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Long Rains Food Security Assessment Findings- Kenya Food Security Meeting at Humanitarian Partnership Conference 2014
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LONG RAINS FOOD SECURITY ASSESSMENT FINDINGS
Kenya Food Security Meeting
August 15th 2014
2
Presentation outline
• Assessment Coverage
• National Outlook
• Cluster Presentations
• Conclusion and Recommendations
• Discussions
3
Long Rains 2014 Food Security Assessment Coverage
National Outlook
Outline of the National Outlook
• Agro-climatic conditionso March to May 2014 Long rains performance.
• National crop production
• Commodity prices-Maize.o Wholesale maize price trends.o Terms of trade
• Nutrition status
• Food security phase classification.
• October to December 2014 long rains forecast
Mar – Jun 2014 Rainfall performance (% of normal)
• Onset: – Normally timed – 2nd – 3rd week of
March.
• Spatial distribution:– Generally uneven with
significant parts of pastoral and small parts of southeastern marginal receiving less than 50 percent of normal.
– Others received 90 – 150 percent of normal.
• Temporal distribution:– Poor
• Cessation: varied– 3rd – 4th week of April in SEM,
NEP– 3rd week of May in NWP – Mid-June in coastal
Maize production and prospects
• Total national maize output, for 2014 long rains production:– Projected LR 2014 output (2.2 Million MT) almost 20 -
30% below the five year average (2009-2013) of 2.7 Million MT.
• The below average output results from;– Poor rainfall distribution in the high potential areas
and other marginal agricultural areas– Effects of the MLND- Nandi, Trans Nzoia, Uasin Gishu,
Elgeyo Marakwet– Crop out seasons to avoid MLND- Bomet
• Other crops also below average.
National maize availability: Aug – Oct 2014
Maize Balance Sheet through October 2014 90 Kg bags
MT
Stocks as at 31st July 2014 in 90kg bags 9,844,558 886,010
a) Total East Africa Imports* (Private sector cross border trade) expected between August to October 2014
1,800,000 162,200
b) Imports outside EAC between August 2014 to 31st October 2014 0
c) Estimated harvest between August 2014 to October 2014 5,500,000 495,000
Total available stocks between August and October 2014
17,144,558
1,543,010
Post –harvest storage losses estimated at 10% 1,714,456 154,301Amount used for manufacture of feeds and other industrial products (2% of stocks)
342,891 30,860
Amount used as seed (1% of household stocks) 163,000 14,670Expected total exports to East Africa Community region 0
Expected exports outside the EAC region 0
Projected national availability as at 31st October 2014 ( 90kg Bags)
14,924,211
1,343,179
CONSUMPTION @3.84 million bags/Month for 43 million people for 3 months (August to 31st October , 2014)
11,520,000 1,036,800
Balance as at 31st October 2014 (surplus/deficit) 3,404,211 306,379
Surplus 3,404,211 306,379
No. of months the available maize stocks can last Less than a month
Trend of wholesale price of maize
2000
2200
2400
2600
2800
3000
3200
3400
3600
3800
4000
4200
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Nairobi Eldoret Kisumu Mombasa
Pri
ce
(K
sh
/90 K
G B
ag
)
2009-2013 Average 2014 2013
Comparative Terms of Trade
Laik
ipia
We
st
Po
ko
t
Isio
lo
Ba
rin
go
Wa
jir
Ma
nd
era
Ta
na
Riv
er
Ka
jia
do
Ma
rsa
bit
Sa
mb
uru
Ga
rissa
Tu
rka
na
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Jul-14 July Average (2009-2013)
Kilog
ram
mes
of
maiz
e e
xch
an
gin
g f
or
a g
oat
Trends of GAM by Surveys 2011 to 2014
National Nutrition TrendsNutrition Situation February
2014Nutrition Situation August -
October 2014
National Food Security Trends
Population in need of immediate assistance (1)
Ma
r 0
5 -
...
Se
p 0
5 -
...
Ma
r 0
6 -
...
Se
p 0
6 -
...
Ma
r 0
7 -
...
