UFI, The Global Association of the Exhibition Industry barometer for 2015

Global Exhibition Barometer 14th edition (January 2015)

A UFI report based on the results of a survey

conducted in December 2014 among UFI*,

SISO**, AFIDA*** & EXSA**** Members

(*) Global (**) USA (***) Central & South

America (****) Southern Africa

Table of contents

2

14th Global Exhibition Barometer

(January 2015) Table of contents

INTRODUCTION page 3

RESULTS BY REGION

1. Gross Turnover page 4

2. Operating Profits page 7

3. Perception of the economic crisis page 10

4. Most important business issues page 12

5. Priorities in terms of strategy page 14

DETAILED RESULTS FOR SELECTED COUNTRIES page 17

(China, Russian Federation, Germany, USA, South Africa, Turkey, Italy)

CONCLUSION page 26

APPENDIX: answers per country/region page 27

Introduction

3

Since 2009, UFI has regularly assessed the impact of the economic downturn by developing a “Crisis Barometer” based

on the perceptions of UFI members in 84 countries and including, for the USA, an identical survey conducted by SISO

(Society of Independent Show Organizers). The scope of the survey has since been broadened to include members of

AFIDA (Asociacion International de Ferias de America) in Central and South America and of EXSA (Exhibition and

Events Association of Southern Africa).

Results of this survey were initially published in February, May & August 2009. This report evolved as the “Global

Exhibition Barometer”, with two surveys per year. The last nine reports were issued in January and July 2010, 2011,

2012, 2013 and in July 2014. The current document presents the results of the 14th Global Exhibition Barometer survey,

conducted in December 2014. Where possible it identifies trends drawing on the results of the previous surveys.

Important remark

It should be noted that the number of replies to the current survey (203 from 55 countries) provides representative

results. However, the consolidated regional results may not reflect the situation of specific countries in that region.

This is why a second set of results, specific to those countries where a significant number of answers were obtained

(China, Russian Federation, Germany, USA, South Africa, Turkey, Italy), are included.

Questions related to this survey should be addressed to Christian Druart at [email protected].


(January 2015) Introduction

mailto:[email protected]



4

The 14th Barometer surveyed the evolution of participants’ turnover expectations for 2014 and 2015 as compared to their

expectations during the same period the year before (regardless of possible biennial effects). The charts presented on the

next two pages combine these results with those of previous surveys for the 2008-2013 period.

The first chart presents the percentage of companies declaring an increase in their turnover. The charts on the following

page detail these results, adding the percentage of companies declaring decreases in their turnover and the percentage of

“unknown” answers.

Survey results indicate:

• The outlook since 2011 remains positive, with a majority of companies in all regions declaring turnover increases;

• Projections indicate that this is expected to continue through 2015;

• There are however different regional levels of turnover increases for 2014 and 2015 (*):

- An average 6 companies out of 10 for 2014 and 8 for 2015 declare an increase in the Americas, where the USA

outperformed the regional results in 2014, whereas Central and South America faced a significant drop during the

2nd half of 2014;

- An average 7 companies out of 10 declare increases in Asia/Pacific, where China anticipates a slowdown in 2015,

with a decrease from 88% for 2014 to 70% for 2015;

- An average 6 companies out of 10 declare increases in Europe but the situation varies a lot among countries and a

slowdown is expected in several key markets in 2015: from 86% in 2014 to 71% in 2015 in Turkey and from 43% to

11% in Russia; the situation appears stable in Germany with an average of 1 company out of 2 declaring an

increase for 2014 or 2015;

- An average 8 companies out of 10 for 2014 and 9 for 2015 declare increases in the Middle East and Africa, where

South Africa outperforms these already high average regional results.

(*) the results indicated in this paragraph do not include the “unknown” answers. This may slightly improve the picture for 2015

(please see the detailed charts for complete results).


(January 2015) 1. Gross Turnover

5

As declared

in previous surveys

As declared

in December 2014


(January 2015) % of companies declaring an

increase in turnover when compared

to their projections for the same period

the year before (regardless of possible biennial effects)

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

bef. 31Dec.2008

1st half2009

2nd half2009

1st half2010

2nd half2010

1st half2011

2nd half2011

1st half2012

2nd half2012

1st half2013

2nd half2013

1st half2014

2nd half2014

1st half2015

2nd half2015

Middle East

& Africa

Asia &

Pacific

Americas

Europe

As declared

in Dec. 2014

6

Americas

Decrease: 10% or more Increase Decrease: less than 10% I don’t know

As declared in previous surveys

Bef.31

Dec.08

H1 H2

2009

Asia/Pacific Middle East & Africa

Europe

H1 H2

2010

H1 H2

2011

H1 H2

2012

H1 H2

2013


(January 2015)

How do you expect your turnover

to change when compared to the

same period the year before?

