Food Safety Challenges due to Climate Change 2012

기후변화대응 식품안전관리 연구기후변화대응 식품안전관리 연구Food Safety Challenges due to Climate Change

기후변화대응 식품안전관리 연구사업단

www.climate-food.net

Ki-Hwan Park, ProfessorDept. of Food Sci. & Tech.

Chung-Ang University

ILSI SEA Region 6th Asian Conference on Food and Nutrition Safety (Nov 2012) ILSI SEA Region 6th Asian Conference on Food and Nutrition Safety (Nov 2012) ILSI SEA Region 6th Asian Conference on Food and Nutrition Safety (Nov 2012) ILSI SEA Region 6th Asian Conference on Food and Nutrition Safety (Nov 2012) http://www.ilsi.org/SEA_Region/Pages/ViewEventDetails.aspx?WebId=4D540914-EEB6-40E4-89EB-0B73BA3D76C1&ListId=478BE3CB-581B-4BA2-A280-8E00CCB26F9C&ItemID=66

� 목목목목 차차차차

Global Climate Change

CC & Food Safety

Overview of Research Group

Food Safety Control Strategy

Grinnell Glacier National Park, MT




Enhanced greenhouse effect

Climatechange



cooler

warmer storms

winds

floods

droughts

3

Rising temperature

Increases in pathogen growth and infection

More precipitation

more and longer periods with favorable pathogen environments

Management practicesRising CO2 level

In general…



Management practices

⇒⇒⇒⇒

Rapid bacterial growth

⇒⇒⇒⇒ rapid host resistance breakdown

Frequent strong rainfall

⇒⇒⇒⇒ less effective residues of pesticide

Rising CO2 level

⇒⇒⇒⇒ more inoculum levels at the

Higher CO2 levels

⇒⇒⇒⇒ lower plant decomposition

⇒⇒⇒⇒ more plant residues for overwinter

⇒⇒⇒⇒ more inoculum levels at the beginning of grwoing season

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According to 4th IPCC(Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) report,

climate change is altering disaster risk patterns in three main ways :

� Increase in frequency and intensity of extreme events, such as more frequent extreme temperatures and heavy precipitation, more intensetropical cyclones and expanded area affected by drought and floods;

�� Changes in geographical distribution of area affected by hazards;


Prediction of Global Climate Change



�� Changes in geographical distribution of area affected by hazards;

�� Increase in vulnerability of particular social groups and economic sectors due to sea level rise, ecosystem stress and glacier melting.

Hurricane Katrina, U.S.A

Tsunami, Asia

Earthquake China

Flood,U.K

Hot Summer,France

Drought, Africa

Ice Melting, Peru

El Nino

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Global warming will accelerate with predictions of the average increase in

global temperature ranging from 1.8 to 4℃℃℃℃(IPCC, 2007) .

By 2020, between 75 and 250 million people are projected to suffer

increased water stress in sub-Saharan Africa and by 2080 2 to 7 million

more people per year, will be affected by coastal flooding (Yohe et al., 2007).


Prediction of Global Climate Change



Of the 262 million people affected annually by climate disasters between

2000 and 2004, more than 98 percent lived in developing countries

(UNISDR/CRED, 2007).

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Temperature: In 2020, +1.5℃℃℃℃ �� In 2050, +3.0℃℃℃℃ �� In 2080, +5.0℃℃℃℃

Precipitation: In 2020, +5 % �� In 2050, +7 % �� In 2080, +15 %

Sea level: Increase 50 cm by 2100

Seasons: Summer increase by 45 days and winter decrease by 63 days in 2080

Climate Change in Korea

Climate Change in KoreaNational Institute of Meteorological Research, 2007



Han River in 1950

Han River in present

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14.514.514.514.5

14.014.014.014.0

13.513.513.513.5

13.013.013.013.0

12.512.512.512.5

12.012.012.012.0

11.511.511.511.5

1500150015001500

1400140014001400

1300130013001300

1200120012001200

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1000100010001000

900900900900

Days (> 8

0m

m)

Days (> 8

0m

m)

Days (> 8

0m

m)

Days (> 8

0m

m)

Days (> 1

50m

m)

Days (> 1

50m

m)

Days (> 1

50m

m)

Days (> 1

50m

m)

Climate Change in Korea



PrecipitationTemperature Extremes

Risingtemperatures

Changing precipitation

Extreme events tropical storms etc.