Oct
07
-..
.
Ma
r 0
8 -
...
Oct
08
-..
.
Ma
r 0
9 -
...
Se
p 0
9 -
...
Ma
r 1
0 -
...
Se
p 1
0 -
...
Ma
r 1
1 -
...
Se
p 1
1 -
...
Ma
r 1
2 -
...
Se
pt
12
...
Ma
r 1
3 -
...
Se
p 1
3 -
...
Ma
r 1
4 -
...
Se
p 1
4 -
...
-
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
Population requiring immediate food assistance (2)
Livelihood zones
Population affected after the 2013 short rains
Population affected after the 2014 long rains
Pastoral 796,000 1,004,300
Marginal agriculture
490,600 502,100
Total 1,286,600 1,506, 400
Distribution of population affected by County
Affected population in February 2014 and August 2014
Factors affecting food security
• Below average total rainfall performance – Poor temporal and uneven spatial long rains distribution
• High food prices
• Tribal and clan conflicts and insecurity
• Poor infrastructure-roads and communication
• Livestock and crop diseases
• Low adoption of suitable crop and livestock production technologies.
• Human wildlife conflict
Conflicts, disease hotspots and livestock Migration patterns
Oct – Dec Short Rains Forecast
• ECMWF- Hotter than normal (>+1.0C) dry season (Aug – Oct) and increased likelihood for wetter-than-normal rainfall performance across parts of eastern and northern Kenya during the short rains (Oct – Dec) season, near normal for the rest of the country.
Cluster Presentations
Pastoral Northwest Cluster
Turkana, Samburu and Marsabit Counties
Introduction
Figure : Pastoral Northwest Cluster Livelihood Zones
69%
24%
7%
Population Proportion by Livelihood Zones
Pastoral
Agro-Pastoral
Others
Food security trend
February 2014 August 2014
• Area planted-maize 49%,cow peas 304%(270 to 1092 Ha) above LTA-sorghum 20% below LTA.
• Irrigated area increased by 20%.
• Production-Maize 11% of LTA, Cow peas 107%,sorghum 293% (II28 TO 2975 bags) above.
• Forage condition: Poor (last 1-2months).
• Body condition: fair to poor camel – good.
• Milk availability-decrease by 80% to 1/4 to 1 lt per day.
Current Food Security Situation
Current Food Security Situation• Open water sources recharge -
55 to 60 % of capacity.
• Distance to water sources -normal 1-2 kms. pockets of Samburu and Marsabit at 12kms.
• Water consumption-normal 10-15l ,Parts of Marsabit and Turkana - 5-10l compared to 10 l.
• Dropout rates - between 10-20%.
• FCS -Marsabit and Samburu -100% HH – poor, Turkana - 42% and 34% in poor and borderline
Comparative Terms of Trade
31
81
38
23
66
35
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Turkana Marsabit Samburu
Kil
ogra
ms
of m
aize
pu
rch
ased
fr
om s
ale
of a
goa
t
July, 2014 July Average (2009-2013)
Nutrition Situation
February 2014 August 2014
Pastoral Northeast Cluster
(Mandera, Wajir, Garissa, Isiolo, Tana River Counties)
28
Introduction
52%
19%
8%
21%
Livelihood Proportions
PastoralAgro pastoralMixed farmingOthers
Food security trend
February 2014 August 2014
Current Food Security Situation• Area planted for Maize and Cowpeas
declined to 85% and 79% of the LTA respectively while Green grams area increased to 110%.
• Production for Maize, Cowpeas and Green grams declined to 79%, 78% and 96% of the LTA respectively.
• Return Trekking distances range between 15 and 30 Km – above normal of 10-20 Km.
• Body condition: fair across all the livelihood zones except for cattle in some pockets of the cluster which were poor.
• Milk availability per HH: between 1.5 and 3 litres compared to normal 4 to 7 litres).
Comparative Terms of Trade
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Mandera Wajir Garissa Isiolo Tana River
Kil
ogra
ms
of m
aize
pu
rch
ased
fr
om s
ale
of a
goa
t
July, 2014 July Average (2009-2013)
Current Food Security Situation• Recharge to open water sources was
55-60%.
