Pandora Cell

Challenge to crisis management organisations

What has happend? What are we doing about

it? What are the

consequences? What if..?

Frequent assumption

Impact

Time

”Things are under control”Deployed measures will be sufficiently effective in mitigating the consequences of the incident at hand, and in preventing further adverse developments.

Now

What if..?

Impact

Time

ProlongationCurrent situation and issues persist

ReframingSomething else happens (or already happend)

ExacerbationThe current situation intensifies and worsens

FatiguingRecovery is (too) slow

Now

CrisisManagement

Staff

Chief of StaffSecretariat HR & Legal ICT & Logistics Operations Crisis

communication

Crisis management organisation

CrisisManagement

Staff

Chief of Staff Secretariat HR & Legal ICT & Logistics Operations Crisis

communication Pandora cell

Crisis management organisation

NOW16 % BETTTER!

Aim• Strengthen proactivity in the crisis response• Prevent bad situations from getting worse due to lack of

attention to the immediate future, and failing memory of past learning points

Task• Analyse the crisis and identify circumstances that may

cause the current situation to deteriorate in the near future

Output• A list of 3-5 issues for the staff leadership to consider• Further input to the decision-making process during

crisis situations, as requested

Pandora Cell

CURRENT CASE• Situation report• Media• Social Media• other

PREVIOUS CASES• Written evaluation reports• Risk assessment reports• Personal experience• other

COMMON ISSUES

INVENTORY

THE INCIDENT

LOSS OF CONTROL

RESOURCE GAPS

SPREADING

DRIVERS

STRENGTH

MOMENTUM

INDICATORS

PHASE ISense-making

PHASE IICalibration

TIME HORIZON

ORGANISATIONAL

PERSPECTIVE

PHASE IIISense-breaking

OUTPUT

Recommendations

for the crisis staff

PHASE IVSelection

Methodology

The incident

Increased intensity Prolonged duration Increased mortality Different from what was initially assumed The projection or forecast is misleading […]

Loss of control

Breakdown of physical barriers Breakdown of procedures Breakdown of communication systems Inefficient crisis management Insufficient overview Insufficient situational awareness Lack of attention to loss and needs of those affected Insufficient focus on recovery Loss of credibility or reputation Loss of political support (local/national/internat.) Rumours/misinformation Anxiety/unrest Undesirable behavioural changes Active resistance towards authorities Riots […]

Resource shortages

Staff shortage Transport shortage Insufficient facilities, systems or equipment Insufficient time Exhaustion/fatigue Limited redundancy Fiscal limitations (short/long term) Insufficient leadership/prioritisation/delegation Insufficient rear area support Insufficient training/experience Insufficient technical capabilities Insufficient recovery capabilities […]

Spreading

Breakdown/failure of critical functions Critical functions under pressure Knock-on effects btw. sectors Geographical (local/national/internat.) Socially Pollution/contamination […]

Common Issues Inventory

Exercise lead-out

• Collision btw. the Russian nuclear-powered vessel ’Sevmorput’ and a Danish bulk carrier

• Severe damage to and subsequent grounding of ’Sevmorput’ 70 km east of Aarhus

• Limited communication with ’Sevmorput’

• Strictly no access to ’Sevmorput’

CURRENT CASE• Situation report• Media• Social Media• Other

PREVIOUS CASES• Written evaluation reports• Risk assessment reports• Personal experience• Other

COMMON ISSUES

INVENTORY

THE INCIDENT

LOSS OF CONTROL

RESOURCE GAPS

SPREADING

DRIVERS

STRENGTH

MOMENTUM

INDICATORS

PHASE ISense-making

PHASE IICalibration

TIME HORIZON

ORGANISATIONAL

PERSPECTIVE

PHASE IIISense-breaking

OUTPUT

Recommendations

for the crisis staff

PHASE IVSelection

ChernobylSubmarine incidentsRussia’s current stance on national security issues

24 hours

DEMA

Example: CMX 2015Wednesday , November 11th 2015

The incident

Increased intensity Prolonged duration Increased mortality Different from what was initially assumed The projection or forecast is misleading […]

Loss of control

Breakdown of physical barriers Breakdown of procedures Breakdown of communication systems Inefficient crisis management Insufficient overview Insufficient situational awareness Lack of attention to loss and needs of those affected Insufficient focus on recovery Loss of credibility or reputation Loss of political support (local/national/internat.) Rumours/misinformation Anxiety/unrest Undesirable behavioural changes Active resistance towards authorities Riots […]

Resource shortages

Staff shortage Transport shortage Insufficient facilities, systems or equipment Insufficient time Exhaustion/fatigue Limited redundancy Fiscal limitations (short/long term) Insufficient leadership/prioritisation/delegation Insufficient rear area support Insufficient training/experience Insufficient technical capabilities Insufficient recovery capabilities […]

Spreading

Breakdown/failure of critical functions Critical functions under pressure Knock-on effects btw. sectors Geographical (local/national/internat.) Socially Pollution/contamination […]

Common Issues Inventory

Issues to take into account

Specific issues IndicatorsNot just a nuclear incident

It may also be a matter of national security for Russia

• Continued withholding of information• Russian threats of intervention by

force• Noncompliance with international law

No experience with nuclear incidents on Danish territory

Planning focused on incidents in other European countries

• Exhaustion of experts and DEMA personnel

• Confusion regarding procedures for Host Nation Support

• Loud concerns regaring health issues and protective gear

Unknown hazards related to lost containers

No information on number, content and position of lost containers

• Matitime accidents caused by malfloating containers

• Accidents caused by contact with unknown container content

10 NM20 NM

Russian frigat

Sea Guardian

Sevmorput

Royal Danish Navy

Read all about it

• https://www.oecd.org/governance/toolkit-on-risk-governance/home/

• Contacts at DEMA– Head of Division Mads Ecklon, me@brs.dk – Head of Section Morten Thoft Korslund, mtko@brs.dk