2008 Bird flu ( HPAI ) outbreak impact in Assam ( India ) as assessed during June 2009

Post 2008 Bird flu (HPAI) outbreakscenario in Assam ( North East India ):

Dr.M.Islam Barbaruah and Dr.Monjul Islam

Regional Risk Assessment of HPAI: FAO,Bangkok 28-29 April,2010

Assam with an area of 78,438 sq km is a gateway state of astrategically important region of India, that shares 98 percentof its regional borders with international neighbors such aChina, Myanmar, Bhutan and Bangladesh : Issues – PhysicalConnectivity, Dependence for trade route, Psychological distance, Feeling ofdeprivation, Illegal migration, Conflicts & Terrorism.

USD 527

USD 361

Poverty rate 36.09% against India’s 26%.Regional Risk Assessment of HPAI: FAO,

Bangkok 28-29 April,2010

The population of the state (2003) is 26.6 million. There are3.7 million cultivators and 1.2 million agricultural laborers.

Agriculture and allied sectors that employs 69 pc of totalworkforce, productivity is amongst the lowest within India.

Being a state with limited benefits of green revolutiontechnologies and climatic uncertainties e.g. flood / erosion etc.livestock / poultry has potential to contribute to onfarmdiversification and intensification.

Livestock products are integral part of local diet as more than95 percent of the population are non-vegetarian.


0 5000 10000 15000 20000

Rice

Wheat

Pulses

Food Grain

Oil Seeds

Fruits

Vegetables

Spices

India

Assam

Performances

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

Human PopulationGrowth Trend

Milk ProductionGrowth trend

0

50

100

150

200

250

1995

-96

1996

-97

1997

-98

1998

-99

1999

-00

2000

-01

2001

-02

2002

-03

2003

-04

2004

-05

2005

-06

2006

-07

2007

-08


Meat ProductionGrowth Trend

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

1995

-96

1996

-97

1997

-98

1998

-99

1999

-00

2000

-01

2001

-02

2002

-03

2003

-04

2004

-05

2005

-06

2006

-07

2007

-08


Egg Production GrowthTrend

Per capita milk 69 gm against recommended 208 gm

Per capita egg 17 number against recommended 180 Per capita meat 930 gm against recommended 10.8 kg

Agricultural Productivity


The distribution of local birds per square km ( as calculated forNorth Eastern Region of India) is 71

Total indigenous poultry population (2003 ) of Assam is 21.66m.This is around 4 percent of indigenous poultry population inIndia and 55 percent of Northeast region.

Total chicken meat production from indigenous poultry is 21%of the total meat production in Assam.

The government is popularizing improved breed of dual purposechicken and duck in the state.

The Backyard Poultry sector – At a glance

Assam is the 2nd leading duck state in India with a population of5 million ducks.


Improved Poultry and Women Self Help Groups

Picture courtesy: Dr.Dishanta DuttaRegional Risk Assessment of HPAI: FAO,

Bangkok 28-29 April,2010

Input market Chicken raising Out put market

HE

Hatcheries

DOC

Poultry feed

Medicines&feed

supplement

Equipmentsand

appliances

Market interm

ediaries

Individual farmer- self capital

Farmer – growingwith small traders

Market interm

ediaries

Retailwet market

Hotels andspecializedfood joints

Consum

ers

Farmer – undercontract farming

with large companies14% Market share as

on June’2009

Structure of Commercial Poultry Sector in Assam


It is estimated that about 0.08 -1 m families are directly orindirectly engaged with commercial broiler chicken sector ofAssam. In 60% of cases farm size managed by these familiesis less then 1000.

Commercial Broiler chicken input market (June ‘09 )Differentinputs

Volume Rate (Rs) Total amount(Million Rs.)

PercentMarket share

Hatchingeggs (Lac no)

25.5 14 35.7 13.5

DOC (Lacno)

31.4 22 69.08 26

Feed (ton) 8478.0 17000 144.126 54.5Medicineand feedsupplement

5 X 31.4 15.70 6

Total 264.60~5.8 m USD 100

The Commercial sector


Inputs Rate(Rs.)