H1 H2

2014

30% 24% 33%

7% 5% 5% 16% 10% 6% 5%

15% 8%

42% 55% 40%

24% 16% 16%

5% 32% 38%

23% 23%

15% 40%

17% 23%

28% 21% 27%

69% 79% 79% 79%

58% 56% 72% 77%

70% 52%

79% 73%

4% 4%

48% 42% 27%

6% 8% 6% 3% 3% 10% 6% 5% 11% 9% 16% 15%

21% 28%

35%

20% 8% 14% 15% 18% 15%

13% 16% 14%

30% 11% 7%

31% 30% 38%

74% 84% 80% 82% 79% 75% 81% 79% 75%

61% 66% 70%

7% 8%

36% 39% 48%

21% 20% 13% 11% 16% 14% 10% 15% 14% 17% 16% 17%

27% 41%

37%

34% 31%

23% 23% 23% 32% 31% 30%

19% 27% 23% 21%

37% 20% 15%

45% 49% 64% 66% 61% 55% 59% 55%

67% 56%

55% 55%

6% 7%

29% 28% 14% 18% 15% 14%

5% 10% 11% 12% 9% 9% 4%

29%

29% 18% 36%

23% 29% 32%

14% 26% 25%

9% 18%

12% 4%

71%

43% 57% 64% 64% 62% 57% 63%

76% 63% 63%

82% 73%

80% 88%

8% 4%

H1 H2

2015

As declared

in Dec. 2014


Bef.31

Dec.08

H1 H2

2009

H1 H2

2010

H1 H2

2011

H1 H2

2012

H1 H2

2013

H1 H2

2014

H1 H2

2015

As declared

in Dec. 2014


Bef.31

Dec.08

H1 H2

2009

H1 H2

2010

H1 H2

2011

H1 H2

2012

H1 H2

2013

H1 H2

2014

H1 H2

2015

As declared

in Dec. 2014


Bef.31

Dec.08

H1 H2

2009

H1 H2

2010

H1 H2

2011

H1 H2

2012

H1 H2

2013

H1 H2

2014

H1 H2

2015

7

The 14th Global Barometer survey questioned the evolution of operating profits for 2014 as compared to the previous

year.

The charts presented in the next two pages combine these results with those of previous surveys which provided the

evolution of operating profits for 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 and 2013. The first chart combines the results of companies

declaring an increase of more than 10% and those declaring a stable result (between -10% and +10%) and the next

chart identifies those with reductions in profits or losses.

The results show that:

• Less than 1 company out of 2 in all regions declare an increase of more than 10% in annual profits for 2014: almost

1 out of 2 in both the Middle East & Africa and the Americas, 4 out of 10 in Asia/Pacific and 3 out of 10 in Europe;

• These findings apply to the major national markets where a large number of answers were received (54% in South

Africa, 50% in the USA, 44% for China) except in Europe where significant differences are noted (14% in Russia

and Italy, but 50% in Germany and Turkey);

• A large proportion of companies claim stable or increasing results: 78% in the Americas, 81% in Europe, 87% in

Asia/Pacific and 90% in the Middle East/Africa.


(January 2015) 2. Operating Profits

8

Americas Europe Asia & Pacific Middle East & Africa


(January 2015) Operating profits

compared to the previous year

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

% of companies declaring stable

profits (between -10% and +10%)

or increases of more than 10%

% of companies declaring profit

increases of more than 10%

9

Loss

Increase

of more than 10%

Reduced

by 11-50%

Asia/Pacific Middle East & Africa

Operating profits

compared to the previous year

Stable (between

-10% and +10%)

Reduced

by more than 50%

Europe Americas


(January 2015)

9%

58% 45%

60%

38% 47%

36%

33% 50% 20%

50% 31% 45%

8% 5% 20%

12% 22%

9%

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

18%

44% 61%

43% 41% 40%

52%

47%

34%

43% 52% 46%

25%

3% 5%

13% 6% 12%

2% 6% 2% 2% 2% 3%

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

5%

33%

52% 35% 33% 33%

43%

47%

33%

47% 43% 48%

37%

11% 10% 11% 19% 13% 7%

7% 2% 3%

3% 4% 7% 1% 3% 4% 3% 2%

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

33% 50% 50%

32% 38% 50%

56%

46% 36%

54% 48% 40%

11% 14% 8% 10% 10% 4% 5% 3%

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

10

Companies were asked their views on whether the impact of the “economic crisis” on their business was over or not.

