What can political science tell us about oil-rich governments?

Prof. Michael L. RossUniversity of California, Los Angeles

November 5, 2015

What can political science tell us about oil and democracy?

Prof. Michael L. RossUniversity of California, Los Angeles

November 5, 2015

Citations of Mahdavy 1970

Mahdavy 1970

• Revived concept of “rentier states”• Oil government spending dominates

economy • Oil government does not collect taxes• Oil leaders neglect development• “economic and technological backwardness”• “socio-political stagnation”

“socio-political stagnation”

• Mahdavy’s most robust insight• Research on effects of oil rents on:

– Government accountability (democracy)– Press freedom– Corruption– Both national and subnational politics

• Brazil, Iran, Indonesia, Peru, China, United States– Incidence of violent conflict

Some key insights

• The effects of oil on democracy have grown since the 1970s

Democracy in oil producers vs. all others

All other states

Major oil producers

Some key insights

• The effects on accountability have grown since the 1970s

• Effects hold true across regions

Countries with least political freedomFreedom House 2015

Africa• Equatorial Guinea • Chad• Sudan• South Sudan• Eritrea• Central African Republic• Somalia

Middle East• Bahrain• Saudi Arabia• Syria

East Asia• China• Laos• North Korea

Other regions• Uzbekistan• Turkmenistan• Cuba• Belarus

Countries with least political freedomFreedom House 2015

Africa• Equatorial Guinea • Chad• Sudan• South Sudan• Eritrea• Central African Republic• Somalia

Middle East• Bahrain• Saudi Arabia• Syria

East Asia• China• Laos• North Korea

Other regions• Uzbekistan• Turkmenistan• Cuba• Belarus

Some key insights

• The effects on accountability have grown since the 1970s

• Effects hold true across regions• Oil durability of autocratic leaders

Longest-serving autocratsTeodoro Obiang (1979- )(Equatorial Guinea)

Eduardo dos Santos (1979- )(Angola)

Some key insights

• The effects on accountability have grown since the 1970s

• Effects hold true across regions• Oil durability of autocratic leaders• Transitions in oil states when revenues drop

Oil income in Mexico (1960-2014)

Transition year

Oil income in Nigeria (1960-2014)

Transition year

Oil income in Indonesia (1960-2014)

Transition year

Oil income in Russia (1960-2014)

USSR collapse

Some key insights

• The effects on accountability have grown since the 1970s

• Effects hold true across regions• Oil durability of autocratic leaders• Transitions in oil states when revenues drop• Most successful transitions to democracy in

countries with little or no oil

Democratic Transitions in Muslim States (1960-2012)

Country Year Oil Income/capitaTurkey 1961, 1983 $8Sudan 1965, 1986 0Pakistan 1972, 1988 9Kyrgystan 1990 1Comoros 1990 0Bangladesh 1991 6Mali 1992 0Niger 1993, 1999 0Indonesia 1999 70Senegal 2000 0Tunisia 2012 134

Will we see political transitions in the high-rent oil exporters?

Oil & transitions to democracy

Summary

• Legacy of Mahdavy 1970: oil reduces political accountability

• Effect has grown over time and is true across countries

• Transitions occur when oil rents drop• No precedent for high-rent oil producers