Amount / volumerequired

Total cost (Rs)

200 500 1000 200 500 1000DOC 20/DOC 200 500 1000 4000 10000 20000Feed 18/Kg 700 1750 3500 12600 31500 63000Littermaterials

60/ bag 5 12.50 25 300 750 1500

Medicines,vaccines anddisinfectants

5 / bird L.S. L.S. L.S. 1000 2500 5000

Labour 3000/ batch 1 1 1 3000 3000 3000Electricity 0.50 /bird L.S. L.S. L.S. 100 250 500Sheddepreciation

10% /annum(1.50)/sq.ft/batch

200 500 1000 300 750 1500

Total 21300 48750 94500

Cost of rearing: Small holder Commercial BroilerChicken ( June’2009)


Particulars( Cost as on June’09)

Farm size ( Number of birds )200 500 1000

Total chick placed (no) 200 500 1000Mortality (@5%) 10 25 50Live / Ready birds (no) 190 475 950Avg. Body wt (Kg)(FCR= 2:1)@1.75 kg per bird

332.5 333 831.25 831 1662.5 1663

Total cost of rearing 21300 48750 94500Cost of production /Kg in Rs (USD )

64.0( 1.42 )

58.66( 1.30 )

56.83( 1.26 )

Av.Market Price per Kg (Whole Sale as on June’09 )

Rs. 77 ( USD 1.7 )

Cost of Commercial Broiler meat Production inSmall holder farms vis a vis Price


It was the fifth incidence in India and third within the North-eastern region. The outbreak covered 10 districts within a span of27 days. Total of 5, 12,221birds were estimated to be susceptibleout of which 2,697 died and 5, 09,524 birds were culled.

The HPAI outbreak of 2008

15 out of 18epicenters,outbreak isreported inbackyardpoultry.


Average time required for suspect to confirmation is 4.6days. The longest time required for Confirmation to start ofoperation in one case is 36 days. Total down time /confusion period =6 months+ ( Nov-July’09, formal )

The Response


Regional Risk Assessment of HPAI:FAO, Bangkok 28-29 April,2010

September

November

Peak time

January

Investment t

Bird flu outbreak

June

No saleNofeed

Distress sale / Body wtlossCash eat up

Increase in demand

No cash/ credit torestart

Revival period(?)

Downtime

The sequence of events

JulyOfficial lifting of allsanctions

The Impact ( Quantitative )


The government of Assam incurred expense of about Rs.50million in conducting HPAI control operation during 2008outbreak. Out of this amount 34% went to compensation and66% went to logistics. (Cumulative number of RRT deployedin the operation was 3,184, Expense excludes cost ofsurveillance, diagnosis and law and order control etc.)

Total of 5, 12,221birds were estimated to be susceptible out ofwhich 2,697 died and 5, 09,524 birds were culled. Percent ofbirds culled in commercial sector is 78%. Similarly, destructionof feed, hatching egg etc. affected mostly commercial sector.

Total market value of poultry and poultry products destroyedduring the operation is approximately rupees 28 million.

The Impact ( Quantitative, Contd. )


Total compensation paid was rupees 17 million. This is 60.67percent of estimated market value of destroyed items. Farmerswho have not cooperated in the culling operation ( whereforces are being used to search and destroy) are excluded fromgetting compensation.

Due to complete ban on transport of poultry and poultry relatedproducts in the state, farmers of even non-infected zoneincurred losses. In some cases market ban was imposed in noninfected zone. Being rapid in nature, the study could notquantify this impact.

There is huge foregone Income across value chain during thedown time. The outbreak occurred amidst peak season –Sept –March. The loss for farmers alone can be quantified as morethan 200 million rupees. ( taking 6 month as down time ).


ParticularsAverage Market rate Oct- Nov’08

Volume Rate (Rs) Total amount(Million Rs.)

Market share(%)

Hatching eggs(Million no)

3.5 10 35 7.5

Doc ( Millionno)

3.14 17 53.38 11.5

Feed (ton) 8478.0 17 Per Kg 144.13 31Ready bird(Kg)

4455.0 53 Per Kg 236.12 50

Total 468.62 100

Calculation of down time losses for farmers

Cost of production, post bird flu is assumed at Rs. 45 per kg.Value of the ready bird at farm gate level = 4455 ton x Rs. 45000 = Rs. 200.48millionValue of ready bird after one month of rearing at whole sale rate: Rs. 236.12 millionIncome in a month : (Rs. 236.12 – 200.48)= Rs. 35.6 million

Other losses ( Not quantified )


Cost for keeping birds for extended period

Distress selling

Cost on employee and infrastructure maintenance

Cost of visiting offices / demonstration

Increased cost of borrowing ( Money lendersincreased the rate of interest, banks refused in absenceof government formal order )


Down time losses of Input sector ( A glimpse)

Keggs farm, UD Hatchery and Assam poultry ( all knownplayers ) had to destroy 15000, 8400, 10000 hatching eggsrespectively.