• Distances to water sources within the normal 1-5kms and above 10kms for pockets in Tana River under water trucking.
• General increase in enrollment across the cluster with Garissa recording the highest [28%].
• Dropout rate was minimal across the cluster except Garissa with 23% drop out.
• Transition: ECD – primary >85%
• FIC below national target of 80%
• Vitamin A supplementation below national target of 80% for children aged 12-59 months (once & twice).
Nutrition Situation
February 2014 August 2014
Agro-pastoral Cluster(Kajiado, Narok, Nyeri(Kieni) West Pokot,
Baringo, and Laikipia
34
Introduction
Food security trend
February
2014August 2014
• Area planted: maize 94%, beans-92% and Irish potatoes 98% of LTA.
• Rain fed Production: • Maize - 41%, Beans - 36% and
Irish Potatoes -67% of LTA across the cluster.
• Stocks -Households 28%, Traders 50%, Millers 39% of LTA to last 1.5 months.
• Livestock Productivity-Forage: Fair to poor; Body condition: Fair to poor(cattle and sheep) and good for goats.
• Markets: Market operations normal, except in Baringo,& Laikipia (FMD Quarantine).
Current Food Security Situation
Comparative Terms of Trade
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Baringo West Pokot Laikipia Kajiado Nyeri Narok
Kil
og
ram
s o
f m
aiz
e p
urc
ha
sed
fr
om
sa
le o
f a
go
at
July, 2014 July Average (2009-2013)
Current Food Security Situation• CDR and U5DR below the alert
thresholds.
• Immunization coverage is below national target of 80% except Nyeri (Kieni) (87%).
• Vitamin A -below national targets of 80%.
• Nutrition - stable except East Pokot in Baringo ( GAM: 21%) and Northern part of West Pokot (11.8%).
• FCS - borderline (34%), poor(19%) and acceptable(47%).
• Coping strategy index: 38 in May 2014 compared to 27 in May 2013 (Baringo, W.Pokot ,Kieni) and 9 in Kajiado and Narok compared to 4.
Children at Risk of Malnutrition (MUAC<135mm)
Trends July 2014 vs LTA
• Education: Increased enrolment and retention.
Current Food Security Situation
• Water consumption: 10-20 litres per person per day except the Mixed Farming Livelihood zone of Kieni and Pastoral Livelihood zone of Baringo (7-10 litres per person per day).
Introduction
Food security trend
February 2014 August 2014
Trends of maize prices in the cluster
Current Food Security Situation
• Maize production- 67% of LTA.
• Other crops-32% of LTA.
• Stocks-Households 23%,traders 70% ,millers 48% of LTA.
• Forage condition: fair to poor, body condition: good to fair .
• Milk production is 0.5 - 1 litre per household.
• Market operations normal; Except in parts of Meru and Makueni.
Current Food Security Situation
• Water consumption is 12-20 lpppd compared to 15-30 normally.
• Latrine coverage is 67-92%.
• FIC below national target of 80% except Mbeere (82%).
• % of U-5 at risk of malnutrition (MUAC <135mm) trends ; stable and below the LTA apart from Tharaka and Meru North.
• Transition rate from Primary-secondary at 70-86%
Children at Risk of Malnutrition (MUAC<135mm
July 2014 vs LTA Trends
49
Coast Marginal Agricultural Cluster(Lamu, Kilifi, Kwale, Taita Taveta)
04/13/2023
Introduction
Mixed Farming 60%
Marginal Mixed
Farming 20%
Livestock 15%
Others 5%
Food Security trend
04/13/2023 51
February
2014August 2014
Current Food Security Situation
• Crop production:• Maize: 85% above LTA.• Cowpeas and green
grams was 36,40% respectively above LTA.
• Livestock productivity: Stable.
• Water consumption: 15- 30 lt/person/day: normal.
• Markets: Normal across the cluster except in some parts of Lamu.
04/13/2023 52
Trends of maize prices in the cluster
• Mortality: Below emergency threshold.