The chart on the next page presents the replies together with those declared in the 10 previous surveys.

In all regions except Europe, a small majority of respondents declared that the impact of the “economic crisis” on their

exhibition business is now over. In Europe, more than 7 companies out of 10 consider that their business is still affected

by the “economic crisis”. A large majority of those who consider that it is not yet over do not know when it will stop.

The detailed results for those countries where a significant number of answers were obtained highlight differences:


(January 2015) 3. Perceptions of

the economic crisis

Country

Yes, the impact of

the economic crisis

is over

No, it is not and I

expect that it will

end in 2015

No, it is not and I

expect that it will

end after 2015

No, it is not and I

don’t know when it

will end

USA 69% 23% - 8%

China 58% 16% 26% 0%

Germany 46% 15% 15% 23%

South Africa 46% 23% 15% 15%

Turkey 38% 13% 25% 25%

Italy 29% - 29% 43%

Russia 13% 7% 67% 13%

11

Americas

Europe

Asia & Pacific

Middle East & Africa


(January 2015) % of companies declaring – over

the last 10 Barometer surveys –

that the impact of the “economic

crisis” on their exhibition business

is now over

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

June2010

Dec.2010

June2011

Dec.2011

June2012

Dec.2012

June2013

Dec.2013

June2014

Dec.2014

12

As in the earlier Global Barometer Surveys, companies were asked to identify the three most important issues for their

business in the coming year from a proposed list of seven issues.

The results are remarkably stable in all surveys, with around 80% of all answers relating to the following 4 issues:

- “State of the national/regional economy” (27% in the current survey)

- “Local/national competition from the exhibition industry” (18% in the current survey)

- “Global economic uncertainty” (17% in the current survey)

- “Internal management challenges” (16% in the current survey).

“Environmental challenges (customer expectations, regulations, etc.)” appears as the next most important issue (10% in

the current survey).

The next slide shows the three most important issues selected and the table below highlights the rates obtained for each

of the top 5 issues in those countries where a significant number of answers were obtained.


(January 2015) 4. Most important

business issues

Country

Internal

management

challenges (ex.

finance, human

resources, staff, training)

Local/national

competition from

within the

exhibition industry

State of the

national/regional

economy

Global economic

uncertainty

Environmental

challenges (customer

expectations, regulations,

etc.)

China 19% 20% 24% 19% 11%

Germany 17% 25% 22% 14% 6%

Italy 10% 14% 29% 29% 10%

Russia 11% 18% 33% 24% 11%

South Africa 12% 21% 24% 19% 10%

Turkey 12% 21% 24% 19% 10%

USA - 29% 33% 33% 5%

13


(January 2015) Top 3 issues

27%

18% 17%

16%

10%

6% 4%

2%

State of thenational/regional

economy

Local/nationalcompetition from

within theexhibitionindustry

Global economicuncertainty

Internalmanagement

challenges (ex.finance, humanresources, staff,

training)

Environmentalchallenges(customer

expectations,regulations, etc.)

Competition withother media (ex.internet, virtualtrade shows,social media)

Integration withother media (ex.internet, virtualtrade shows,social media)

Other

14

Finally, companies were asked if they could share their current priorities in terms of strategy in two specific areas:

their range of activities and their geographical exposure.

In all regions, a large majority of companies intends to develop new activities, in either the classic range of exhibition

industry activities (venue/organizer/services), in other live events or virtual events, or in both: 85% in the Middle East

& Africa, 77% in Europe, 76% in the Americas and 68% in Asia/Pacific .

In terms of geographical expansion, around one company out of two in all regions declare an intention to develop

operations in new countries.

The pages 24 and 25 combine these results for those countries where a significant number of answers were

obtained.


(January 2015) 5. Priorities in

terms of strategy

15

Stay within current

scope of activities (as a venue, an organizer

or a service provider)

Develop new activities

within the classical range

of the exhibition industry (venue / organizer / services)


in terms of live events

or virtual events

Asia/Pacific

Middle East

& Africa

Europe

Americas

WORLD

Both these developments


(January 2015) Current strategic priorities

related to the range of activities

24% 39% 23% 13%

24%

32%

23%

15%

36%

45%

38%

37%

18%

19%

26%

30%

21%

4%

13%

19%

Operate in new countries

16

WORLD

Stay in the same countries as

those where I currently operate



related to geographic exposure

Asia/Pacific

Middle East

& Africa

Europe

Americas

49% 51%

45%

51%

51%

45%

55%

49%

49%

55%

17

Detailed results for CHINA

(19 answers)

Decrease:

10% or more

Increase

Decrease: less

than 10%

I don’t know

How do you expect your turnover to change when

compared to the same period the year before?