The Golaghat Poultry Project of Assam Livestock andPoultry Corporation (ALPCO) rearing improved deshi birdalso incurred loss as a consequence of the bird flu outbreakthough it remained in non-infected zone. Forced culling of4000 DOC was done, 16000 hatching eggs weredestroyed, 1900 parent stock died due to lack of feed.


Species of bird /input

Numberculled

Compensationrate ( Rs. perunit )

Total( Rs.)

CalculatedMarketrate ( Rsper unit )

Total( Rupees )

Adult backyard 48409 50 2420450 96 4647264Backyard chick 64563 20 1291260 20 1291260Adult commercial 202123 40 8084920 79.5 16068778.5Commercial chicks 167115 20 3342300 20 3342300Adult ducks / geese 25328 75 1899600 110 2786080Ducklings 1956 35 68460 35 68460Eggs 163166 2 326332 3 489498Feeds (Kg) 12795 6 76770 17 217515

Total 17510092 28911155.50

Culling Vs Compensation

Assumptions:Body weight: Adult backyard bird @ 1.2 Kg /bird; Adult commercial bird @1.5kg /birdMarket rate (whole sale rate): Adult backyard bird@ Rs. 80/Kg; Adult commercial bird@Rs. 53/Kg, ducks / geese Rs.110 per unit.

Impact ( Qualitative : Farm Level )

Loss of confidence on government’s capability to handle crisis. Strained relationship between farmers and vets participating in

culling operations. Feeling of being deceived ( Relating to false promises being

made by local administration ) Feeling of insecurity ( not being able to restock after culling and

/ or manage quality protein for family ) Feeling of being excluded ( Inadequate consultation, Arbitrary

fixing of compensation e.g. Nearly same compensation for tableand hatching egg )

Mental trauma ( e.g. culling in-front of Children, Vets / farmerwho reported incident of deaths are being humiliated by otherfarmers )

Loss of livelihood and insurance support for large number ofrural poor thriving on backyard poultry.


Impact ( Qualitative : Government Level )

Unexpected expense charged on existing central sector schemese.g. Assistance to States for Control of Animal Disease(ASCAD) resulted in to non completion of important plannedactivities under that schemes.

Increase allocation for future preparedness, awareness andcommunication.

‘Work Avoidance syndrome’ when it comes to promotion ofschemes meant for augmenting poultry link income /employment.

Increase realization of private sector role.

Realization of skill and man power gap in handlingemergencies.


Particulars Approx. QuantityBefore Outbreak 6 months

afterHatching Eggs ( Million numbers) 3.4 -3.6 2.5. -2.6

DOC( Million numbers)

In Assam 2.72- 2.88 2.0 -2.08Import 0.33- 0.35 0.25 –

0.275Total 3.05 – 3.23 2.25 – 2.36

Feed (in tons) 8235. 0 -8721. 0 6075. 0 -6353. 0

Ready birds(in tons)

In Assam 3672. 0 – 3888. 0 3037.5 –3179.25

Import 600. 0- 750. 0 1050. 0-1200. 0

Total 4272. 0 – 4638. 0 4087.5 –4379. 2

The Market: Pre and Post outbreak



Particulars As per average market of October – November’08and June ‘09 (whole sale rate)

Rate beforeoutbreak

Rate after outbreak Percent increase

Hatching eggs 10 12.75 27.5

Doc 17 24 41.18

Feed 17 18 6.0

Ready bird 53 77 45.0

The Inflation: Pre and Post outbreak

**The study could not record any decrease in demand of broiler Chicken

Major Observed Trend ( Post 2008 HPAI outbreak )

Emergence of Integration operation by establishedcompanies. ( Trader control market to Integrator controlmarket )

Predominantly credit to cash transactions at all levels. Decrease import of inputs e.g. Feed, Hatching egg etc. Increase inter state import of ready-bird. Price increase of finished products e.g. Chicken, Table

Egg Current growth trend is mostly in 500-1000 bird category. Farms above 1000 birds are showing a decrease scale of

operation.


Suggestions:


Strengthening of diagnostic infrastructure within the state. E.g.BSL-4 level diagnostic facilities

Strengthening of inter agency cooperation, capacity buildingand communication programs.

Careful handing of future containment operations involvingstakeholders and taking care of losses due to long down time.

Alternative arrangement for non-infected zones.

Development of dynamic database of poultry sector of Assam (Compulsory registration of farms through Industry / farmerassociations )

Support to development of tailor made business continuity kitfor use of value chain players.


This presentation is based on research supported by:

North Eastern Development and Finance Corporation Ltd.,Guwahati, Assam ( India )

Contact: [email protected]