Strategic Foresight at AfricaRice

Africa Rice Center (AfricaRice)

Global Futures and Strategic Foresight Extended Team Meeting

Rome, May 25-28, 2015

ContentContent

• Methodology

• Some results of the ex-ante impact

• Way forward

Methodology: the agricultural household modelMethodology: the agricultural household model

Methodology (Cont’d): Changes in varietal characteristicsMethodology (Cont’d): Changes in varietal characteristics

Methodology (Cont): Changes in agricultural practicesMethodology (Cont): Changes in agricultural practices

Household and community survey data in 18 countries were used to

assess:

• The importance and variability of rice productivity by ecology

• The incidence and magnitude of effects of main stresses

• Varietal technology evaluation and preference at village level

Two days workshop during AfricaRice 2010 Research days

• Scientist proposed solutions by ecology and research discipline

• Scientist provided expected yield loss reduction / yield gain for each

solution

• Projected cost, year of delivery and proablitity of success

• AfricaRice’s comparative advantage in conducting such research

Methodology (Cont’d): dataMethodology (Cont’d): data

These survey data, experts’ opinion and additional secondary data

were used with econometric methods, to assess research impact for

each research theme and discipline, by country and ecology

• See Diagne et. al (2013) and AfricaRice 2011-2020 Strategic Plan for more

details

Methodology (Cont)Methodology (Cont)

Average expected yield gain by research solution and ecology (t/ha)

Some aggregated results of the potential impacts of technological innovations

Some aggregated results of the potential impacts of technological innovations

Share of annual discounted benefit due to technologies, by research option

Some aggregated results of the potential impacts of Some aggregated results of the potential impacts of technological innovationstechnological innovations

ADB: $1.1 billion, from 2014 to 2020, for farmers

Share of annual discounted benefit due to technologies, by ecology

Share of annual discounted benefit due to technologies, by reseach discipline

Some aggregated results of the potential impacts of Some aggregated results of the potential impacts of technological innovationstechnological innovations

Results are also available for processors, traders and consumers

Looking aheadLooking ahead

• Many technologies have been introduced since 2014 in the Rice Sector Development Hubs (RSDH) in SSA

• GFSF activities can help assess the mid-term impacts of these technologies and review the IPRs for a better future

Develop a framework at AfricaRice to link previous priority setting exercises to (better?) inform IPRs of rice in SSA

Mid-term data collection in the RSDH to assess the impacts of adopting improved technologies on productivity for all types of actors along the rice value chain

Training on the IMPACT model for AfricaRice staff that will get involved in Global Futures activities

Establishment of AfricaRice’s Global Futures Team

Workshop for AfricaRice’s Global Futures Team members to review experts’ opinion stated in 2010 on future productivity growths

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