Experience Strategy & Innovation

Digitas Health


The spread of the "new staff model HMO" with work site clinics like Crossover Health and WeCare spreading outside one company and with Walmart and others giving consumers and smaller employers access to the combined primary care & online health model.

Matthew Holt Co-Chairman, Health 2.0

Founder, The Health Care Blog


Governments in mid-tier countries will also will start to realize that cost-cutting alone will not save their budgets, and will start to look towards waste-reduction and solid outcomes.

Alex Simidchiev People first health advocate; Digital Missionary


Telemedicine and digital health will continue to gain traction. Outliers like mental health and prison health will be on our radar- no quick fixes but we will include them in the conversation. Vendors will realize there is no such thing as a " smart" bed or EHR, so we can move forward with Interoperability and patient-centered Design. Ahh

Linda Stotsky


No major changes for 2015 unless we go to war (again) in which case single payer system will be implemented within 18 months vs. the expected 5 years. War unlikely under President Obama.

Elias Anaissie, MD Physician/Investigator/Consultant

HemeOnc; Infectious Diseases


Telemedicine will begin to talk off. It will start with clinics in Walmart, Rite Aid and CVS. So that ERs and Doctor offices will see less traffic. Patients with minor concerns will dial the phone to talk to a provider ( board certified) via a telemonitor to be diagnosed and treated. Rural areas hospitals without specialists will seek help in triage from teaching hospitals in urban areas.

Janet Kenney Group Life & Health Consultant


There won't be any transformational changes. We will continue to nibble around the edges unless there is a national emergency. It's not how Americans do healthcare policy.

Arlen Meyers, MD, MBA President & CEO, Society of Physician Entrepreneurs


Applying a new wellness and healthcare paradigm that takes into account the following 5Ps: Personalized, Preventive, Proactive, Positive Paradigm in which integrative wellness and healthcare will focus on people as individuals with BodyMindSpirit needs, and not as statistics of a large healthcare system.

Avigail Berg-Panitz Holistic & Integrative Therapist Founder, The Sound Well Corp.


Deploying technologies that assists individuals in addressing the crucial link between the health of the body and of the mind.

Robyn Hussa Farrell Founder & CEO, Mental Fitness, Inc.


People will take more responsibility for their health and be inspired to eat healthy, exercise, get enough rest and be mindful of their thoughts, which have power. They will also listen to their inner guidance when it comes to their healing, well being and health.

Lisa Tener Book Writing Coach, Speaker, Author, Workshop Leader


In 2015, healthcare will see the rapid and significant growth of two potentially competing forces patient care delivery: individualized patient care vs population health management.

Patients are becoming more informed, empowered and financially vested with their health. This is being fueled by easy and direct electronic access to medical records and physicians, the use of digital apps to capture longitudinal medical data (ie chronic disease management) and high deductible insurance plans.

On the competing end of the spectrum is the growing push to manage the health of populations on a macro level. The government-led overhaul in health insurance has led to a market-driven consolidation of hospital and physicians as well as development of health dashboards and more widespread implementation of ACOs.

How these competing forces are balanced in the trenches of patient care delivery will lead to the greatest transformation of healthcare in 2015.

Sanjay Daluvoy, MD Plastic & Reconstructive Surgeon. Specialists in Plastic Surgery

Founder & Executive Director, World Childrens Initiative


Prevention and treatment will become more patient-controlled and centric with greater and more usable access to omic" assessments, large open and closed data sets, and the marrying of EMRs with personal digital health data. This will further help patient segments and even individuals identify what works best for them.

Rosina Samadani Co-Founder & President, Docwise & Truth on Call


ICD-10 if Congress doesn't postpone it again. Tele-psychiatry.

Don Hall, MPH Principle, DeltaSigma

Strategic Healthcare Consultant


Big data has been around for years (Google search) and there have been some stories on life saving self - diagnosing. There are already trends that show that the human species has never been healthier as we are today. Watch Hans Rosling: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1FVzHLXbgew. Hopefully tech can make healthcare more efficient and lead to behaviour change.

Alexander Borve Founder & CEO, iDoc24


Adoption of mobile technologies at physician practices, thus fully leveraging existing tools to ensure a better patient-physician experience. Inertia is the biggest challenge.

Gabriela Perez SVP Strategy & Innovation, Best Doctors


First was EMR/EHR, now its Big Data! I say 2015 should be the year for "Meaningful Data" in Healthcare :) It's all about the patient. (healthcare isn't it?)

Suresh Kumar Sr. Projects Director, Velos


Transparency. We've had big data, we have EMR/EHR, we have new and faster (and cheaper) diagnostics, and new therapies with shorter courses, better efficacy, better safety, maybe a higher price tag. We have open payments data and can see influence or waste more clearly. I think now we'll see meaningful dialog when all the facts are laid out so that all stakeholders can see them.

Bryce Sady VP Product Development, P/S/L Group


The rise of "Little data," patient generated data taken by biometrics, activity sampling, and experience sampling between clinic visits.

Anthony Sterns CEO, iRx Reminder, LLC


MinuteClinic will become one of the largest PCPs in the country. Healthcare will look like retail, with continued consumer demand for technology to track, analyze, and deliver insights. We will see an increased emergence of a true end-to-end healthcare experience.

Mahek Shah, MD Founder & Managing Partner, Symplexi

Doctorpreneur


MORE INFORMATION:

With over 20 years of experience, I help leaders of both big and small organizations create transformative change in a world of uncertainty to help meet the future innovative demands of the health industry. Ive delivered over 200 inspirational and actionable keynotes for both private and public events on some of the worlds most prominent stage platforms including TEDxMidAtlantic, HxRefactored, Health 2.0, ReVive, Johns Hopkins, CIO Health, and many more to a diverse audience looking to effect change through transformational thinking and innovation.

My storytelling approach tends to be a bit unusual as I draw upon personal and professional experiences from a diverse range of perspectives. I truly believe everyone has hidden super powers within them, that if nurtured properly, can help transform our leaders into innovative superheroes.

In my whereabouts, I have been dubbed both a health hooligan and health artist for my unique abilities to see what others do not.

Oh, and Im super friendly. So lets talk.

ABOUT GAUTAMwww.drgautamgulati.com [email protected] @drgautamgulati

Would you like to receive weekly unusual perspectives delivered to your inbox? Subscribe to my blog!

www.drgautamgulati.com/thinkunusual/

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If you are not willing to risk the unusual, you will have to settle for the ordinary. JIM ROHN

unusual insights unusual experiences unusual studio

think discover make

ONE MISSION. THREE COMPANIES.The Unusual Group is a storytelling media production and expedition company

curating the unusual perspectives of the worlds leading innovators.

MORE INFORMATION:

CONTACT GAUTAM TO LEARN MORE www.weareunusual.com

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DISCOVER THE UNKNOWN. DARE TO BE UNUSUAL.

Thats all folks!

Wishing you an unusual new year full of hope, wonder, and curiosity!

Missed out entering your prediction? Dont sweat it! Sign up for my newsletter at www.drgautamgulati/thinkunusual and I will directly notify you the next time around.


Health & Medicine

Crowdsourced Health Predictions for 2015 (a free gift of wonder) Curated by Dr. Gautam Gulati