• Coping Strategy Index: Stable at 18, from 16 in May 2013.
• FCS ; 20% poor, 26% border line an 54% acceptable
• Education: Enrolment stable, drop out minimal.
• Nutrition status: Stable & below LTA.
Current Food Security Situation
Children at Risk of Malnutrition (MUAC<135mm
July 2014 vs LTA Trends
56
Conclusions and Recommendations
Conclusions• The 2014 long rains were below normal in most parts of
the country except parts of the coastal marginal areas.
• Below average harvest of 20-30 % is expected in the from the long rains crop harvest.
• Rangeland conditions in the pastoral areas are generally fair but deteriorating .
• Livestock Diseases especially FMD and LSD reported in few counties however livestock body condition reported to be fair.
• Endemic diseases currently managed by both national and county governments and other actors.
Conclusions• Water availability is fair following off season rains but
condition likely to worsen if October rains underperform
• Expected increase in maize prices due to dwindled stocks and expected below average long rains harvest
• Continued nutrition deterioration in the pastoral areas to critical levels generally and to emergency levels in some counties.
• Generally the schools in the pastoral areas recording improvements except in parts of Baringo and Turkana .
• Food security in the pastoral areas likely to continue deteriorating through October, with improvements expected after onset of the short rains.
Food Security Projection
Next steps……
• Support programmes; Livestock resilience projects, disease surveillance, small scale irrigation, livestock feed conservation in the ASALs to be strengthened.
• Soil and Water conservation activities need to be intensified with emphasis on water harnessing/harvesting programmes in the short rains season.
• Strengthen nutrition interventions in the areas with high malnutrition outcomes.
• Activation of contingency plans in the counties.
• Early preparedness for the October – December short rains likely to be normal to above normal, with potential for El Nino occurrence.
Proposed InterventionsSECTOR PROPOSED INTERVENTIONS COST
Ksh.COST IN U.S.
DOLLAR
AGRICULTURE Upscaling of input subsidy programmes and post harvest technologies to improve access to inputs and reduce post harvest losses, management of Maize Lethal Necrosis disease, sensitization of farmers on management and promotion of drought tolerant crop varieties, water harvesting for crop production, enhancement of agricultural mechanization, upscaling of irrigation initiatives.
1,305M 15M
WATER Fuel subsidy, purchases of fast moving spares, repair of storage facilities, water trucking to institutions and communities, hygiene and sanitation promotion, building capacity for water management commitees, Survey, drilling and equipping of boreholes, excavations and de-silting of pans and dams, pipelines extension provision of water storage structures
1,131M 13M
LIVESTOCK Destocking of cattle and supplementary feeding, Livestock disease surveillance/vaccination, breeding improvement, fodder production, conservation, and rehabilitation of rangeland, grazing management, Livestock marketing infrastructure-slaughter houses, sale yards, and capacity on livelihood diversifications.
1,479M 17M
Proposed InterventionsSECTOR PROPOSED INTERVENTIONS COST
Ksh.COST IN U.S.
DOLLAREDUCATION Up-scaling of School Meal Programme [SMP], to include
detached ECD centers, Dugsi and Madrasahs, Provision of Water tanks Peace Education campaigns, Construction of kitchens, expand support of field schools, construction of latrines, advocacy on girl child education, construction of ECD centers.
365M 4.2M
HEALTH AND NUTRITION
Scale up of High Impact Nutrition Interventions (HINI) including integrated management of acute malnutrition, procurement of equipment, active case finding, nutrition surveillance, nutrition surveys/assessments, integrated health and nutrition outreaches, medical screening, procurement of water treatment tablets,, promotion of proper hygiene and sanitation practices, deworming
1,496M 17.2M
FOOD ASSISTANCE Building resilience to future shocks through FFA and CFA. Food commodities and cash for 1.5 million food insecure people in need of assistance for the next six months (September - February 2015). An estimated 66,900 MT of food or cash equivalent (CFA) will be required.
6,612M 76M
Total 12,388M 142M
Thank You
04/13/2023 63