℃℃℃℃+ 1.8℃℃℃℃ + 217㎜㎜㎜㎜ ⇒⇒⇒⇒

⇒⇒⇒⇒

80㎜㎜㎜㎜ storm 110 ⇒⇒⇒⇒ 172 days150㎜㎜㎜㎜ storm 16 ⇒⇒⇒⇒ 31 days

11.011.011.011.0

1910s1910s1910s1910s 1920s1920s1920s1920s 1930s1930s1930s1930s 1940s1940s1940s1940s 1950s1950s1950s1950s 1960s1960s1960s1960s 1970s1970s1970s1970s 1980s1980s1980s1980s 1990s1990s1990s1990s 2000s2000s2000s2000s

800800800800

1910s1910s1910s1910s 1920s1920s1920s1920s 1930s1930s1930s1930s 1940s1940s1940s1940s 1950s1950s1950s1950s 1960s1960s1960s1960s 1970s1970s1970s1970s 1980s1980s1980s1980s 1990s1990s1990s1990s 2000s2000s2000s2000s

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present ℃℃℃℃4℃℃℃℃ increase ℃℃℃℃2℃℃℃℃ increase

Increasing temperature makes Korea subtropical



℃℃℃℃

℃℃℃℃

� Increasing temperature 2℃℃℃℃ makes southern part of Korea subtropical area

� Increasing temperature 4 ℃℃℃℃ makes almost all peninsula subtropical area

� Summer period is longer than before

wintersummer

wintersummer

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Climate Change & Food Safety

• Globalisation & changing food trade patterns

•• Climate Climate changechange

• Technology development (for example

Major drivers of food safety risks



• Technology development (for example

nanotechnology)

• Economy

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• Temperatures will increase, winters will be wetter, summers drier and there will be an increase in intense rain events

• Changes are likely to affect the prevalence of disease and the usage of chemicals

Potential impacts on risks of chemicals and pathogens from agriculture



• Changes in soil characteristics and hydrology

• Climatic changes likely to affect fate and transport of pathogens and chemicals

• Risks could be very different from today

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• Flooding will increase exposure and risk to endemic livestock pathogens (anthrax, liver fluke, fecal/oral pathogens)

• Ectoparasitic diseases will increase

• Emergence, and increase in prevalence, of some arthropod vector-borne diseases in livestock is likely

Impacts of CC on Animal Disease



• Prevalence of diseases caused by anaerobic spore-forming bacteria (e.g. botulism and anthrax) may increase due to wetter conditions

• The prevalence of liver flukes may increase because of warmer, wetter conditions

• The prevalence of endemic diseases (e.g. Escherichia coli O157, Toxoplasma, Giardia, salmonellas, campylobacters) transmitted by fecal-oral routes may increase due to flooding and wetter conditions, although environmental survival is typically less

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Climate change & Hazards

Glacier Melting

Changes in the Atmosphere: Composition, Circulation

N2, O2, CO2, Ar, N2O, CH4 , O3 etc.

Increase Sea level and temp.

Changes in the Hydrological Cycle

Hazards Outbreaks



Sea Ice

Increase Sea level and temp.�� Change plankton �� HAB�� Contaminating Shellfish

Increase Use of Pesticides

Enhance pest activity ��Rapid reproducing ��Spread after floods ��

Increase vector-borne virus

Increase livestock disease ��Increase use of Vet. drug

Increase precipitation, temp. & humidity ��

Poorly dried crop ��Mycotoxin Produced ��

Increase pesticides

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• Importance of integrated approach to food safety, animal and plant health, with associated environmental risks

• Need to intensify efforts to implement programmes of food safety control system at national level

– Application of good practices

Climate change related phenomena highlighted…



– Monitoring and surveillance (food, environment, animal and human health)

• Need of predictive approaches (modelling, strategies)

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Overview of Research Group on Food Safety Control against Climate Change

Name of Research Group :

“Research Group on Food Safety Control against Climate Change”

Research Group Leader : Prof. Ki-Hwan Park (Chung-Ang Univ.)

Research Grant : $2 Million/year

Research Period : 2010 ~ 2014 (5 Years)

Introduction

Climate Change & Food Safety Research



Research Period : 2010 ~ 2014 (5 Years)

No. of Research Sub-projects : 23 projects

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Strategy & Structure of Research Group

1st Mid Unit

Prediction & Model DevelopmentHealth evaluation and R&D PlanningCollaboration and Symposium

Food Safety Prediction on Climate Change

2nd Mid Unit

Bacteria, Virus, Parasites, Shellfish toxin Mycotoxin, Pesticides, Vet. Drug, Rapid Detection Method

Control and Analysis of Hazards thru Simulation and Monitoring

Food Safety Control 1 2 3 4



3rd Mid Unit 4th Mid Unit

Development of Safety Control Process Technology

Consumer Awareness SurveyRisk Communication with ExpertEducation and Public Relation

Consumer Awareness and Risk Communication

Low Co2 Tech. & Green foods Policy

Control Technology in Manufacture��Process��Distribution, Foreign Materials

System on Climate Change

HazardsClimateChange

1 2 3 4Risk Communication

ProcessingPrediction Model

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Patent application!