H1 H2

2014

Loss

Increase of more

than 10%

Reduced by

11-50%

Operating profits compared

to the previous year

Stable (between

-10% and +10%)

Reduced by

more than 50%

% of companies declaring that the impact of the “economic crisis”

on their exhibition business is now over and anticipated end

by those who consider that it is not yet over

Top 3 issues

42%


(January 2015)

H1 H2

2015

6% 6% 8% 9% 6% 6%

17% 18%

88% 88% 67% 55%

8% 18%

44%

56%

2014

58%

0%

16%

26%

0%

Yes I don't know No, in 2015 No, after 2015 No, I don't knowwhen

19% 20% 24%

19%

2% 2%

11%

4%

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18

Detailed results for RUSSIA

(15 answers)


(January 2015)

Decrease:

10% or more

Increase

Decrease: less

than 10%

I don’t know



H1 H2

2014

Loss

Increase of more

than 10%

Reduced by

11-50%



Stable (between

-10% and +10%)

Reduced by

more than 50%




Top 3 issues

87%

H1 H2

2015

11%

18%

33%

24%

2% 0%

11%

0%

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13%

0% 7%

67%

13%


14%

43%

36%

7%

2014

20% 27% 23% 33%

27%

40% 54% 25%

53% 33%

17%

23% 25%

19

Detailed results for GERMANY

(13 answers)


(January 2015)

Decrease:

10% or more

Increase

Decrease: less

than 10%

I don’t know



H1 H2

2014

Loss

Increase of more

than 10%

Reduced by

11-50%



Stable (between

-10% and +10%)

Reduced by

more than 50%




Top 3 issues

54%

H1 H2

2015

18% 9%

25% 25%

27% 45% 17% 17%

55% 46% 50%

42%

8% 16%

50%

42%

8%

2014

46%

0%

15% 15%

23%


17%

25% 22%

14%

8% 6% 6%

3%

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20

Detailed results for USA

(13 answers)


(January 2015)

Decrease:

10% or more

Increase

Decrease: less

than 10%

I don’t know



H1 H2

2014

Loss

Increase of more

than 10%

Reduced by

11-50%



Stable (between

-10% and +10%)

Reduced by

more than 50%




Top 3 issues

21%

H1 H2

2015

0%

29% 33% 33%

0% 0% 5%

0%

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man

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69%

0%

23%

0% 8%


50%

50%

2014

20% 33%

25% 30%

80% 67%

75% 70%

21

Detailed results for SOUTH AFRICA

(13 answers)


(January 2015)

Decrease:

10% or more

Increase

Decrease: less

than 10%

I don’t know



H1 H2

2014

Loss

Increase of more

than 10%

Reduced by

11-50%



Stable (between

-10% and +10%)

Reduced by

more than 50%




Top 3 issues

54%

H1 H2

2015

9% 17% 8%

91% 83% 85%

92%

7% 8%

54%

46%

2014

46%

0%

23%

15% 15%


12%

21% 24% 19%

5% 7%

10%

2%

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22

Detailed results for TURKEY

(8 answers)


(January 2015)

Decrease:

10% or more

Increase

Decrease: less

than 10%

I don’t know



H1 H2

2014

Loss

Increase of more

than 10%

Reduced by

11-50%



Stable (between

-10% and +10%)

Reduced by

more than 50%




Top 3 issues

62%

H1 H2

2015

12%

21% 24% 19%

5% 7%

10%

2%

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38%

0%

13%

25% 25%


50%

50%

2014

14% 25%

33% 14%

100%

72% 75% 67%

23

Detailed results for ITALY

(7 answers)


(January 2015)

Decrease:

10% or more

Increase

Decrease: less

than 10%

I don’t know



H1 H2

2014

Loss

Increase of more

than 10%

Reduced by

11-50%



Stable (between

-10% and +10%)

Reduced by

more than 50%




Top 3 issues

71%

H1 H2

2015

33% 33% 29% 33%

67% 67% 71% 67%

14%

86%

2014

29%

0% 0%

29%

43%


10% 14%

29% 29%

5% 5% 10%

0%

Inte

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man

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24

Stay within current scope

of activities (as a venue, an organizer or

a service provider)

