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2014 PV Performance Modeling Workshop: Satellite Irradiance Models and Datasets: Adam Kankiewicz, Clean Power Research
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Copyright © 2014 Clean Power Research, L.L.C
v040714
Satellite Irradiance Models and
Datasets
Adam Kankiewicz
Solar Resource Specialist
2014 PV Sandia Performance
Modeling Workshop May 5, 2014
Agenda
The Evolution of Solar Irradiance Modeling and
Datasets
Satellite-based Irradiance Modeling
TMY Data Considerations
Which Data Should I Use?
Agenda
The Evolution of Solar Irradiance Modeling and
Datasets
Satellite-based Irradiance Modeling
TMY Data Considerations
Which Data Should I Use?
“It’s main objective is to
provide data for computerized
calculations regarding energy
conservation, energy
consumption in buildings
and indoor climate.”
The Origins of TMY
Year long file of hourly (“8760”) weather data pulled
from a bank of longer historical data coverage
Meant to typify average weather conditions at a
location (P50)
TMY data are consistent at the monthly level
Current NREL NSRDB TMY2 and TMY3 weighting
scheme:
GHI: 25%
DNI: 25%
Met data (T, Td, WS): 50%
What is TMY?
Typical GHI Year (TGY)
Same concept as TMY but with weighting based solely
on GHI
What is TGY?
Individual year TGY
Mo
nth
ly A
ve G
HI (
W/m
2)
The Evolution of Irradiance Modeling
Model
Meth
odolo
gy
Data
set
METSTAT
Typical GHI
Year
(TGY)
TMY2
Satellite-based
SUNY
Satellite TMY3 TGY
Typical
Meteorogical
Year (TMY)
1970’s 2014
Updated
Satellite
Modeling Surface Irradiance Data
METSTAT
(Meteorological
Statistical)
Satellite-based
Primary difference is how clouds
are observed and handled!
Weather data plus
ground-based cloud
observations
Weather data plus
satellite-based cloud
observations
Agenda
The Evolution of Solar Irradiance Modeling and
Datasets
Satellite-based Irradiance Modeling
TMY Data Considerations
Which Data Should I Use?
Radiative Transfer Model
(quasi-physical)
+
Cloud Modulation
(largely empirical)
Satellite Model Components
© Perez & Hoff
Radiative Transfer Model
AOD
Precipitable water
Ozone
Altitude
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
W
O3
H
Model Sensitivities
Radiative Transfer Model
(quasi-physical)
+
Cloud Modulation
(largely empirical)
What GOES into a Satellite Model?
Copyright © 2014 Clean Power Research, L.L.C
v040714
Cloud Modulation
© Perez & Hoff
Copyright © 2014 Clean Power Research, L.L.C
v040714
Clo
ud
ind
ex
© Perez & Hoff
Cloud Modulation
DARK (clear) WHITE (cloudy)
© Perez & Hoff
DNI Extrapolation with DIRINDEX
DARK (clear) WHITE (cloudy)
© Perez & Hoff
Specular Reflectivity Must Be Accounted for
Presence of snow detected on the ground
© Perez & Hoff
Snow Must Be Accounted for
DARK (clear) WHITE (cloudy)
Visible Channel
IR Channel Combination
© Perez & Hoff
Fort Peck, MT
Visible + IR: Better Snow Discrimination
Visible Model
© Perez & Hoff
Sate
llite
(W
/m2)
Ground (W/m2)
Visible + IR Model
Sate
llite
(W
/m2)
Ground (W/m2)
Visible + IR: Better Snow Discrimination
February 2011
Visible Model Visible + IR Model
© Perez & Hoff
Satellite Model Error Characteristics
2010-2012 Observations
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
GHI
Visible Model Visible + IR© Perez & Hoff
Re
lati
ve A
nn
ual
MA
E (%
)
Agenda
The Evolution of Solar Irradiance Modeling and
Datasets
Satellite-based Irradiance Modeling
TMY Data Considerations
Which Data Should I Use?
TMY3 Data Locations (All Classes)
Not All TMY3 Locations Are Created Equal
% of
Sites
Uncertainty # of Years Sampled
(Generally)
Class I 16% Lowest 24 years
Class II 43% Higher 12 years
Class III 41% Highest 12 years + missing
data
Only 40 sites have measured solar data (<2%)
Pre-1998 = METSTAT modeled
1998-2005 years = Satellite modeled
TMY3 Data Locations (Class Differences)
Minneapolis/St. Paul Example
TMY3_Minneapolis-St. Paul Int.
Airport (Class I)
TMY3_St. Paul downtown Airport
(Class II)
TMY3_Minneapolis/Crystal
(Class II)
Annual Ave GHI (W/m2)
TMY3 Data Locations (Class Differences)
Minneapolis/St. Paul Example
* Annual output of a 5 kW system
Mo
nth
ly A
ve G
HI (
W/m
2)
TMY3 Minneapolis/Crystal Class II 5,545 kWh* -15%
TMY3 St. Paul Downtown Airport Class II 5,907 kWh* -9%
TMY3 Minneapolis/St. Paul Airport Class I 6,491 kWh* Base
SolarAnywhere Satellite
TMY3 Data Locations (Class I)
TMY3 (Class I) and Satellite-based Data
Hanford, CA
Error as a Function of Distance G
rou
nd
(W
/m2)
Satellite (W/m2)
Agenda
The Evolution of Solar Irradiance Modeling and
Datasets
Satellite-based Irradiance Modeling
TMY Data Considerations
Which Data Should I Use?
Which Dataset Should I Use?
Use Cases TMY/
TGY Ground Satellite
Initial Estimates Siting & Financing of
Utility Scale PV Systems Production Guarantees
for DG Lease Funds
Real-time Monitoring
© Clean Power Research
More than One Flavor of Satellite Data
Spatial Resolution
Temporal Resolution
Length of Coverage
Time-frame
Tuned/Not-Tuned
Ancillary Weather Data
Clear Sky
0
4:00 12:00 20:00
Ground Satellite 60 min. Data Satellite 30 min. data Satellite 1 min. Data
Copyright © 2014 Clean Power Research, L.L.C
v040714
Thank you
Skip Dise
SolarAnywhere Prod. Manager
Please feel free to contact us for any details or clarification related to presentation
Adam Kankiewicz
SolarAnywhere Research Spec.
Mark McKahan-Jones
Senior Account Executive