Centralized DatabaseCentralized Database Big dataBig data--mining (data analysis) mining (data analysis)

CCCC--MIMSMIMS ccfsccfs--DMCDMC

Data collection, analysis and construction of statistical basis for climate change information



• Multi-dimensional data merging, processing between climate change and hazard variables

• Statistical data-mining � Descriptive analysis � Predictive analysis� Lag-time effect processing

• Risk Profile D/B against climate change � Cause/Effect tracking approach � Provide visual database service

(Monitoring Information Management System due to climate change)

(Data Mining Center for food safety against climate change)

[Features]

CONTAMINANET DATABASEWeb based data-warehouse systemComplete, consistent and deducted data acquisition Systemic database based on hazard and food code system Versatile data searching and downloading system

CLIMATE DATABASEPast 13yrs. weather database in Korea Prediction database by future scenario in Korea Support qualitative and quantitative climate observation variables(16 factors) Special retrieval of eventual variable(eg, typhoon)

Food-climateComposition

database

[Features]

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PG-ⅣⅣⅣⅣ

PG-ⅢⅢⅢⅢ

PG-ⅡⅡⅡⅡ

Prediction & Impact Assessment on Food Safety due to Climate Change

2010 Project2010 Project『Impact Assessment on Food

Safety by Factor Analysis of Climate Change』

Identification of Direct & Indirect Impacts on Food Safety in Korea due to Climate Change

Integrated Impact Assessment on Food Safety due to CC for Adaptation

Development of

2012 Plan2012 Plan

『Integrated Impact Assessment on Food Safety in Korea due to Climate

Change』

20112011



Paradigm of Strategic Plan Development

Mitigation → Adaptation

↓

Development of Adaptation Strategies

Development of model- & Simulation based Scenarios of Food Safety in Korea due to CC

Development of Impact Assessment Frame on Food Safety due to Climate Change

2011 Project2011 Project『Prediction & Impact Assessment

on Food Safety due to Climate Change』

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2 Area

1 Area

Su-WonWon-ju

Gang-Neung

I-Cheon

Pyeong-Chang

Po-Hang

Yang-Pyeong

| | | | Foodborne Pathogen monitoring on sample in each 3 area | | | | Development of Predictive Model

�� Inoculation : S. aureus etc.

� Humidity : 40~80%� Temp : 4~45℃

Incubation

0

2

4

6

8

0 20 40 60 80 100

Time (hr)

log

CF

U/g

80%RH

70%RH

60%RH

Growth curve

| | | | Microbiological Risk Assessment

MRA simulation model

Analysis of Climate Change Impact on Foodborne Pathogens



3 Area

Dae-Jeon

Bu-San

Ul-SanMil-Yang

Nam-Won

Sun-Cheon

Sample : Vegetables

Microorganism : Total bacteria, Coliform, E. coli

Foodborne pathogen : S. aureus, B. cereus, Salmonella spp.,

L. monocytogenes, E. coli O157:H7

Modified Gompertzmodel

Y=N0+C*exp｛｛｛｛-exp((2.718*SGR/C)*(LT-X)+1)｝｝｝｝

N0, log initial number of cells

-C: differencebetweeninitialand finalcellnumbers

-LT:delaybeforegrowth,sameunits asX

-SGR :maximum specificgrowthrate

-X: time/ Y: logcell

GR = 0.37103+0.0282*T-2.278*RH+0.01157*T*RH-0.0003822*T2+1.6355*RH2

LT = 40.904-1.135*T-55.58*RH-0.1278*T*RH+0.01653*T2+44.94*RH2

Development of Primary predictive model

Development of Secondary predictive model

R2 = 0.951

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Observed LT

Pre

dict

ed L

T

)n

) /log((

observedpredicted

10∑

=µµ

fB)

n

|)/log(|(

observedpredicted

10∑

=µµ

fA

nAverageSEP dpredictiveobserved

observed

∑ −=

2)(

)(

100%

µµµ

Validation of secondary predictive modely=a*exp(b/(x+c))

R2=0.9934

Temperature (C)

12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32

Tim

e (h

r)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Predicted lineEstimated values95% Prediction Band

y = 1.5509*exp(36.6583/(x+0.1213)) y(hr): Time, x(℃): Current temp

Time-temperature criterion

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Home Page

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Food Safety Control Strategy

• An action (ignoring washing hands)

– Carrier of pathogens; cause of consumer health problems in several regions, even several countries

• Factors affecting food safety

– Origin: Imported foods and ingredients

– Consumer: Increase of immigrant, elder people

Food Safety – Butterfly Effect



– Consumer: Increase of immigrant, elder people

– Science: Organic product, minimally processed food, resistant microorganism, seasonal foodborne outbreak, weather change (El nino)

• We can't always know what impact our day-to-day decisions will have farther down the line, but we do know that a small event can have a big impact.

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• Climate change likely to affect pathogen types and spread as well as chemical use and inputs in agriculture

• Fate and transport of contaminants in the environment will change

Food Safety Control against CC



• Highly complex problem – some changes could reduce risks other might increase the risks

• Need to take a whole system approach

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