Develop new activities within

the classical range of the

exhibition industry (venue /

organizer / services)


in terms of live events

or virtual events

South Africa

Russian

federation

Italy

Germany

WORLD

Both these developments



related to the range of activities for those countries where a significant

number of answers were obtained

24% 39% 23% 13%

18%

20%

20%

21%

27%

57%

50%

27%

20%

33%

36%

53%

43%

25%

45%

40%

33%

7%

13%

25%

9%

20%

13%

36%

7% China

Turkey

USA

Operate in new countries

25

WORLD

Stay in the same countries as

those where I currently operate



related to geographic exposure for those countries where a significant

number of answers were obtained

49% 51%

20%

42%

43%

62%

64%

86%

100%

80%

58%

57%

38%

36%

14%

South Africa

Russian

federation

Italy

Germany

China

Turkey

USA

26

The 14th Global Barometer survey, conducted in December 2014, was answered by 203 companies from 55 countries.

Its results, combined with those of the previous surveys, provide a pulse on the exhibition industry since the end of

2008.

Even though the situation appears rather solid with a majority of companies from all regions declaring an increase of

their turnover since at least 2011, less than one company out of two declares an increase of annual profit of more than

10% for 2014 and only 41% of respondents consider that the economic crisis is now over.

Detailed results for several key national markets indicate a general positive outlook on all issues for 2014 and 2015 for

both USA and China, but with a small slowdown in turnover increase anticipated in China for 2015; however, significant

differences appear in Europe, with turnover increase expected in 2015 varying from 2 companies out of 3 in Turkey or

Italy to 1 out of 2 in Germany, and only 1 in 10 in Russia.

The most important issues for the business remains related to the general economic situation with the state of the

national/regional economy and the global economic uncertainty consistently selected as among the 3 most important

business issues for the last 4 years, together with local competition and internal management challenges. Environmental

challenges (customer expectations, regulations, etc.) appear as the next most important issue.

Most companies are planning new business developments: 76% are planning new activities in either the classic range of

exhibition activities (venue/organizer/services) or in live or virtual events (or both) and 51% plan to expand exhibition

operations to new countries.

THE NEXT GLOBAL BAROMETER SURVEY WILL BE RUN IN JUNE 2015 – PLEASE PARTICIPATE!


(January 2015) Conclusion

27


(January 2015) Appendix

Number of survey replies per country/region - Total = 203 (in 55 countries/regions)

North America 19 Europe 87 Middle East / Africa 30 Asia & Pacific 53

Canada 3 Austria 1 Bahrain 1 Australia 3

Mexico 2 Belgium 5 Iran 3 Azerbaijan 1

USA 13 Croatia 1 Iraq 1 China 19

(*) 1 Czech Republic 1 Jordan 2 India 6

France 2 Lebanon 1 Japan 3

Georgia 1 Oman 2 Kazakhstan 1

Central & South America 14 Germany 13 Saudi Arabia 1 Malaysia 3

Argentina 2 Greece 1 South Africa 13 New Zealand 2

Bolivia 1 Italy 7 United Arab Emirates 2 Pakistan 1

Brazil 2 Kosovo 1 Tunisia 1 Singapore 6

Colombia 4 Luxembourg 1 (*) 3 South Korea 2

Ecuador 2 Netherlands 3 Thailand 2

Honduras 1 Norway 1 (*) 4

Peru 1 Poland 2

(*) 1 Portugal 2

Russian

Federation 15

Slovenia 1

Spain 4 (*) several countries

(regional answer)

Sweden 4

Switzerland 1

Turkey 8 (**) a ratio was applied

when necessary to the

answers from South

Africa in order not to

produce biased

consolidated regional

results

Ukraine 3

United Kingdom 6

(*) 3

Headquarters

17, rue Louise Michel

F-92300 Levallois-Perret France

Tel: (33) 1 46 39 75 00

Fax: (33) 1 46 39 75 01

E-mail: [email protected]

Asia/Pacific Office

Suite 4114, Hong Kong Plaza

188 Connaught Road West

Hong Kong, China

Tel: (852) 2525 6129

Fax: (852) 2525 6171


Middle East/Africa Office

Expo Centre

Sharjah, UAE

Tel / Fax: (971) 6 599 1352


Government & Nonprofit

UFI, The Global Association of the Exhibition Industry barometer for 2015