Early Warning Early Action

Julie Arrighi

Dar es Salaam, Tanzania26th March 2015

Routinely taking humanitarian action before a disaster or health emergency happens, making full use of scientific information on all timescales

Early Warning, Early Action

Why Early Warning Early Action?

Extreme events have implications on health, livelihoods, water, food security, and more

Climate and weather information can help anticipate and prepare for extreme events and changing risks.

Discussion

Which actions could be taken in Dar es Salaam if there was a very high chance of flooding within 3 days?

Low-Cost / No-Regrets / Co-Benefits Actions

These guidelines help to minimize risks and maximize benefits, especially if a disaster does not occur.

Uja

la Q

adir

, 20

09

When should I

act?

Early Warning Early Action hurdles…

Humanitarian Action Scenarios

  Yes disaster No disaster

Yes forecast-based action;  Worthy action Act in vain

No forecast-based action;  Fail to act Worthy inaction

How do you decide?

Early Warning Early Action is a function of…

Possible actions

Number of thresholds selected

Cost of action and acting in vain

Losses averted due to action

Lead time of forecast

Funding available

How often you act in vain

How often youtake worthy action

The Vision Forecast-Based Financing

9

Establishing Forecast Based Financing System: What is needed?

Historical record of disasters Historical forecasts/flood models Potential early actions with cost Facilitated discussion on “acting in vain” Enabling environment

10

When should I

act?

Thank you. Questions/Comments?